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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Category: Crude Oil

The analysis published under this category are as follows.

Commodities

Friday, June 15, 2018

Can Saudi Arabia Prevent The Next Oil Shock? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

The ongoing speculation online about the future of cooperation between Russia and OPEC seems to be a little one-sided. The main point of discussion up until now has been the fact that, due to international pressure (such as Trump’s Twitter diplomacy, perceived Russian willingness to open up the taps and pressure from Asian consumers) Saudi Arabia will be willing to revoke its current production cut stance.

Current volatility in the global oil market is, according to most analysts, due to fears that markets are facing a severe threat. A doomsday scenario is being painted in the media which suggests that oil prices will collapse as Moscow and Riyadh allow for OPEC compliance to slip, and that a glut of Saudi crude will be hitting the market. This has been the leading theme in the last couple of days, after reporters stated that Moscow and Riyadh are ready to assist the market.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Commodities

Thursday, June 14, 2018

Crude Oil Price Targeting $58 ppb Before Finding Support / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Chris_Vermeulen

With the G7 meeting concluding and the world about to start reacting to what was said and what was heard, it is time to take a look at the Crude charts with our Advanced Fibonacci price modeling system.

Our research team, at www.TheTechnicalTraders.com, believes Crude will continue to drift lower over the next few weeks testing the $60 ppb level before breaching this support level and ultimately targeting $58 or lower.  Lacking a real resolution to the trade and other global issues, we believe continue global economic pressures will drive oil prices dramatically lower over time – at least through the Summer months.

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Commodities

Friday, June 08, 2018

Crude Oil Bullish Weekly Reversal vs. Bearish Monthly Reversal / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadia_Simmons

Crude oil moved significantly lower after topping at long-term retracement levels and since the monthly decline took place on big volume (biggest in almost a year), the black gold should move lower. But instead of moving lower this week, it seems to be forming a weekly bullish reversal. The individual daily volume levels were not low this week, so if the bullish reversal does indeed form, we’ll have a quite reliable bullish signal. Will the monthly bearish sign be invalidated? Will crude oil rally shortly?

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Commodities

Saturday, June 02, 2018

Crude Oil Price Bulls’ Wishes vs. Reality / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadia_Simmons

Wednesday’s rally that followed Tuesday’s reversal gave hope for a sustainable move higher. But only to those, who focus on the daily price movement only, without taking bigger picture into consideration. As we explained last Friday, there were bearish implications of the weekly candlestick pattern even before it was completed. In the following analyses we wrote the same about the monthly candlestick and since May is over, the candlestick is completed, and we can say that our previous expectations were met. What do the more long-term patterns indicate for the crude oil’s future and how much can we trust the recent rally?  

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Commodities

Thursday, May 31, 2018

Emerging Market Meltdown Could Undermine Oil Price Rally / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

Saudi Arabia and Russia just destroyed the oil price rally, potentially putting an end to all the speculation about what the group might do next. But higher production doesn’t necessarily mean higher oil prices are entirely out of the question, and in fact, the oil market is still faced with a ton of uncertainty.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Commodities

Friday, May 25, 2018

Crude Oil: It’s Here! / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadia_Simmons

In the previous alerts we let you know how the situation in the crude oil was becoming increasingly bearish, but that it was not yet bearish enough to justify any action regarding the price. The risk was still too high to do so, and we explained that waiting for the confirmation was the preferable course of action. The confirmation has arrived.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Commodities

Tuesday, May 22, 2018

How Close Are We to Oil Independence? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Rodney_Johnson

Almost two years ago, the Saudis acknowledged they had a problem. The price of oil was too low.

The oil-rich county had fought a surge in supply from American frackers by opening the taps, and the move pushed oil prices to their lowest level in decades.

Even though the Saudis and other OPEC members still held onto market share, they were bleeding cash because their government budgets were modeled on oil closer to $80 than $30.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Commodities

Thursday, May 17, 2018

IEA: High Oil Prices “Taking A Toll” On Demand / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

Geopolitics has taken over the oil market, driving oil prices up to three-year highs. The inventory surplus has vanished, and more outages could push oil prices up even higher. Yet, there are some signs that demand is starting to take a hit as oil closes in on $80 per barrel.

In the IEA’s May Oil Market Report, the agency said that OPEC might be needed to step in and fill the supply gap if a significant portion of Iran oil goes offline. Saudi Arabia suggested shortly after the U.S. announced its withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal that OPEC would act to mitigate any supply shortfall should it occur.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Commodities

Saturday, May 12, 2018

Trump’s Iran-Decision Did-not and Won’t Affect Oil Prices / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Andrew_Butter

:Unless U.S.A. decides to go to War to Impress Stormy Daniels.

  • By some reports, President Trump’s Iran-decision caused oil prices to “jump 3%”. Actually that was intra-day; the change day-on-day was 1.7%. The probability the mini-jump was not caused by the announcement is 59%; since the null-hypothesis needs less than 5% to be called “statistically-significant”, that’s not.  The probability is 86% if you do four-day changes, i.e. even less probable.
  •  The day after Benjamin Netanyahu made his presentation on Iran, oil prices dropped 2.8%; which, intriguingly, is “statistically significant” (P>[t]=0.0438*); perhaps  the markets’ take; was that they figured the likelihood of an interruption in Iranian oil supplies, or a war, was less likely, after they heard the presentation?
Read full article... Read full article...

 


Commodities

Friday, May 11, 2018

Navigating The Bullish Crude Cycle / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Science_Investing

From A Technical Analysis Perspective
Crude remains short-term bullish as long as the nearest WTI contract trades above the blue dotted horizontal support region.

Oil ran up and made higher highs inside the pale blue trend channel. The progress got confirmed by geopolitical newsflow. Moreover, the most important commodity price gained despite a stronger US dollar. A breakout above the January 2018 high got further traction after being retested at the end of April 2018. Oil prices surpassed the solid blue trendline spanning back to June 2016 this trading week. We asses that as a fake breakout as part of a leading diagonal. Oil prices are likely to correct into the 66.50-67.00 region before resuming the uptrend.

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Commodities

Saturday, April 21, 2018

Crude Oil Price Trend Forecast - Saudi Arabia $80 ARAMCO Stock IPO Target / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The crude oil price started 2018 with a BANG rising from an opening $60 to a January peak of $67, a gain of 12% in less than 1 month! Whilst February saw the oil price give up all of Januarys gains by falling from $67 to $58 before recovering towards the top of the emerging $67 - $58 trading range for March which set the scene for the current rally to a 3 year high of $69. Whilst new has emerged that the Saudi's are actively pursuing lifting the oil price to at least $80 in support of their mega $1 trillion+ ARAMCO IPO.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Commodities

Friday, April 20, 2018

Crude Oil Price Trend Forecast - Saudi's Want $100 for ARAMCO Stock IPO / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The crude oil price started 2018 with a BANG rising from an opening $60 to a January peak of $67, a gain of 12% in less than 1 month! Whilst February saw the oil price give up all of Januarys gains by falling from $67 to $58 before recovering towards the top of the emerging $67 - $58 trading range.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Commodities

Wednesday, April 18, 2018

The Bullish And Bearish Case For Oil Prices / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

Oil prices could rise due to the “perfect storm of stagnant supply, geopolitical risk, and a harsh winter,” according to an April 12 note from Barclays.

Geopolitical events specifically could help keep Brent above $70 through April and May, which comes on the back of a substantial decline in oil inventories.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Commodities

Tuesday, April 17, 2018

Crude Oil Price As Bullish as it Seems? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadia_Simmons

A fresh 2018 high, an unbroken resistance and negative divergence. What does this interesting mix tell us about oil bull’s strength and further increases?

Technical Analysis of Crude Oil

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Commodities

Saturday, April 14, 2018

The Oil Trade May Be Coming Alive / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: WMA

In all asset classes, following a major bear market, prices tend to stumble along at depressed levels – sometimes for years. Negative sentiment permeates across all types of investors, from the short-term traders to long-term retail investors. Once everyone is convinced that the paradigm has changed for the asset and prices at depressed levels are the “new normal”, the seeds will have been sown for the next bull market.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Commodities

Wednesday, April 04, 2018

Crude Oil Price Bears - Stay the Course / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadia_Simmons

What a day! The beginning of the new quarter, the new month and the new week was undoubtedly the triumph of oil bears. Thanks to their attack crude oil lost almost 3% in one day, which was the biggest decline since weeks. What impact did this drop have on the short-term outlook? Where are the nearest supports? For these and other questions you will find answers in today's alert.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Commodities

Tuesday, April 03, 2018

Crude Oil Price Rally Is Likely / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

Oil prices seesawed at the start of the week before jumping close to multi-year highs on geopolitical concerns, with Brent hitting $70 and WTI at $65. However, geopolitical pressure is only able to influence oil prices to such a degree because the market is fundamentally getting tighter.

Ongoing declines in Venezuela and concerns about heightened tension between the U.S. and Iran have significantly raised the risk premium for oil, even as some short-term factors recently pushed up prices.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Commodities

Thursday, March 29, 2018

Oil Prices Vs. Production: See the "Elephant" Almost Everyone Ignores / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: EWI

If production drives prices, how does oil rise 14x when production trends sideways for 10 years?

There's a widespread assumption that supply and demand drive oil prices. Almost all economists base their oil forecasts entirely on this premise, and so do many speculators.

If the oil industry ramps up production and increases supply, economists expect a drop in oil prices. If production decreases, or some other factors hint at supply constraints, they anticipate a rise in oil's price.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Commodities

Wednesday, March 28, 2018

Petroyuan and Gold - The Single Biggest Change in Capital Markets of All Time / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Michael_J_Kosares

“China’s launch on Monday of its crude futures exchange will improve the clout of the yuan in financial markets and could threaten the international primacy of the dollar, argues a new report by Hayden Briscoe, APAC head of fixed income at UBS Asset Management. ‘This is the single biggest change in capital markets, maybe of all time,’ Briscoe said in a follow-up telephone interview.” – Kate Duguid, Reuters, 3-26-2018

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Commodities

Friday, March 16, 2018

Crude Oil Price – Who Wants the Triangle? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadia_Simmons

On Thursday crude oil wavered between small gains and losses, but finished the day only 23 cents above Wednesday closing price. Such small daily changes that we observe recently don’t look too encouraging for oil bulls or for the bears. However, to dispel boredom, we rummaged deeper in the charts and we found something that may interest both sides of the market’s battle. Curious?

Nevertheless, before we get to our little surprise, we would like to draw your attention to news from the IEA. Yesterday, the International Energy Agency said that global oil supply increased by 700,000 barrels per day from a year ago in the previous month. Additionally, we find out that supplies from producers outside of the OPEC will grow by 1.8 million bpd this year versus an increase of 760,000 bpd last year (mainly due to the rapidly growing production in the U.S.).

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Commodities

Friday, March 02, 2018

Crude Oil Market Fears: War, Default And Nuclear Weapons / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

The U.S. is one of the few areas of the world in which there is an energy investment boom underway, a development that could smooth out the uncertainties of geopolitical events around the world. At the same time, outside of the U.S., there is a deterioration of stability in many oil-producing regions, aggravating risks for both oil companies and the oil market, according to a new report.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Commodities

Friday, March 02, 2018

Crude Oil – It Smells Like… Profits / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadia_Simmons

Although oil bulls pushed black gold higher after yesterday market’s open, their triumph was very short-lived. Looking at the daily chart, it even tempts to say that their rally took place on an empty tank. Why? Because thanks to yesterday’s decline oil bears not only made short positions more profitable, but also gained next pieces to their puzzle. Let's check them together in today's alert.

Today's alert will start a little differently than usual, because we will take you on a small journey to the past and we’ll recall the quote from our Oil Trading Alert posted on Friday:

(…) In our opinion, the pro-bearish scenario is also reinforced by the fundamental factors. (…) EIA data showed that the U.S. output remains above 10 million barrels per day, which keeps domestic production on track to meet the earlier estimate for an increase to 11 million barrels per day in late 2018. If American drillers will not let down, the U.S. will overtake Russia in crude oil production and become the largest global supplier. Such development will likely not please Saudi Arabia and may thwart OPEC efforts to reduce black gold’s stockpiles, increasing worries over another crude oil glut. In such an environment oil bulls could have problems keeping the price not only above $60, but also above the psychological barrier of $50.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Commodities

Tuesday, February 27, 2018

Crude Oil Price Trend Forecast for March 2018 / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The crude oil price started 2018 with a BANG, rising from an opening $60 to a January peak of $67, that's a 12% gain in less than 1 month!

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Commodities

Friday, February 23, 2018

Relationship Between Crude Oil and U.S. Dollar in February 2018 / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadia_Simmons

On Thursday, the price of black gold moved higher after the EIA weekly report showed an unexpected decline in crude oil inventories. Is this one bullish factor strong enough to push light crude higher in the following days? What did the buyers miss?

Yesterday, the Energy Information Administration reported that crude oil inventories declined by 1.6 million barrels in the week ended Feb. 16, beating expectations for a gain of around 1.8 million barrels. This first in four weeks decline in crude oil stocks in combination with a smaller than expected increase in gasoline inventories and drop in distillates supplies encouraged oil bulls to act. As a result, the price of black gold climbed to an intraday high slightly above $63, but did this increase change the short-term outlook for crude oil?

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Commodities

Saturday, February 17, 2018

Crude Oil Prices: A Case of Dueling Narratives? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: WMA

There are indications Crude Oil prices are going lower. There are also indications that it’s going higher. Which narrative do you believe?

Oil Bears point to what they believe is over-supply caused by soaring US production, mostly from shale fields. With production increasing over +20% in less than two years, and drill rigs on the rise, the US now produces about as much Oil as the industry leaders, Saudi Arabia and Russia. According to the Oil Bears, the Saudi-Russia pact to restrain global production and export levels will break down in 2018, thereby leading to more supply than demand, causing lower prices. Moreover, the Bears are confident that alternative energy supply (e.g., solar/battery and uranium) will eventually win out as it is a cheaper and cleaner power source, and that Electric Vehicles are increasingly favored by consumers.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Commodities

Wednesday, February 14, 2018

Understanding Crude Oil Behavior / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadia_Simmons

On Monday, oil bulls extended gains after Friday's invalidation of the breakout, which together with the buy signal generated by the Stochastic Oscillator suggest further improvement. A least at the first sight. But does watching the room through the keyhole give us a full picture of what's inside? We also think so, therefore, we invite you to analyze a broader picture of crude oil.

Let’s analyze the charts below (charts courtesy of http://stockcharts.com).

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Commodities

Friday, February 09, 2018

Crude Oil $100 Price in 2019? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: EconMatters

The stock market is a dangerous place to be right now. Watching VIX spiked from 17 to 50+ then crashing back to 30 within two days can certainly cause a cardiac arrest or two. What’s even worse is that investors took this little dip as a buying opportunity throwing more good money at this deformed market. On Tuesday U.S. stocks rebounded to post the biggest rally in 15 months. We have discussed many times that stocks have a long way to go before any normalcy may be restored. On that note, let’s move to the oil/gasoline market instead.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Commodities

Wednesday, February 07, 2018

Oil Prices Ravaged By Financial Turmoil / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

Oil prices fell back suddenly over the last few trading sessions, dragged down by some forces beyond the oil market.

The steady decline of the U.S. dollar has helped drive up crude prices for weeks, but that came to an abrupt halt last week. A rebound for the greenback led to a steep decline in oil prices on Friday.

At the same time, sudden turmoil in the broader financial system also bled over into the oil market. Volatility in the stock market flared up on Friday, sparking the sharpest single-day upheaval in years.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Commodities

Tuesday, January 30, 2018

Why Is The Shale Oil Industry Still Not Profitable? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

Echoing the criticism of too much hype surrounding U.S. shale from the Saudi oil minister last week, a new report finds that shale drilling is still largely not profitable. Not only that, but costs are on the rise and drillers are pursuing “irrational production.”

Riyadh-based Al Rajhi Capital dug into the financials of a long list of U.S. shale companies, and found that “despite rising prices most firms under our study are still in losses with no signs of improvement.” The average return on asset for U.S. shale companies “is still a measly 0.8 percent,” the financial services company wrote in its report.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Commodities

Friday, January 26, 2018

What Could Push Crude Oil To $100? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

If anyone thought the latest oil market outlooks of the EIA and the IEA are upbeat, here’s an even more upbeat one from Energy Aspects: The consultancy expects crude demand this year to grow by 1.7 million bpd, and says Brent could touch above $100 a barrel in 2019.

According to Energy Aspects, the reason for the further jump in prices will be a drop in new production outside the U.S. shale patch. It’s a little hard to buy that, however, if one remembers that there is 1.8 million bpd in production capacity ready to be tapped again once OEPC and Russia taper their production cuts. That alone should take care of the demand growth that the consultancy predicts for this year. That is, unless it booms by 2 million bpd, which is the top of the range forecast by Energy Aspects. But even then, the U.S. and Russia alone could take care of it: The Russian state majors are itching to expand production in eastern Siberia.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Commodities

Monday, January 22, 2018

Who Will Take Control in Crude Oil Market? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadia_Simmons

Trading position (short-term; our opinion): No positions are justified from the risk/reward perspective.

Although the EIA weekly report showed that crude oil inventories dropped for a ninth straight week and distillate stockpiles fell more than expected, U.S. production outweighed positive news. But did yesterday price action change anything in the technical picture of black gold?

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Commodities

Thursday, January 18, 2018

Crude Oil Sweat, Blood and Tears / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadia_Simmons

Trading position (short-term; our opinion): No positions are justified from the risk/reward perspective.

On Tuesday, crude oil hit a fresh 2018 high of $64.89, but then reversed and declined very quickly, erasing most of Friday increase. What encouraged oil bears to act and how did this decline affect the short-term picture?

Yesterday, the Energy Information Administration said that U.S. oil output is expected to continue its rise to 6.55 million barrels per day (with production from shale rising by 111,000 bpd) in the coming month, which encouraged oil bears to act. As a reminder, before the Friday market closure, they received one more reason to act – the Baker Hughes report, which showed that the oil rig count jumped by 10 to 752 (to the highest level since the beginning of September 2017). What impact did the above-mentioned circumstances have on the daily chart of crude oil?

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Commodities

Tuesday, January 16, 2018

Crude Oil is Starting 2018 Strong but there's Undeniable Risk to the Downside / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Boris_Dzhingarov

Crude oil is starting out strong in 2018 as both the international Brent benchmark and the West Texas Intermediate continue to book price gains. The gains in crude oil prices this year is riding the waves of the uptrend in oil prices that began in 2017. Now, the U.S. West Texas Intermediate is trading up around $63.57 per barrel and the Brent crude is trading up around $69.20 per barrel. 

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Commodities

Thursday, January 11, 2018

Why Oil Should Be Supported in Weekly Chart / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: ElliottWave-Forecast

Hello fellow traders, in this blog post, we will discuss oil in a more bigger picture.

In the chart below, you can see crude oil futures on the weekly chart.

From the 02/08/2016 low, we can clearly see that the market has a potential 5 swing incomplete bullish sequence. It seems like that it is still in the fifth swing. The weekly target for us is between 68.53-86.82. Please note a 5 swing sequence is different than 5 waves impulse. Overall, we can conclude that we need more upside in oil and we suggest members to buy the instrument in 3-7-11 swings to the upside.

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Commodities

Wednesday, January 10, 2018

Outlook for Crude Oil Prices / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Donald_W_Dony

Traders for Light crude oil continue to see higher price levels over the near term. Front-month futures prices reflect their bullish outlook (chart 1).

The expectation is for $63 to $65 per barrel by late Q1.

The one caveat is that U.S. production appears set to explode later this year.

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Commodities

Monday, January 01, 2018

Crude Oil Achieves $60 Forecast Expectations for 2017, $80 Next? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Bullish commodity traders and investors in the likes of oil and gold also saw strong positive returns for the year as Oil ended at its high for the year of $60 and Gold at $1310 both inline with my bullish expectations for these commodities for 2017.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Commodities

Monday, December 18, 2017

Who Knows What Will Black Gold Do in Coming Week? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadia_Simmons

On Thursday, crude oil moved a bit higher as oil investors turned their attention to the North Sea supply disruption. Although the price of black gold increased, the technical picture of the commodity doesn’t bode well for oil bulls. Why? We invite you to check our Oil Trading Alert. Have a nice read.

Yesterday, crude oil came back above $57 as oil investors focused on the Forties pipeline, which carries North Sea oil to Britain. Nevertheless, we should keep in mind that the above-mentioned disruptions will physically mostly affect the North Sea region. In other words, we think that the shale drilling and the last week increase in the U.S. production (which approached the output levels of top producers - Russia and Saudi Arabia) are more important for the price of light crude. Therefore, in our opinion, it is worth waiting for today's Baker Hughes report before we get excited about yesterday's increase and its “bullish” implications. Having said that, let’s examine the technical picture of crude oil (charts courtesy of http://stockcharts.com).

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Commodities

Thursday, December 14, 2017

WTI Crude Oil Elliott Wave Analysis / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Submissions

Science Investing writes: Short Term Price Trend

WTI crude oil started a bullish trend in June 2017. We forecast further upside in the crude oil complex.

For the past month we’ve witnessed a sideways movement in the WTI. It may have traced out a triangle pattern. The move from the 24th of November top looks complex, which is typical for a C-wave of a triangle. Triangles typically resolve into the direction of the greater trend. Hence we forecast price action to the upside short term.

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Commodities

Thursday, December 07, 2017

The One Oil Market Indicator OPEC Must Watch / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

“We will not let go of our current approach until we reach a balanced market,” Saudi oil minister Khalid al-Falih said Monday at a news conference in Riyadh.

OPEC ended months of speculation last week when it decided to extend its production cuts through the end of 2018, easing concerns that the limits would be lifted before the oil market was ready. But while it put some uncertainty to rest, the next question is what OPEC does when the oil market becomes “balanced”? What is the exit strategy?

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Commodities

Thursday, December 07, 2017

Crude Oil, Oil Stocks and Invalidation of Breakouts / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadia_Simmons

On Tuesday, crude oil wavered between small gains and losses, but finally closed another day under the upper border of the short-term rising trend channel. Will this show of oil bulls’ weakness trigger further deterioration in the coming days? Will the relationship between black gold and oil stocks give us more clues about future moves?

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Commodities

Wednesday, December 06, 2017

Crude Oil and Negative Divergences / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadia_Simmons

On Friday, crude oil increased and approached the November peak, but did this increase change anything in the broader perspective? Is it possible that the non-USD chart of crude oil give us more clues about black gold future moves?

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Commodities

Tuesday, December 05, 2017

Geopolitical Risk Isn’t Driving Rising Oil Prices / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: John_Mauldin

By GEORGE FRIEDMAN AND XANDER SNYDER : At the end of October, Brent crude prices crossed $60 per barrel for the first time in two years. They peaked at around $64.

Experts explained the spike with vague references to “geopolitical risk,” without really detailing what those risks entailed. Such explanations are not wrong, but they are careless.

A proper geopolitical risk assessment goes beyond vague wording. It contains a deep understanding of relevant economic, political, and military factors.

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Commodities

Wednesday, November 29, 2017

The Oil Information Cartel Is (Finally) Broken / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

By Keith Schaefer : The below article was written by Keith Schaefer of Oil and Gas Investments Bulletin

A determined James Stafford of OilPrice.com just busted wide open an oil industry information cartel that has existed for decades.

Most investors look at WTI and Brent prices at Bloomberg or CME Futures, and figure the oil price is in the public domain.  You would be about 2 percent correct, because there are hundreds of different grades of oil, and hubs where it is bought and sold.  And they all have different prices.

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Commodities

Tuesday, November 28, 2017

Tech Breakthrough Could Transform The Oil Sector / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

...

 


Commodities

Monday, November 27, 2017

OPEC Will Extend The Production Cut / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

There will be an OPEC deal extension—no matter the public tussling between opposing forces in the industry cartel—if the world's largest oil producers are really determined to end the supply glut.

A failure to agree on the market remediation would cause oil prices to plummet immediately, forfeiting any gains that have been made in the last year.

Saudi Arabia needs $60 per barrel for its Aramco initial public offering to be a success in the second half of next year. It plans to sell just five percent of its prized company in the largest IPO in financial history, but a low price could force the country to sell a larger share, siphoning off government revenues at a time of strained budgets.

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Commodities

Monday, November 20, 2017

Crude Oil – General Market Link / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadia_Simmons

On Thursday, the overall situation in crude oil hasn’t changed much as the commodity wavered around the January peak. Will the relationship between black gold and the general market give us more clues about future moves?

Crude Oil’s Technical Picture

Let’s examine the technical picture of the commodity (charts courtesy of http://stockcharts.com).

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Commodities

Friday, November 17, 2017

Crude Oil – Gold Link in November 2017 / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadia_Simmons

In recent weeks, it was hard to avoid the topic of crude oil, turning on the TV or opening a newspaper. Developments in the Middle East, escalating tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran, the upcoming meeting of OPEC and non-OPEC ministers as well as the Baker Hughes reports, crude oil and its products inventories were mainly in the interest of investors.

Since our last Oil Investment Update, light crude extended gains and hit fresh 2017 highs. Black gold’s rally, which began in early October, has been mainly driven by growing indications that the crude market was finally starting to rebalance and hopes that the OPEC cuts agreement would be extended beyond March 2018.

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Commodities

Tuesday, November 14, 2017

Is Peak Permian Only 3 Years Away? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

The world’s hottest shale basin, the Permian, is leading the second U.S. wave of tight oil production growth and will continue to do so for years to come, all analysts say.   

However, signs have started to emerge that the relentless intensification of drilling leads to diminishing returns, Simon Flowers, Chairman and Chief Analyst at Wood Mackenzie, said in an article this week. Pumping twice as much sand as usual into Permian wells and drilling longer laterals doesn’t deliver commensurate volumes of oil, Flowers notes.

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Commodities

Friday, November 10, 2017

Oil markets turn bullish with shift to backwardation / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: ElliottWave-Forecast

This week both Brent Crude and WTI (Light Sweet Crude Oil) made a new price high in more than 2 years with Brent Crude rising to $64 per barrel and WTI to $57 per barrel. These price gains come before the OPEC’s meeting later this month on Nov 30. In the past two years, OPEC has imposed production cuts in its member countries in order to remove excess inventory and halt the price drop. In their last meeting on May, the cartel agreed to extend 1.8 million barrel a day cuts into the first quarter of 2018.

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Commodities

Wednesday, November 08, 2017

How Much is Too Much: Oil’s Upside Price Target / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadia_Simmons

Crude oil’s price continues to soar in a sharp manner, but no asset can move in a straight line without periodic corrections so even if crude oil’s price was about to rally tens of dollars (which doesn’t appear so likely to be seen this year, but that is a discussion for a different day), one should still expect it to form local tops along the way. Where will crude oil top and where can it provide us with a promising trading opportunity?

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Commodities

Friday, October 27, 2017

Bullish Opportunity in Crude Oil - Watch Out! / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Enda_Glynn

My Bias: topping in a large correction wave [4].
Wave Structure: Double combination higher in wave [4] red.
Long term wave count: wave [4] target $70

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Commodities

Wednesday, October 25, 2017

The 5 Countries That Could Push Oil Prices Up / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

Oil prices appear to be stuck in the $50s per barrel, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t serious supply risks to the market.

An unexpected disruption could occur at any moment, as has happened in the past, leading to a sudden and sharp jump in prices. Geopolitical tension has been largely irrelevant since the collapse of oil prices in 2014, but it’s making a return now that cracks have emerged in some key oil-producing nations. The threat of an outage will carry more weight as the oil market tightens.

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Currencies

Tuesday, October 24, 2017

Crude Oil – Major Resistances Hold / Currencies / Crude Oil

By: Nadia_Simmons

On Friday, crude oil bounced off session’s low and closed the previous week slightly below $52. Did it change anything in the short term?

Crude Oil’s Technical Picture

Let’s examine the charts below (charts courtesy of http://stockcharts.com).

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Commodities

Monday, October 09, 2017

If 'Bottoming Pattern' Develops, Oil Bear Market May Be Over / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: The_Gold_Report

Technical analyst Jack Chan charts the latest moves in the oil and gas markets.

$OSX is on a major sell signal.

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Commodities

Thursday, October 05, 2017

Electric Cars Oil Paradigm Shift Dead Ahead / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Spock

The Chinese are holding their next national congress assembly from 18th October. This is a major event where macro policy for China is agreed and implemented. On the agenda will be the electrification of national road transport, with a plan to be all electric by 2050. This will achieve two objectives: Reduce pollution in the major cities and to be the global leader in the electric vehicle (EV) technology, and associated technologies. The Chinese are also building the infrastructure around the concept, including a huge electric grid upgrade across the country over the next 10 years, to cope with the additional load.

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Commodities

Tuesday, October 03, 2017

Will Crude Oil Drop under $50 in Coming Week? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadia_Simmons

Although the price of black gold increased a bit on Friday, the commodity closed the whole week below important resistance lines and invalidated earlier breakouts. What does it mean for crude oil?

Crude Oil’s Technical Picture

Let’s take a closer look at the charts below and find out (charts courtesy of http://stockcharts.com).

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Commodities

Tuesday, September 12, 2017

Crude Oil Price Invalidated Breakout – What’s next? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadia_Simmons

On Friday, crude oil moved sharply lower and lost over 3% after investors digested the EIA report and reacted to the increase in crude oil inventories. Thanks to these circumstances, light crude invalidated the earlier breakout above the resistance area and slipped well below $48. What does it mean for the commodity?

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Commodities

Thursday, September 07, 2017

Hurricane Harvey’s Short-Term Impact May Be Higher Oil Prices / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: John_Mauldin

Harvey hit hard the heart of the US oil industry.

So far, it has shut down 11.2 percent of US refining capacity (about one-third of all US refining capacity is in Texas’ Gulf Coast) and roughly 25 percent of US oil production from the Gulf of Mexico (accounting for about 20 percent of US crude production). It has also closed all ports along the Texas coast.

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Commodities

Wednesday, September 06, 2017

How EIA Guestimates Keep Crude Oil Prices Subdued / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

The EIA has once again undercut its previous estimates for U.S. oil production, offering further evidence that the U.S. shale industry is not producing as much as everyone thinks.

The monthly EIA oil production figures tend to be more accurate than the weekly estimates, although they are published on several months after the fact. The EIA just released the latest monthly oil production figures for June, for example. Meanwhile, the agency releases production figures on a weekly basis that are only a week old – the latest figures run up right through August.

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Commodities

Friday, August 25, 2017

Crude Oil – Declining Inventories vs. Climbing Production / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadia_Simmons

On Wednesday, light crude gained 1.21% after the EIA weekly report showed declines in crude oil and gasoline inventories. As a result, the black gold came back above the lower border of the trend channel, but can we trust this increase?

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Commodities

Thursday, August 24, 2017

The Next Oil Price Spike May Cripple The Industry / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

Two diametrically opposed views dominate the current debate about where the oil price is heading. On the one hand, there is the view that the price of oil will be "lower for longer", or even "lower forever", as the electrification of transport will eat away at oil demand more and more while, at the same time, technological innovation (shale in particular) will greatly increase economically recoverable resources. On the other hand, however, there is the view that the price of oil is set to explode, primarily due to underinvestment in the upkeep of brownfields, development of greenfields, and exploration for new resources.

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Commodities

Saturday, August 19, 2017

EIA Weekly Report and Crude Oil / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadia_Simmons

Although the EIA weekly report showed a larger-than-expected decline in crude oil inventories, the price of the commodity declined sharply after news that U.S. crude oil production increased. Thanks to these circumstances, light crude lost 1.62% and closed the day under important support. What does it mean for the black gold?

Yesterday, the Energy Information Administration reported that crude oil inventories dropped by over 8.9 million barrels in the week ended Aug 11, easily beating expectations of a draw of around 3 million barrels. Despite these bullish numbers (and the fact that it was the seventh straight week of declines in crude oil inventories), the report also showed that gasoline inventories rose by 22,000 barrels and distillate stockpiles rose by 702,000 barrels, missing analysts’ forecasts of a draw. On top of that, the EIA also showed that crude oil production increased to 9.502 million barrels per day, which renewed worries over the supply glut and pushed the price of light crude below $47 and important support. What does it mean for the black gold?

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Commodities

Friday, August 11, 2017

Crude Oil Price Precious Metals Link in August / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadia_Simmons

In the previous month crude oil gained almost 9% as declines in crude oil, gasoline and distillates inventories continued to support the price of the commodity. In that environment light crude climbed above the psychologically important barrier of $50 and closed July above it. Despite this bullish development, the price of the black gold slipped below it at the beginning of August. Is this just a bigger pullback or the first sign of a longer correction? Is it possible that the oil-to-gold and oil-to-silver ratios give us more clues about crude oil future moves?

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Commodities

Tuesday, August 08, 2017

Crude Oil Price Important Levels to Watch / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadia_Simmons

On Friday, light crude moved higher and gained 1.12%, which resulted in a comeback above the previously-broken 200-day moving average. Is it enough to encourage oil bulls to act in the coming week?

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Commodities

Wednesday, August 02, 2017

This Oil Price Rally Has Reached Its Limit / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

Last week, crude oil rallied the most so far this year, gaining more than 8 percent, or $4 per barrel. Oil traders are much more optimistic than they were just a month ago, and the market is on the upswing. However, the rally could run out of steam in the not-so-distant future, a familiar result for those paying attention to the oil market in the last few years.

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Commodities

Tuesday, August 01, 2017

Crude Oil – Gold Link in July / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadia_Simmons

On Friday, crude oil moved higher and hit a July peak supported by a weakening U.S. dollar and bullish Wednesday’s EIA weekly report. As a result, the black gold climbed above the 200-day moving average, but is it enough to trigger a rally above $50?

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Commodities

Monday, July 31, 2017

... / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

....

 


Commodities

Saturday, July 29, 2017

Chinese Leverage To Kill Petro-Dollar / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Jim_Willie_CB

The Chinese Govt is greatly irritated by the requirement to use USDollars in payment for crude oil in the global market. The Beijing officials finally have some leverage in arranging for a major deal to pay for crude oil in RMB currency, their Yuan. The negotiations have been in progress for a couple months. The development is not covered well in the financial press, not even in the alternative media. It will happen, just a matter of time. Its effect will be far reaching and likely devastating.

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Commodities

Thursday, July 27, 2017

Is Big Oil planning its Funeral by ignoring the obvious? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Sol_Palha

Many of the reports published that cover oil consumption and how quickly consumers will embrace Electric Vehicles (EV) paint a far rosier outlook for the future of oil than the facts dictate. The reason is simple; most of these reports tend to be written or sponsored by big oil and so they tend to be biased.  We are not stating that this is the end of oil, but its glory days are probably behind it.  One thing is obvious; the peak oil theory experts are and were always full of rubbish. In fact, we penned several articles over the years covering this issue the latest of which was titled “peak oil debunked”.
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Commodities

Thursday, July 27, 2017

Will Crude Oil Extend Gains? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadia_Simmons

On Tuesday, crude oil extended gains and hit a fresh July high, but will we see further rally in the coming days?

Crude Oil’s Technical Picture

Let’s take a closer look at the charts and find out (charts courtesy of http://stockcharts.com).

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Commodities

Friday, July 21, 2017

“Dirty, Difficult, And Dangerous”: Why Millennials Won’t Work In Oil Industry / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

By Tsvetana Paraskova : Like many industries today, the oil industry is trying to sell its many job opportunities to the fastest growing portion of the global workforce: Millennials. But unlike any other industry, oil and gas is facing more challenges in persuading the environmentally-conscious Millennials that oil is “cool”.

During the Super Bowl earlier this year, the American Petroleum Institute (API) launched an ad geared toward Millennials, who now make up the largest generation in the U.S. labor force.

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Commodities

Sunday, July 16, 2017

The Technical Failure That Could Clear The Oil Glut In A Matter Of Weeks / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

OPEC exports have come under pressure this week from technical threats to oil fields, with Saudi Arabia’s Manifa problems grabbing the headlines.

Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser, while addressing the World Petroleum Congress in Istanbul, stated that the outlook for oil supplies is “increasingly worrying”, due to a loss of $1 trillion ($1000 billion) in investments last year. The skepticism shown by a majority of financial analysts and oil commentators about the real threat to global oil (and gas) production volumes was countered by the news that the production at Saudi Aramco’s main offshore oil field, Manifa, has been hit by technical problems. News sources reported that the output from Saudi Aramco's massive Manifa oilfield has been hit by a technical problem.

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Commodities

Thursday, July 06, 2017

Don’t Hold Your Breath For Deeper OPEC Oil Cuts / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

The rally in oil prices over the past two weeks came to a halt on Wednesday on news that OPEC is actually exporting more oil than previously thought.

A month ago, oil prices appeared to be higher than they should have been, with weak demand, elevated inventories, and a recognition that the nine-month OPEC extension would be inadequate to balance the market. Oil sold off and dropped to the mid-$40s and below. Oil traders then bought on the dip, and bid prices back up over the past two weeks. Now, prices again look like they could be reaching an upper limit.

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Commodities

Friday, June 30, 2017

How High Could Crude Oil Price Go? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadia_Simmons

On Wednesday, the black gold gained 1.13% after encouraging the EIA weekly report. As a result, light crude climbed to the previously-broken lower border of the trend channel, but closed the day below it. Will we see further improvement in the coming days?

Although yesterday’s EIA weekly report showed that crude oil inventories rose by 118,000 barrels in the previous week (missing expectations of a draw), the report also showed that gasoline inventories, dropped by 894,000 barrels (beating analysts’ forecasts), while distillate stockpiles declined by 223,000 barrels and beat expectations of a rise of 453,000 barrels.

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Commodities

Thursday, June 29, 2017

Is A Big Move In Oil Prices Due? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

In options trading, a straddle is literally a sit-on-the-fence strategy. By purchasing a put and a call at the same strike (price of underlying commodity) for the same time period, an investor isn’t making a conventional directional bet; rather the investor is looking for a big move either up or down. The rub is that the big move must be greater than the sum of the two option premia or the bet goes south. But that is in the nature of the trade.

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Commodities

Wednesday, June 28, 2017

Crude Oil Sinks 20%: Why "Oversupply" Isn't the Half of It / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: EWI

Oil prices have defied bullish efforts to curb oversupply. Here's our take on why.

I have a friend... let's call him Larry. Let's just say, Larry is not a fan of taking risks. He likes his reflexes fast, his cars slow, and his financial markets secure for the long haul.

So, when Larry called me up at the beginning of this year to say he's boarding the highly-volatile crude oil market, I was appropriately stunned. But here's the thing. He was still being "wary Larry," meticulously weighing the risks. It just so happens they seemed to pale in comparison to the overwhelming rewards.

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Commodities

Tuesday, June 27, 2017

Crude Oil In A New Bear Market? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Chris_Vermeulen

The newest bear market is in crude oil. The definition of a bear market is when an ‘asset class’ is down more than 20% from its recent high: (Bear Market Rally Definition Investopedia).  It has been more than five years since the market fell so hard so fast from its’ high. Two months later, it was even lower. During the past 20 years, the SPX has struggled when oil fell into a bear market!

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Commodities

Tuesday, June 27, 2017

Is There Still Hope For Higher Oil Prices? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

Oil prices have cratered in recent weeks, dipping to their lowest levels in more than seven months and any sense of optimism has almost entirely disappeared. All signs point to a period of “lower for longer” for oil prices, a refrain that is all too familiar to those in the industry.

WTI dipped below $44 per barrel on Tuesday, and the bearish indicators are starting to pile up.

Libya’s production just topped 900,000 bpd, a new multi-year high that is up sharply even from just a few weeks ago. Libyan officials are hoping that they will hit many more milestones in the coming months. Next stop is 1 million barrels per day (mb/d), which Libya hopes to breach by the end of July.

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Commodities

Friday, June 23, 2017

Crude Oil, Fresh Lows and Support Zone / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadia_Simmons

On Wednesday, the black gold moved lower once again after government data showed an increase in crude oil production, which offset a decline in crude oil and gasoline inventories. Thanks to these circumstances, light crude hit a fresh 2017 low. What’s next for the commodity?

Let’s take a closer look at the charts and find out (charts courtesy of http://stockcharts.com).

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Commodities

Wednesday, June 21, 2017

This Chart Proves That Low Oil Prices Can’t Stop US Shale Oil Surge / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: John_Mauldin

By Geopolitical Futures, Mauldin Economics : The US has benefited from the shale revolution more than any other country. Not only does it have vast shale formations, most of its wells are located within its territory. That means producers don’t have to compete for jurisdiction or share their profits.

Shale oil is enmeshed in shale rock, which is located thousands of feet beneath the Earth’s surface and is generally less permeable than other rock types—making deposits more difficult to access.

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Commodities

Tuesday, June 20, 2017

CRUDE OIL UPDATE- “0.30 risk is cheap for changing implication!” / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Stephen_Cox

Here are 5 charts of WEEKLY CRUDE OIL, telling their interesting MRI 3D story (TIME, PRICE and DEPTH of 4 chart frames) on MAJOR WEEKLY TURNS. Some of these examples presented potentially low risk to high reward implications. The latest example was presented by CRUDE ADC (Daily) CLQ 17 (44.33) Monday.

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Commodities

Tuesday, June 20, 2017

Crude Oil Verifies Price Breakdown – Or Is It Something More? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadia_Simmons

On Friday, the black gold gained 1.15% and climbed to the previously-broken lower borer of the trend channel. Is this a verification of the earlier breakdown or something more?

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Commodities

Thursday, June 15, 2017

Charts That Explain Why The US Rule Oil Prices Not OPEC / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: John_Mauldin

BY GEORGE FRIEDMAN AND JACOB L. SHAPIRO : There’s no end in sight to slumping oil prices. That’s good news for consumers, but a dire trend for major oil producers like Saudi Arabia and Russia. And now, rising US oil production and exports are contributing to the slump.

Last week, oil prices reached new lows for 2017, with Brent crude dipping below $48 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate dipping below $46. The drop has been attributed to an unexpected increase in US crude inventories.

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Commodities

Friday, June 02, 2017

Has Permian Crude Oil Productivity Peaked? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

The U.S. shale industry might have just received a huge windfall with the nine-month extension of the OPEC cuts. Shale output was already expected to come roaring back this year, but the extension of the cuts provides even more room in the market for shale drillers to step into.

The sky is the limit, it seems. However, there are growing signs that the U.S. shale industry could be reaching the end of the low-hanging fruit. Or, more specifically, drilling costs are starting to rise and the enormous leaps in production that can be obtained by simply adding more rigs also appears to be running into some trouble.

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Commodities

Thursday, June 01, 2017

How Low Could Crude Oil Price Go? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadia_Simmons

Although crude oil climbed above the level of $50 yesterday, this improvement was very temporary and the black gold closed the day below this barrier. In this way light crude invalidated the earlier breakout, which will likely trigger further declines. How low could the commodity go in the coming days?

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Commodities

Monday, May 29, 2017

The Vienna Deal: Only Temporary Relief in Oil Markets / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Dan_Steinbock

The Vienna agreement among OPEC and non-OPEC oil producers will extend oil cuts by nine months. After the deal, oil price plummeted by about 5 percent. Far more is needed to subdue new economic uncertainty and market volatility.

Among the oil insiders, the decision to extend oil production cuts was seen as a done deal well before last week's Vienna meeting. But as I have argued in the past few years, investors seek assurances of longer production cuts. That is vital in an era of huge energy overcapacity.

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Commodities

Monday, May 22, 2017

What an America First Trade Policy Could Mean for the US Dollar / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: John_Mauldin

JACOB L. SHAPIRO : It was only a few months ago that OPEC, once the de facto arbiter of oil markets, seemed to have a plan to inflate the price of oil: The cartel, along with several non-OPEC members, agreed in December to cut production by roughly 1.2 million barrels per day.

And for the first quarter of 2017, OPEC largely made good on its pledge. It produced 1.1 million fewer barrels of oil per day in the first quarter of 2017 than it did in the final quarter of 2016. Saudi Arabia, OPEC’s largest producer, accounted for 55% of the cuts.

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Commodities

Thursday, May 18, 2017

Here’s The Truth About Russia’s OPEC Crude Oil Cuts / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: John_Mauldin

By Geopolitical Futures : In December 2016, Russia joined OPEC in a pledge to cut oil production by roughly 1.2 million barrels per day.

And for the first quarter of 2017, OPEC largely made good on its pledge. It produced 1.1 million fewer barrels of oil per day in the first quarter of 2017 than it did in the final quarter of 2016.

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Commodities

Monday, May 15, 2017

Crude Oil Price Correction / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Ed_Carlson

    Crude gained $1.62/bbl. last week and closed at 47.84 but still below the 200-dma. BWI (bandwidth indicator) fell in non-confirmation of the rally.

Support is at 45.25. I suspect we will see a run to the 200-dma at 49.00 prior to new lows in crude however, the detrended oscillator is overbought warning of a pullback early this week.

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Commodities

Friday, May 12, 2017

Will Crude Oil Stocks Breaks above Medium-term Resistance Line? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadia_Simmons

In recent weeks crude oil came back below the barrier of $50, which triggered declines and resulted in a drop to almost six-month lows. Despite this move, oil bulls pushed the commodity higher, which resulted in an invalidation of the breakdowns under important support levels. What happened at the same time with oil stocks? Will we see higher values of the XOI in the coming weeks?

Let’s jump right into charts (chart courtesy of http://stockcharts.com) and find out what can we infer from them about future moves.

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Commodities

Thursday, April 20, 2017

2 Choke Points That Threaten Oil Trade Between Persian Gulf And East Asia / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: John_Mauldin

BY GEORGE FRIEDMAN : The flow of international trade has always been subject to geopolitical risk and conflicts. At all stages of the supply chain, trade inherently faces challenges posed by the geopolitical realities along a given route.

Some routes are more perilous and harder to navigate than others. One such trade route is the maritime path for transporting oil from Persian Gulf exporters to East Asian consumers. This route faces two major choke points that are unavoidable given geographic constraints.

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Commodities

Tuesday, April 18, 2017

Plungers Big Trade - The Oil Short / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Plunger

The big trade of this year positions oneself for the upcoming US recession. In speculating and investing if one can get the main concept right everything else falls into place. Various trades will branch off from this theme. The trade is not priced into the market at all since we are betting against the accepted narrative. We can use various proxies to play the trade, as just about anything economically sensitive may qualify. Base metal producers, car companies, sub prime financiers, retail establishments, the list goes on. The main vehicle I have chosen to execute the trade is the oil price. I have chosen this because both fundamentals and technicals indicate to me it is over priced and due for a fall. It trades deep and has a record of falling under distressed economic conditions.

"All that we see or seem is but a dream within a dream." - Edger Allan Poe

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Commodities

Tuesday, April 18, 2017

What Bullish Sentiment Means for Crude Oil Prices / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Ed_Carlson

Technical analyst Jack Chan charts a reversal in the oil markets and outlines his strategy.

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Commodities

Monday, April 17, 2017

History of the Post WWII Crude Oil Price From a Technical Perspective / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Plunger

This is part I of a 3-part series introducing Plunger's "Trade of the Year". This section gives a review of the oil price from 1946 to present explaining the essential forces which powered its price through various bull and bear markets. It explains how we ended up where we are today in the oil market. Part II will explore the macro forces driving today's economy which lays the groundwork for introducing my trade of the year in part III.

To acquire a broader view of oils path over the past century I highly recommend the following resources on the oil market. Daniel Yergin's "The Prize" is an in-depth review of the history of oil up to the First Gulf war. It is indispensable in understanding the growth of the industry. Other books provide entertaining color to the industry by reviewing the swashbuckling nature of the early players who formed the industry as independents. I recommend "The Big Rich" by Bryan Burrough and JP Getty's autobiography "The Way I See It". Finally, David Stockman's "The Great Deformation" is essential reading as it corrects all the false economic narratives of the past which have been masquerading as truth.

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Commodities

Friday, April 14, 2017

Supply Crunch Or Oil Glut: Investment Banks Can't Agree / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

In recent years, U.S. shale has thrown in another unknown in the mix of factors driving the price of oil. This year, shale output forecasts combine with OPEC's production cuts, geopolitical factors, and unexpected outages to further complicate supply/demand and oil price forecasts by Wall Street's major investment banks.

The biggest banks remain bullish on oil prices, expecting moderate price gains by the end of the year, even after last month WTI prices dropped below $50 for a couple of weeks.

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Commodities

Wednesday, April 05, 2017

When Will Russia Run Out Of Oil? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

On a global level, 2015 and 2016 marked the lowest level of new conventional oil discoveries since 1952. In 2016, only 3.7 billion barrels of conventional oil were discovered, roughly 45 days of global crude consumption or 0.2 percent of global proved reserves. Globally, exploratory drilling fell by almost 20 percent in 2015 and fell even further in 2016. Russia’s exploration activities, which were hit not only by plummeting oil prices but also by a targeted sanctions regime, suffered a double blow during this period. In 2015, only seven new hydrocarbon discoveries were made in Russia, three of them in the Baltic Sea. In 2016, oil and gas companies in Russia discovered 40 prospective fields, however, the 3P reserves of the largest among them, Rosneft’s Nertsetinskoye, amounted to 17.4 million tons. This stands in stark contrast with pre-sanction period achievements, for instance, 2014’s largest find, Pobeda, is believed to contain 130 million tons of oil and 0.5TCm of gas.

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Commodities

Friday, March 31, 2017

There Is No Such Thing As Peak Oil Demand / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

Notwithstanding that oil demand has increased for over 150 years, it will eventually stop increasing. If oil demand were to reach an actual peak, then the top might be easier to predict. As it stands, the forecast models of demand are likely predicting peak demand far later than it will be.

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Commodities

Friday, March 24, 2017

This Single Model Explains Crude Oil Price Swings / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: John_Mauldin

BY JARED DILLIAN : One of the things we learned when oil collapsed a couple of years ago—something I’ve written about previously—was that there was a positive feedback loop embedded in declining oil prices.

Basic economic theory would tell you that as the price declines, so does oil supply. But the opposite turned out to be true. The rice went down, and people pumped more!

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Commodities

Wednesday, March 22, 2017

An OPEC Oil Deal Extension Isn’t As Simple As It Sounds / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

It’s been six months now that oil prices have been reacting to OPEC, first to the possibility of an agreement, and then to the production cut deal itself, forged by OPEC to rebalance the market. The deal--initially aired as ‘an agreement to agree on a deal’ in September and signed at the end of November—will likely impact the market for at least the next six months.

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Commodities

Monday, March 20, 2017

Crude Oil Price Decline Continuation / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Bob_Loukas

I like this Crude oil decline, and to date, it has been a picture perfect Cycle’s development.  Members of The Financial Tap were already tracking that expectation in advance, and positioned well to take advantage.  But that big decline, which started on March 7th took many by surprise, judging by the extreme (Long) positioning seen with the COT report.  And if you were not already short before the move began, the speed of the decline made it nearly impossible to establish a new position thereafter.

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Commodities

Thursday, March 16, 2017

Crude Oil Price Outlook 2017 - Video / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadeem_Walayat

My crude oil in-depth analysis and concluding trend forecast for 2016 proved remarkably accurate, and so I get a lot of comments requesting a similar exercise for 2017. However my analysis has so far not lead me in the direction of the oil price, nevertheless my recent analysis on the SNP's latest call for a Scottish independence in an attempt at subverting BrExit, that eventually aim to convert into a video did include a brief look at the most probable prospects for the crude oil price for 2017 as being a significant factor with regards forecasting the outcome of the Scottish second referendum.

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Commodities

Sunday, March 12, 2017

Technical Update for Crude Oil: Brent and WTI / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: MarketsToday

Highlights: Brent Crude

  • Brent has been progressing upwards in an ascending trend channel for a number of months
  • Last week it broke down sharply from a tight symmetrical triangle or pennant pattern and through support of the 50-day exponential moving average (ema) before finding support around the 50-week ema and the 200-day ema. The low for the week was 51.18.
  • Brent is now likely to either:
    • bounce from here back up towards the breakdown level around 55.00 to test it as resistance, before turning back down, or
    • relatively quickly continue the descent to lower support levels
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Commodities

Wednesday, March 08, 2017

Is A Second OPEC Oil Cut On The Cards? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

OPEC’s coordinated effort to curtail global supply has so far managed to put a floor under oil prices, which have been sitting modestly above US$50 since the deal was announced at the end of November last year. But resurging U.S. shale has been capping the upside, and Brent has not breached US$58 per barrel. Analysts and experts are now mostly predicting that oil prices will remain below US$60 this year.

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Commodities

Saturday, March 04, 2017

Oil Market - You Won't Get a Clearer Warning Than This One / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: The_Energy_Report

Technical analyst Clive Maund charts changes that portend a "brutal decline" in both the oil and precious metals markets.

This quick update on oil is to point out that the latest oil COTs and Hedgers positions were at frightening extremes, as oil has struggled and failed, thus far, to break higher. This is viewed as meaning trouble—BIG TROUBLE—for the oil market, where we could see a precipitous drop as in 2014.

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Commodities

Wednesday, March 01, 2017

Next Crude Oil Price Rally? Futures Say Market Is Tightening / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

U.S. oil inventories are at record levels, but there are a few glimmers of hope that the glut could be starting to subside.

Storing crude oil for sale at a later date is no longer profitable, as the futures curve has flattened out in recent weeks, depriving traders of a strategy that has served them well over the past few years. The market “contango,” in which front-month oil contracts trade at a discount to oil futures six months or a year out, has all but vanished. The differential must be large enough to cover the cost of storage, and for many time spreads that is no longer the case. After three years of a steep contango, storing oil simply to take advantage of the time spreads is increasingly uneconomical.

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Commodities

Tuesday, February 21, 2017

Buy Zones in an Crude Oil Bull Market / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: The_Energy_Report

Technical analyst Jack Chan charts the latest moves in energy market, noting a major buy signal.

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Commodities

Monday, February 20, 2017

Brent Crude Oil Price Technical Update: Low Volatility Leads to High Volatility / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: MarketsToday

Since our last update on oil two months ago (Dec. 22, 2016) Brent Crude has not gone far, rising approximately 2.4% from 54.82 to 56.16 today. During this time it has traded within a relatively tight range (low volatility), from around a low of 53.61 to a high of 58.35.

The chart pattern that has formed in the past two months is either a bullish symmetrical triangle trend continuation pattern or a bearish head and shoulders top. Whichever way the breakout goes should confirm the next direction, either a continuation higher of the 13-month uptrend, or a deeper retracement off the 58.35 high.

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Commodities

Tuesday, February 07, 2017

Gold and Crude Oil Link – What Does It Say? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadia_Simmons

Trading position (short-term; our opinion): Short positions (with a stop-loss order at $56.45 and an initial downside target at $45.81) are justified from the risk/reward perspective.

On Monday, crude oil lost 1.52% after oil investors reacted to Friday’s Baker Hughes’ report, which showed that U.S. drillers added 17 rigs, which was the 13th increase in the past 14 weeks. Thanks to this news light crude reversed and declined to the previously-broken short-term support/resistance line. Will it manage to stop oil bears in the coming days? Is it possible that the relationship between gold and crude oil give us more clues about oil’s future moves?

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Commodities

Thursday, February 02, 2017

The Oil War Is Only Just Getting Started / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

It’s been a month now that investors and analysts have been closely watching two main drivers for oil prices: how OPEC is doing with the supply-cut deal, and how U.S. shale is responding to fifty-plus-dollar oil with rebounding drilling activity. Those two main factors are largely neutralizing each other, and are putting a floor and a cap to a price range of between $50 and $60.

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Commodities

Saturday, January 21, 2017

Time for Crude Oil Price Drop below $50? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadia_Simmons

Trading position (short-term; our opinion): Short positions (with a stop-loss order at $56.45 and an initial downside target at $45.81) are justified from the risk/reward perspective.

On Wednesday, crude oil lost 2.57% after the head of the IEA warned of a significant increase in U.S. shale output as OPEC and non-OPEC producers cut output. This news negatively affected the investors' sentiment and pushed the black gold under important support levels. What does it mean for light crude?

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Commodities

Tuesday, January 17, 2017

OPEC Oil Deal Already Showing Signs of Stress / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: AnyOption

Even though Saudi Arabia was quick to proclaim a victory at the outset of the year after reducing its own oil production to levels agreed upon in Vienna, there are numerous threats to the outlook for crude prices.  Despite claims that the move to reduce OPEC output will be enough to drain the approximate 300 million barrels in global oversupply within six months, a move by the Cartel and non-OPEC members to ramp up production afterwards could beckon the resurgence of global oversupply. 

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Commodities

Thursday, January 12, 2017

Crude Oil Prices Running Out Of Reasons To Rally / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

Oil prices faltered at the start of the second week of the year, as fears set in about a rapid rebound in U.S. shale production. For the better part of two months, optimism surrounding the OPEC deal has buoyed oil prices, but bullish sentiment from speculators are showing early signs of abating, raising the possibility that the oil rally is running out of steam.

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Commodities

Wednesday, January 04, 2017

Here’s the Real Oil Price Russia Needs to Break Even / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: John_Mauldin

BY JACOB SHAPIRO : We published our 2017 forecast earlier this week. One of our predictions is that Russia is in for a difficult year economically. This is because Russia’s economy depends significantly on oil.

The price of oil in 2016 has averaged roughly $43 a barrel. That’s a far cry from two years ago, when it was more than double. According to Russia’s Federal Customs Service, oil-export revenue accounts for 26 percent of total revenue from Russian exports. For an economy with exports making up almost 30 percent of GDP, that’s fairly significant.

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Commodities

Friday, December 16, 2016

Goldman Sachs is Talking Nonsense Again: Shale will not affect Global Oil Supply until Price hits $85 / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Andrew_Butter

Latest headline: “Goldman Sachs Warns the Saudis: ‘’U.S. Shale Will Respond’’”

http://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Goldman-Sachs-Warns-The-Saudis-US-Shale-Will-Respond.html

Reminds me of when we all used to sing-along the company song ”House Prices Always go up”; and why not? If you could get the suckers to buy that idea, selling them AAA-rated (toxic) collateralized debt obligations concocted by Goldman Sachs, was a synch. Ah...Goldman Sachs...the Divine God’s Workers; now they are experts on shale oil...what next...tropical fish? So now they are telling their customers “shale oil is a buy”, that means presumably, they are long and they are scrambling to unload their positions?

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Commodities

Thursday, December 08, 2016

Crude Oil and Gold, Silver Precious Metals Link / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadia_Simmons

Trading position (short-term; our opinion): Short positions (with a stop-loss order at $54.51 and initial downside target at $45.43) are justified from the risk/reward perspective.

On Tuesday, crude oil moved lower and lost 1.66% after data showed that OPEC production rose to about 34.2 million barrels per day in Nov, hitting another record high. In this environment, light crude slipped under $51 and approached the barrier of $50, and thus the short position that we had opened early during yesterday’s session were already profitable at its end. Will we see a drop below the key $50 level in the coming days?

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News_Letter

Thursday, December 08, 2016

Crude Oil Price Trend Forecast 2016 September Update / News_Letter / Crude Oil

By: NewsLetter

The Market Oracle Newsletter
15th September, 2016 Issue # 23 Vol. 10

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News_Letter

Thursday, December 08, 2016

Crude Oil Price Trend Forecast 2016 Implications for Stock Market / News_Letter / Crude Oil

By: NewsLetter

The Market Oracle Newsletter
17th May, 2016 Issue # 11 Vol. 10

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Commodities

Tuesday, December 06, 2016

Crude Oil Price New Highs Ahead Us? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadia_Simmons

Trading position (short-term; our opinion): No positions are justified from the risk/reward perspective.

On Friday, crude oil gained 1.21% as OPEC deal continued to support the price of the commodity. In this environment, light crude re-approached the Oct high. Will we see fresh 2016 peak in the coming week?

Let's take a look at the charts below to find out (charts courtesy of http://stockcharts.com).

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Commodities

Monday, December 05, 2016

Crude Oil Prices: "Random"? Hardly / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: EWI

The more emotional the market, the more predictable it is.

Last week's shocking spike in crude oil prices is +12% and counting, the biggest one-week gain in five years. Media stories blame one culprit: the November 30 OPEC agreement to cut production.

In absolute terms, the agreed-to cut is small: 1.2 million barrels a day, less than 2% of daily global oil production. Given the existing supply glut, that's a drop in the bucket (no pun intended). Yet, it was a bigger cut than the market expected; plus, the fact that OPEC members came to an agreement at all was enough to play a role in soaring prices.

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Commodities

Friday, December 02, 2016

Shale-War is over so $60 Brent Crude Oil by Christmas is highly probable: Next $85? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Andrew_Butter

In April this model (http://oilpro.com/...) predicted the Saudi’s would blink in Doha and Brent would see $60 by Christmas.

Well they did blink in Doha; they stopped talking about pumping an extra two-million barrels per day into the pot; incidentally that was just bravado; unless the plan was to stop using oil to make electricity...which would have been unpopular during the summer.

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Commodities

Wednesday, November 30, 2016

Breakdown and Slide in Crude Oil Price / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadia_Simmons

Trading position (short-term; our opinion): No positions are justified from the risk/reward perspective.
Crude oil gained 2.21% yesterday and came back above $47, but taking a dive today, confirming that closing the long positions yesterday and taking profits off the table was a good idea. Now, the question is how much does today’s decline actually change.
Let’s take a look at the charts to find out (charts courtesy of http://stockcharts.com).

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Commodities

Tuesday, November 22, 2016

Will Crude Oil Price Rally to $50? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadia_Simmons

Trading position (short-term; our opinion): Long positions (with a stop-loss order at $41.39 and initial upside target at $49.53) are justified from the risk/reward perspective.

On Friday, crude oil moved higher once again as optimism over an OPEC deal to limit production continued to weigh on investors' sentiment. In this environment, light crude gained 0.83% and closed the day above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. What does it mean for the commodity?

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Commodities

Friday, November 18, 2016

Crude Oil Bears State Prices Headed Lower - Bulls-Eye or Rubbish? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Sol_Palha

"Anxiety is a thin stream of fear trickling through the mind. If encouraged, it cuts a channel into which all other thoughts are drained." ~ Arthur Somers Roche

2015 was a terrible year for oil and it looked like 2106 would even worse; oil dipped below $30.00 and all cockroaches (oops we mean analysts) started to state $10.00 oil was next. When we heard this nonsense, we penned an article titled will the crude oil price crash become even worse in 2016?

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Commodities

Friday, November 18, 2016

Are The Saudis About To Reveal The Best Kept Secret In Oil? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

One of the oil world’s longest and best kept secrets may finally be revealed. Saudi Arabia is preparing to unveil how much oil it holds, a closely guarded state secret that has been kept quiet for decades.

The decision to bring such important data to light comes as Saudi Aramco is preparing to partially privatize its assets, an IPO that could bring in some $100 billion. The IPO will be a monumental event, one that the Wall Street Journal says could offer Wall Street some of the largest fees in history.

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Commodities

Friday, November 18, 2016

If Only These Two Things Come to Pass, Crude Oil Prices Will Rise / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: John_Mauldin

Will oil prices recover as Wall Street presumes? That depends on the balance of supply and demand. 

Climate change agreements notwithstanding, the world still burns and will go on burning a lot of fossil fuel. Slowing economic growth has reduced energy demand growth, but the absolute numbers remain strong. This will change as greener technology spreads, but very slowly.

The real mystery is on the supply side.

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Commodities

Wednesday, November 16, 2016

Non-USD Picture of Crude Oil / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadia_Simmons

Trading position (short-term; our opinion): Long positions (with a stop-loss order at $41.39 and initial upside target at $49.53) are justified from the risk/reward perspective.

Although crude oil moved lower after the markets open, oil bulls stopped further deterioration and triggered a rebound in the following hours. As a result, light crude erased most of earlier losses and closed the day above Friday’s low. What can we expect in the coming days?

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Commodities

Tuesday, November 15, 2016

OPEC’s Bearish Report Provides Little Hope For Oil Markets / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

Just one day after the IEA warned the world could drown in oil if production does not fall beneath demand sometime soon, OPEC released a new market whammy, offering up the cartel’s production figures, which largely jive with figures reported by the IEA yesterday: OPEC has increased its oil production.

OPEC’s Monthly Oil Market Report revealed daily oil production for the cartel of 33.64 million barrels for October—up by 240,000 bpd on September—largely confirming the IEA’s report, although the international authority’s figure was a bit higher at 33.83 million bpd.

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Commodities

Wednesday, November 09, 2016

Uncertainty about OPEC and US Election Leads to Oil Price Drop / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Jason_Hamlin

During the third quarter of 2016, global gold production dropped by 0.5%. Miners brought 846.8t onto the market versus 851.2t during Q3 of 2015. While this isn’t a huge decline, it marks the second consecutive quarter that gold production was down versus the previous year. The overall trend of plateauing output remains in place and has increased the odds that we are approaching, or have already reached, peak gold. The chart of annual mine production is shown below.

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Commodities

Wednesday, November 02, 2016

Can Oil Markets Survive An OPEC Implosion? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

A technical meeting that was supposed to iron out some wrinkles for a deal to cut oil production ended in acrimony over the weekend, and OPEC's effort at coordination could be at yet another impasse.

Following the Algiers agreement at the end of September, a tentative deal that called for a collective reduction in oil output in the range of 200,000 to 700,000 barrels per day, OPEC scheduled a meeting on October 28-29 in Vienna to put some meat on the bones of the pact so that it could be officially sealed at the end of November.

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Commodities

Friday, October 28, 2016

What's Next for Crude Oil; Higher Prices or Crash / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Sol_Palha

"If the doors of perception were cleansed everything would appear to man as it is, infinite. For man has closed himself up, till he sees all things thru chinks of his cavern." ~ William Blake

2016 started with all the Drs of Gloom stating that oil was heading lower and many even predicted that it would trade down to $10.00. It was kind of interesting to watch this circus as there is a saying the cure for low prices is usually low prices. It would have made sense to take a firm stance against oil when it was trading above $100, but not when it was trading in the $30.00 ranges. These same experts were busy proclaiming higher prices when oil was trading north of $100.00. Only when oil was close to putting in a bottom, did they muster the courage to issue even lower prices; they would have been well served by simply keeping quiet. Experts were all trying to outdo each other; each one is releasing lower prices and a gloomier scenario. Here are some examples of the stories being put out at the time:

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Commodities

Tuesday, October 25, 2016

Cycle of Low Crude Prices Nearing an End, Says Saudi Oil Minister / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: The_Energy_Report

Saudi Arabia's Oil Minister Khalid al-Falih declared the cycle of low crude prices is nearing an end as the oil market strengthens in recent weeks.

"Market fundamentals, in terms of supply and demand, have begun to improve," Falih stated on Sunday at a press conference with Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak, adding: "We are optimistic that oil prices will continue to improve in the future."

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Commodities

Tuesday, October 25, 2016

Where Will Crude Oil Price Head Next? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: P_Radomski_CFA

Trading position (short-term; our opinion): Short positions (with a stop-loss order at $53.22 and initial price target at $46) are justified from the risk/reward perspective.

On Friday, crude oil gained 0.43% after Russia renewed its commitment to joining a producers' output freeze. Thanks to this news, light crude bounced off session’s lows and closed the week slightly below $51. But did this move change anything in the overall picture of the commodity?

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Commodities

Wednesday, October 12, 2016

Gold and Crude Oil - General Stock Market Links / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadia_Simmons

Without a doubt the most important event of the recent month (or even the recent years) was unexpected OPEC’s decision to limit its production to a range of 32.5-33.0 million barrels per day. The agreement reached in Algiers (which is expected to be implemented this year) improved oil investors’ sentiment and pushed the price of crude oil above the barrier of $50. But is it enough to break above the Jun peak? Is it possible that the relationships between crude oil, gold and the general stock market give us more clues about future crude oil’s moves?

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Commodities

Tuesday, October 11, 2016

For How Long Can OPEC Talk Up Oil Prices? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

Not a day passes without OPEC making oil and gas headlines, and today is surely no exception. Seemingly in lockstep with OPEC, the market is once again pacified on the promise that changes to the global oil supply glut are a' comin'.

Yesterday, the Wall Street Journal quoted anonymous sources close to the matter who had it on good authority that the Saudi's were willing to cut "up to" 400,000 barrels per day (and that they had planned to do so all along, with or without an OPEC agreement). We can assume this figure is off August or September levels, which are near-record highs for the oil-rich country.

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Commodities

Saturday, October 08, 2016

Crude's Post-OPEC Rally "Bears Watching" But "Natural Gas is More Interesting Market at this Juncture" / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: EWI

New insights from Chief Energy Analyst Steve Craig

Elliott Wave International's Steve Craig offers you his latest insight on price trends in crude oil and natural gas.

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Commodities

Thursday, October 06, 2016

Crude Oil Price Double Top or Further Rally? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadia_Simmons

Trading position (short-term; our opinion): No positions are justified from the risk/reward perspective. In other words, we think that taking profits off the table and closing the previous long positions is a good idea.

On Tuesday, crude oil gave some of earlier gains after news that Iran and Libya have continued to increase production. In these circumstances, light crude slipped to the previously-broken resistance zone, but then closed the day above it. Is this a verification of the breakout?

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Commodities

Wednesday, September 28, 2016

Where Will Oil Prices Go After Algiers? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

Saudi Arabia and Iran may yet come to terms on some sort of production arrangement, but the outcome of the negotiations in Algeria this week may not do much to rescue oil prices. Following the media spectacle, the oil markets may have to shift their attention back to the supply and demand fundamentals, which are not reassuring.

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Commodities

Wednesday, September 28, 2016

Crude Oil Bull Market Correction / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Ed_Carlson

Crude gained $1.45/bbl. last week closing at 44.48 even after a $1.84 loss on Friday. Since the August high, crude looks like a descending triangle (bearish). The upper trendline passes through 46.75 this week. Support is at 43.25. A break of support opens the door for a decline to 38.25. The weekly Coppock Curve did confirm the June high so look for higher highs in the future. However, new lows are expected once wave C has completed.

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Commodities

Thursday, September 15, 2016

Crude Oil Prices: Investors Getting Comfortable with New Levels? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nicholas_Kitonyi

When the price of oil breached above the $50 level, everyone thought alas, we could be hitting $70 before the end of the year. It was a steady rally that appeared to have turned the tide completely. However, things did not turn out as earlier predicted. Within no time, oil prices dropped again below $50 and have since failed to reach those levels. If anything, there are fresh fears that the price of crude oil could drop below $40 if the production levels remain unchecked.

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Commodities

Thursday, September 15, 2016

Crude Oil Price Trend Forecast 2016 September Update / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadeem_Walayat

At the start of this year the prevailing mood in the oil market was not just one of doom and gloom but of catastrophe as the oil price sunk below $30, skidding by the middle of February to virtually touch $25, a period during which many prominent analysts and investment banks such as Goldman Sachs all of whom were bearish on the prospects for oil price this year even suggesting that the oil price could sink to as low as $10 (Standard Chartered) which meant that the oil producers, the frackers and even a string of nations such as Russia, Nigeria and Venezuela were on the fast track towards going bust as their oil profits that financed state spending budget deficits evaporated.

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Commodities

Wednesday, September 14, 2016

Crude Oil Price Trend Forecast 2016 Update / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadeem_Walayat

At the start of the year the prevailing mood in the oil market was not just one of doom and gloom but of catastrophe as the oil price sunk below $30, skidding by the middle of February to virtually touch $25, a period during which many prominent analysts and investment banks such as Goldman Sachs all of whom were bearish on the prospects for oil price this year even suggesting that the oil price could sink to as low as $10 (Standard Chartered) which meant that the oil producers, the frackers and even a string of nations such as Russia, Nigeria and Venezuela were on the fast track towards going bust in as their oil profits that financed state spending budget deficits evaporated.

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Commodities

Tuesday, September 13, 2016

Gold and United States Imported Oil / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: DeviantInvestor

The US has imported crude oil for many decades. The following data (1970 – 2015) comes from the Energy Information Administration of the US government. This data shows reported barrels of crude oil imported into the US.

(Note: This is not a comprehensive analysis of imported energy, nor does it compensate for exports of crude oil, imports or exports of coal, natural gas or other energy sources.)

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Commodities

Thursday, September 08, 2016

The Next Sector To Recover From The Oil Price Crash / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

Oilfield services, shipbuilders and other industries that rose with the pre-2014 oil price boom have had it hard. Since barrel rates fell, their previous patrons have become uninterested in doling out major purchase orders, leaving oil and gas equipment manufacturers without revenues.

A recent report by Arkansas Online says the energy industry’s support sector could feel the effects of low oil prices for up to two years after the current bear market recovers.

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Commodities

Thursday, August 25, 2016

OPEC’s Output Freeze: What Has Changed Since Doha? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

It’s possible that OPEC is crying wolf with hints of an output freeze next month in Algiers; but it’s also possible that they are ramping up production to take the sting out of a freeze. This is a delicate balancing act that the Saudis need to play very carefully.

The official chatter is that the OPEC meeting in Algeria from September 26 to 28 could conclude with an agreement to freeze production by the member nations, with even Russia joining forces in a freeze that may prevent further oil price erosion. But everyone’s a bit gun-shy after the false hopes of the last round in Doha—even if a freeze at levels that existed then wouldn’t have meant much either—and it’s hard to blame them. The question is, how many times can the Saudis cry wolf without forever losing the ability to leverage this chatter to affect a rise in oil prices?

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Commodities

Wednesday, August 24, 2016

Crude and the Commodity Cycle / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Tony_Caldaro

Over the years we have written many times about the 34-year commodity cycle. Generally commodities rise as a group in a 13-year bull market, which is followed by a 21-year bear market. Each specific commodity has its own particular cycle which generally fits within the broader 34-year commodity cycle.

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Commodities

Monday, August 22, 2016

WTI Crude Oil Pattern Still on Target for Higher Prices / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Ken_Ticehurst

Since our last article WTI has behaved perfectly, clearing all our daily hurdles. Our longer term patterns show the strong possibility of a rise to $60+ during the second half of this year before a further decline in to 2017.

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Commodities

Friday, August 19, 2016

Saudis Ramping Up Oil Output To Gain Leverage In OPEC Talks / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

Saudi Arabia suggests it may be increasing its August crude output to a new all-time high as it could give it more leverage to influence the September informal talks on a possible production freeze, Reuters reported on Wednesday, citing industry sources.

Saudi Arabia – OPEC’s biggest producer — pumped a record 10.67 million barrels per day in July, up by some 120,000 bpd compared to June. The Saudis are usually ramping up production in the summer with the higher demand for crude, but what was unusual was that production hit a record high, above last summer’s peak.

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Commodities

Friday, August 19, 2016

Higher Crude Oil’s Prices and USD/CAD / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadia_Simmons

Earlier today, the USD Index extended losses against its Canadian counterpart after the disappointing minutes of the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting (they vanished expectations for a September rate hike) continued to weigh on investors’ sentiment. Additionally, rising prices of crude oil supported Canadian currency, which pushed USD/CAD under 1.2800. What’s next for the exchange rate?

In our opinion, the following forex trading positions are justified – summary:

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Commodities

Friday, August 12, 2016

Is the Crude Oil Price Rally Over? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadia_Simmons

Trading position (short-term; our opinion): Long positions (stop loss at $37.23; initial upside target at $46.90) are justified from the risk/reward perspective.

Crude oil declined on Wednesday only to shoot up with vengeance yesterday, exceeding the previous August highs. Still, crude oil declined a bit before the session was over, so many investors are wondering if the rally is already over – is this the case?

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Commodities

Friday, August 12, 2016

Crude Oil Price Bottom likely to Propel Dow Industrials Higher / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Sol_Palha

The minute you settle for less than you deserve, you get even less than you settled for. Maureen Dowd

The chart below clearly illustrates that a relationship exists between crude oil and the Dow.  For most of the 1st half of 2015, oil traded sideways, and the Dow followed suit.  Then, around July of 2015, oil broke down, and the Dow followed in its footsteps.  We see a similar pattern from Nov-Dec 2015; oil headed lower, and the Dow once again followed in its footsteps; so much for the argument that states lower oil prices are conducive for the markets. 

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Commodities

Tuesday, August 09, 2016

Will this Crude Oil Price Rally hold? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Bob_Loukas

Crude has finally reversed higher to recover some of its recent losses, and is now showing clear evidence of a new Daily Cycle (DC) and Crude Oil Rally.  There are early signs of a new Investor Cycle (IC) as well.

Midweek, Crude bottomed on day 44 before reversing sharply higher and punching through the declining trend-line.  And when it closed above the 10 day moving average, Crude confirmed that it is in the early stages of a new Daily Cycle.  From this point forward, Crude’s performance will depend on its Investor Cycle and the bear market as a whole.

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Commodities

Thursday, August 04, 2016

Today's Downturn Sets Markets Up For A Dramatic Oil Price Spike / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

Another oil price downturn threatens to deepen the plunging levels of investment in upstream oil and gas production, which could create a more acute price spike in the years ahead.

Oil and gas companies have gutted their capex budgets, necessary moves as drillers went deep into the red following the crash in oil prices. But the sharp cutback in investment means that huge volumes of oil that would have otherwise come online in five or ten years now will remain on the sidelines.

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Commodities

Monday, August 01, 2016

WTI Forecast Pattern Suggests Higher Crude Oil Prices Coming / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Ken_Ticehurst

WTI having recently topped out at $50 per barrel, is now possibly ending a decent consolidation having moved off its start of the year lows. Our longer term patterns show the strong possibility of a rise to $60+ during the second half of this year before a further decline in to 2017.

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Commodities

Friday, July 29, 2016

Crude Oil CFDs - What to Expect in the Coming Months / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Boris_Dzhingarov

The oil market is globalised, and it works for 24 hours a day. It is also very sensitive, so prices are constantly fluctuating. This is why day traders can benefit from this market, particularly if they trade on oil prices with the help of CFDs (contracts for difference).

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Commodities

Thursday, July 21, 2016

Did Oil Kill The Dinosaurs? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

What killed the dinosaurs? It's a question as old as – well the dinosaurs themselves, and one that everyone from school children to scientists have been asking for decades. Movies like Jurassic Park and the Land Before Time only heighten that sense of wonder and raise the stakes behind that question. Now according to a new scientific study, it seems that black gold may have been the source of the dinos' demise.

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Commodities

Tuesday, July 19, 2016

The Peak Oil Paradox Revisited / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Raul_I_Meijer

It’s been a while since we posted an article by our friend Euan Mearns, who was active at The Oil Drum at the same time Nicole and I were. Is it really 11 years ago that started, and almost 9 since we left? You know the drill: we ‘departed’ because they didn’t want us to cover finance, which we said was the more immediate crisis, yada yada. Euan stayed on for longer, and the once unequalled Oil Drum is no more.

On one of our long tours, which were based around Nicole’s brilliant public speaking engagements, we went to see Euan in Scotland, he teaches at Aberdeen University. I think it was 2011?! An honor. Anyway, always a friend.

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Commodities

Thursday, July 14, 2016

Successfully Forecasting Crude Oil Price from 2014 to Today / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: EWI

The Wave Principle helped investors prepare for today's energy market action

March 31, 2014 was no time to issue a bearish forecast for crude oil -- or so it appeared.

But that's exactly the scenario Elliott Wave International's founder Bob Prechter showed his subscribers in his monthly Elliott Wave Theorist.

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Commodities

Wednesday, July 13, 2016

Oil Industry Faces Huge Worker Shortage / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

The rig count has rebounded from the lows seen in late May, a small indication that oil companies in the U.S. could begin drilling anew. Shale drilling is a short-cycle prospect, requiring only a few weeks to drill and bring a well online. Because of this, the collective U.S. shale industry has been likened to the new "swing producer": low oil prices force quick cutbacks but higher prices trigger new supplies. In essence, shale could balance the market in the way OPEC used to.

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Commodities

Tuesday, July 12, 2016

Crude Oil - Precious Metals Link / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadia_Simmons

In the recent few weeks oil bulls and bears fought battles between the barrier of $50 (the key resistance) and the green support zone based on the Apr and early May highs. After several unsuccessful attempts to move higher oil bears took control and crude oil closed Thursday's and Friday's sessions under its first important support zone. How did this drop affect the oil-to gold and oil-to-silver ratios? Let's jump right into charts (chart courtesy of http://stockcharts.com) and find out.

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Commodities

Wednesday, June 22, 2016

Increase In U.S. Rig Count Will Not Cap Oil Prices / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

The impact of rising oil prices on North American light tight oil (LTO) production is said to be a “Catch 22”, the title of Joseph Heller’s popular 1961 novel set in WWII. The premise was you could get out of the army if you were crazy but you weren’t crazy to try to get out of the army. So this avenue to escape the war didn’t work for the book’s main character John Yossarian.

Too many analysts continue to believe drilling and service has the same problem with rising oil prices. With WTI back above $50 a barrel – at least briefly last week – North American LTO developers are putting rigs, service equipment and personnel back to work. The so-called “fraclog” or “DUC” inventory (wells drilled but uncompleted) is being reduced. While this is good it is also thought by some to be temporary.

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Commodities

Thursday, June 16, 2016

Crude Oil Price - Oil Bears vs. Support Zone / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadia_Simmons

Trading position (short-term; our opinion): No positions are justified from the risk/reward perspective.

On Tuesday, crude oil lost 1.36% as rising uncertainty around Brexit weighed on investors' sentiment (leaving the European Union by Britain could trigger a recession and slow demand for crude in Europe). In these circumstances, light crude declined under the short-term support line and approached the Jun lows. Will we see lower prices in the coming days?

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Commodities

Tuesday, June 07, 2016

Crude Oil Price Is Due for a Correction / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: The_Energy_Report

Technical analyst Jack Chan demonstrates the divergence between oil equity prices and the underlying commodity.

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Commodities

Saturday, June 04, 2016

Why Crude Oil $50 Won't Last, Chances of a Breakdown Are High / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: The_Energy_Report

Technical analyst and newsletter writer Clive Maund lists the reasons he believes oil prices, which recently peaked above $50/barrel, are headed for a fall.

It still looks like oil is topping out here at about the $50 level after its substantial recovery uptrend from its February low. While we cannot be sure until it breaks down from its uptrend, the chances of its doing so soon look high for various reasons.

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Commodities

Thursday, June 02, 2016

On the Price of Oil / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Steve_H_Hanke

Since its high of almost $108/bbl in June of 2014, we have witnessed a stunning collapse in the price of oil. Indeed, in February 2016, a barrel of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) was trading at $26/bbl, a 76 percent plunge from the June 2014 highs. It has since clawed its way back to $49/bbl (May 24th).
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Commodities

Tuesday, May 31, 2016

3 Years Of Painful Cuts Sets Oil Markets Up For Serious Supply Crunch / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

Total global oil production could decline for the next several years in a row as scarce new sources of supply come online.

According to data from Rystad Energy, overall global oil output will fall this year as natural depletion overwhelms all new sources of supply. But the deficit will only widen in the years ahead due to the dramatic scaling back in spending on new exploration and development.

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Commodities

Monday, May 30, 2016

Smart Oil Traders Who Realize This Pattern Could Make a Killing / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Graham_Summers

The markets are tracking the same pattern that played out in 2015.

Most market action (more than 80%) today is driven by computer algorithms. These programs look for an asset class that is moving, and then buy based on the momentum.

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Commodities

Friday, May 27, 2016

Oil Climbs over $50: Can Investors Bank on a Recovery? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: The_Energy_Report

The price of a barrel of oil has almost doubled from its low of $28 at the start of the year, prompting speculation that a recovery is underway, which may result in the revival of companies in the exploration, production and services sectors that have foundered since prices collapsed in 2015.

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Commodities

Thursday, May 26, 2016

The Black Swan Spotter...Which Saw the Oil-Crash coming; now says the “Invisible Hand” will push Brent to $85 by Christmas / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Andrew_Butter

This is a long article...in summary:

 

The Short Story:

  • $85 by Christmas 2016 sounds as far-fetched as the notion that when Oil was $100-Plus, it would crash!
  • The Big Idea then, was that was a classic price bubble – and bubbles always bust
  • That was based on a boring valuation for “Other-Than-Market-Value” (OTMV) done in line with very boring International Valuation Standards; nothing radical, no Black Magic, no Black Swans  http://www.romacor.ro/legislatie/08-ivs2.pdf
  • The “alleged” price-bubble, led “allegedly” to over-investment which led to over-supply
  • That was probably thanks to central banks printing money to stimulate what Ludwig Von Mises called “mal-investment”, which is why you have central banks and “God’s Workers” ordained by Goldman Sachs
  • The over-supply eventually caused a bust, predictably
  • And then “over-investors” (and/or their banks), lost their shirts. That’s normal, it happens all the time; the only question is who pays; the latest idea of the Fed  is the grand-children do.
  • The model says bubble/bust is zero-sum and so the bust is over; because the supervisor of God’s Workers says so
  • OTMV today appears to be about $85, so that’s where the price is headed now
  • Unless shale oil comes back in a big way – that’s the only caveat.
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Commodities

Wednesday, May 04, 2016

Why China Is Really Dictating the Oil Supply Glut / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

Ship tracking data from Bloomberg shows that 83 supertankers carrying around 166 million barrels of oil are headed to China, which has stockpiled an impressive 787,000 barrels a day in the first quarter of 2016—the highest stockpiling rate since 2014.

While the world was speculating about oil prices plunging to $20 and $10 per barrel, China was busy stockpiling its reserves.

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Commodities

Tuesday, May 03, 2016

Low Prices for Oil Cure Low Prices for Oil / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: The_Energy_Report

Veteran investor Bob Moriarty discusses one company that is poised to benefit from the volatililty in the oil markets.

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Commodities

Wednesday, April 27, 2016

Crude Oil: See How Elliott Waves Prepare You for Trend Changes - Video / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: EWI

"Trend is your friend"? Yes -- but how do you know when a trend may end? Watch.

Back in February, when crude oil prices fell to $26 a barrel, you may remember a chorus of mainstream opinions suggesting that it had further to fall. Yet, oil prices shot up 60% since then.

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Commodities

Tuesday, April 26, 2016

Crude Oil Price Double Top or Further Rally? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadia_Simmons

Trading position (short-term; our opinion): Short positions (with a stop-loss order at $48.56 and initial downside target at $35.24) are justified from the risk/reward perspective.

Although crude oil increased after the market's open, approaching Thursday's high, the commodity gave up some gains in the following hours weakened by the strengthening U.S. dollar. Thanks to these circumstances, light crude closed another day under the resistance line. Will it be strong enough to stop oil bulls in the coming days?

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News_Letter

Saturday, April 23, 2016

Crude Oil Price Crash Triggering Global Instability, Trend Forecast 2016 / News_Letter / Crude Oil

By: NewsLetter

The Market Oracle Newsletter
Jan 17th, 2016 Issue # 2 Vol. 10
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Commodities

Thursday, April 21, 2016

Crude Oil Complacency Climbs / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: AnyOption

US production at 18-month lows was partly behind the recent surge in crude oil prices following yet another report of building onshore inventories.  Despite the veritable flood of crude oil prices hitting global markets, crude prices continue to rise amid rising speculation that key global producers will elect to increase production even further.  Since the freeze deal fell through, Russia has underlined its doubts that any such agreement will be possible, potentially paving the way for OPEC members to further stray from a single policy, opting instead to put national interests ahead of economic rationality.  While prices have jumped to the highest levels since November on new forecasts that anticipate a rebalancing of the market my 2017, complacency amongst traders continues to grow as problematic fundamental conditions remain intact.

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Commodities

Tuesday, April 19, 2016

Gold and Crude Oil - What Can We Infer from This Relationship? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadia_Simmons

Although the world's largest oil-producing countries met this weekend in Doha, they failed to reach a deal to freeze output at Jan levels as Saudi deputy crown prince Mohammed bin Salman sustained earlier statement that Saudi Arabia would freeze the level of its oil production only if all other major producers (including Iran) did the same. Although Iran supported the freeze, the country didn't agree to cut production until it raises its output to around 4 million barrels per day (to the pre-sanctions levels). What does it mean for crude oil? In our opinion, such developments suggest a renewed battle for crude market share, which would likely translate into lower values of the commodity in the coming days or even weeks. Will our interesting ratios confirm this scenario? Let's jump right into charts (chart courtesy of http://stockcharts.com) and find out.

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Commodities

Friday, April 08, 2016

Crude Oil Price $85 Forecast By Christmas / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

After a 50 percent rally in oil prices between February and March, crude has retreated a bit as of late. The upcoming OPEC-Russia meeting in Doha looms over the markets, but few expect the outcome to have any material impact on supply and demand. Global supply still exceeds demand, but there are solid signs that the overhang is finally starting to ease. Storage levels are high, but are expected to come down.

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Commodities

Wednesday, April 06, 2016

The Outlook for Crude Oil Prices / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Donald_W_Dony

Light crude oil prices (WTI) has remained in a downward trend since mid-2014. With its fresh new low in Q1, 2016 and price resistance now building at $42.40, the outlook remains negative.

The U.S. dollar's impact continues to play out against the commodity.
With the improving economic status of the U.S. coupled with a Fed agenda of gradual interest rate increases this year, the currency remains with a steady tailwind (Chart 1).

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Commodities

Wednesday, April 06, 2016

Crude Oil Price One-Day Rally or Something More / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadia_Simmons

Trading position (short-term; our opinion): No positions are justified from the risk/reward perspective.

On Tuesday, crude oil moved lower after the market’s open weakened by an unexpected decline in monthly U.S. gasoline demand. Despite this drop, the commodity reversed and rebounded in the following hours. As a result, light crude gained 3.10% and invalidated earlier breakdown. What does it mean for oil bulls?

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Commodities

Thursday, March 31, 2016

Crude Oil Price Meets Support / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadia_Simmons

Trading position (short-term; our opinion): No positions are justified from the risk/reward perspective.
On Tuesday, crude oil lost 2.06% ahead of the American Petroleum Institute's weekly inventory report. Thanks to this drop, light crude closed another day under $39, but reached important support zone. Will it encourage oil bulls to act in the coming days?

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Commodities

Tuesday, March 29, 2016

U.S. Lifted The Crude Oil Export Ban, And Exports Went…Down / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

Just over three months after the authorities lifted the four-decade ban on crude oil exports, the U.S. has actually exported less this year than it did over the same period the year before, when the ban was still in place.

According to Clipper Data market intelligence cited by the Financial Times, we've seen a 5 percent decline in U.S. crude oil export volumes since the beginning of this year. The data suggests that on average we are exporting (waterborne) 325,000 barrels per day now, compared to 342,000 barrels per day during the first months of 2015.

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Commodities

Thursday, March 24, 2016

The Current Oil Price Rally Is Reaching Its Limits / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

Oil prices have climbed by about 50 percent from their February lows, topping $40 per barrel. But the rally could be reaching its limits, at least temporarily, as persistent oversupply and the prospect of new shale production caps any potential price increase.

U.S. oil production has steadily lost ground over the past two quarters, with production falling more than a half million barrels per day since hitting a peak at nearly 9.7 million barrels per day (mb/d) in April 2015. American oil companies have gutted their budgets and have put off drilling plans, with many projecting absolute declines in 2016.

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Commodities

Tuesday, March 22, 2016

Is This The End for Crude Oil? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Sol_Palha

"The end is never as satisfying as the journey. To have achieved everything but to have done so without integrity and excitement is to have achieved nothing." ~ Anonymous

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Commodities

Monday, March 21, 2016

Crude Oil Price – North or South? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadia_Simmons

Trading position (short-term; our opinion): No positions are justified from the risk/reward perspective.

On Friday, crude oil lost 1.30% after unexpected increase in U.S. oil rig counts. As a result, light crude slipped under $42 and closed the day under the previously-broken 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. What’s next for the commodity?

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Commodities

Monday, March 21, 2016

Crude Oil Price Action & Forecast / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Recently, Light Crude has seen a dramatic 35%+ increase in value.  As the current price continue to flirt with $40 per barrel, the likelihood of a further price rise is on everyone’s mind.  With recent lows near $26 per barrel, what is the possibility that oil will form a base above $30 and attempt a rally?

Historically, the 2009 low price for oil was $33.20.  This level should be viewed as a key level of support for current price action.  The recent price rotation below this level is a sign that oil prices are under extreme pressure in the current economic environment with a supply glut and slower than expected demand.

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Commodities

Thursday, March 17, 2016

Oil Price Won't Stage A Serious Rebound Until This Happens / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

Oil prices have shown signs of life over the past few weeks, as production declines in the U.S. raise expectations that the market is starting to adjust. As a result, Brent crude recently surpassed $40 per barrel for the first time in months.

A growling list of companies are capitulating, announcing production cuts for 2016. Continental Resources, for example, could see output fall by 10 percent. A range of other companies have made similar announcements in recent weeks. The energy world has been speculating about declines from U.S. shale, and the declines are finally starting to show up in the data.

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Commodities

Wednesday, March 16, 2016

Crude Oil Price Due for a Pit Stop / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Ed_Carlson

Crude gained $2.58 last week to close at 38.50 - on the declining trendline and the 50% retracement of the October decline. My bandwidth indicator has turned down indicating that the rally is long-in-the-tooth. On Friday, crude tested 39.00 which makes the February rally equal to 150% of the January rally; a natural stopping point.

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Commodities

Tuesday, March 15, 2016

Crude Oil Price Technical Juncture / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadia_Simmons

Trading position (short-term; our opinion): No positions are justified from the risk/reward perspective.

On Friday, crude oil gained 1.24% as rig count declined to the lowest level ever. Thanks to this news, light crude hit a fresh March high, but will we see further rally in the coming week?

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Commodities

Saturday, March 12, 2016

$67 Crude Oil Price Has All The Majors Converging Here / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

Argentina offers one of the few places on earth where oil companies are not suffering from the full force of the collapse in prices.
Argentina regulates oil prices, a policy originally intended to insulate the public from the whims of the market, protecting people from triple-digit crude prices. But with the crash in prices since mid-2014, the effect of the regulation has reversed: motorists are now effectively subsidizing the oil industry.

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Commodities

Tuesday, March 01, 2016

Why Oil Booms And Busts Happen / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

What if I told you that there was a period in history where oil demand declined by 5 million barrels per day and non-OPEC supply increased by 5 million barrels per day, yet oil price rallied more than 50 percent? Would you believe me? If your answer is yes, then you guessed right. This was the period from 1979 to 1985; it was a period during which global oil demand declined from over 61 million barrels to 56 million barrels and non-OPEC supply increased from 32 million barrels to 37 million barrels. Yet prices rallied from $17 a barrel in 1979 to $26 a barrel in 1985, while reaching as high as $35 in 1981.

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Commodities

Wednesday, February 24, 2016

Who Will Be Left Standing At The End Of The Oil War / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

This is a financial cold war—nothing more, nothing less.

While there are billions of reasons to cut output, and every major producing country is reeling from the loss of revenues, some are weathering the current bust better than others, but the devil is in the details, and the details contain tons of variables.

Production cost and breakeven figures that analysts enjoy bandying can trap you in bubble of black-and-white mathematics that is a few brush-strokes shy of a full picture.

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Commodities

Monday, February 22, 2016

Crude Oil Price Bottom, Forecast to Double Before End of 2016 / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The crude oil price last close of $32 stands $6 higher than its recent multi-year bear market low of $26. Whilst little has changed fundamentally so far in terms of supply i.e. OPEC and others are still pumping flat out and Iran continues to ramp up production, nevertheless demand destruction of many smaller oil producers operating at below break even prices is finally starting to be discounted by the market.

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Commodities

Saturday, February 20, 2016

OPEC Lost the Shale-Oil-War: Deflation Looms / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Andrew_Butter

In the unspoken plan to shut down what the oil-aristocrats called, “high cost producers”, let’s call that the Shale-Oil-War, the war-word was never mentioned.

But it was war and there were casualties, Big-Time. There will be more bankruptcies in the Exploration and Production (E&P) sector and painful write-downs by the banks who supported it; many once oil-rich countries have been pushed into recession and the ripples are traveling down the value chain...there are long lines of cold-stacked brand-new drilling barges built on credit, closed steel plants and the mines that fed them, all the way through to the FAO Food-price Index that tracks oil prices. No wonder China is in some sort of recession, they were the final assembly point for a good part of the stuff you need to get oil out of the ground.

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Commodities

Friday, February 12, 2016

T. Boone Pickens On Obama Oil Tax: "Dumbest Idea Ever" / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

The Obama administration's proposed $10.25 per barrel oil tax adds up to approximately $32 billion a year, and critics are coming out of the woodwork in defense of both the oil industry and end users who would foot the bill for transportation system reforms-but it may be a moot point since the effort will simply be killed off by Congress.

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Commodities

Tuesday, February 09, 2016

Crude Oil Price Continues to Drill Downward / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Ed_Carlson

Last week's forecast for a high in the Dow on February 1st was a perfect hit. As of last Friday, the Dow has fallen 438 points since last Monday's high.

Crude spent last week trying to breakout from the 34-dma but, in the end, fell $2.73/bbl. for the week closing at 30.89 and printed an engulfing bearish candlestick on the weekly chart.

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Commodities

Monday, February 08, 2016

Crude Oil's True Message / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Michael_Pento

The pervasive narrative on Wall Street is that the collapse in oil prices will, any second now, restore consumers to their profligate spending ways. In fact, financial pundits have been calling for plunging energy prices to imminently rescue the economy for the past 18 months. Most importantly, these same gurus, who love to espouse the benefits of a collapse in oil prices, never connect the dots to what this collapse says about the state of global growth. Instead they argue it is solely a function of a supply glut that is the result of increased production.

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Commodities

Sunday, February 07, 2016

Why Crude Oil Prices Could Continue FALLING From Here / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Jesse

By Brett Eversole

Oil prices HAVE to go higher... Or do they?
 
Crude oil is already down 17% this year. It broke into the $20 range last month. And the total fall since July 2014 is 72%.
 
You (and nearly everyone else) expect much higher oil prices after a crash like we've seen. But that's the problem...
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Commodities

Friday, February 05, 2016

Crude Oil Price Bottoms and Blues / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: DeviantInvestor

Crude oil prices have dropped from about $106 in June of 2014 to briefly under $30 in January of 2016 – down about 74% peak to trough.  This appears to be an on-going disaster for oil companies, the banks who loaned money to frackers, oil exporting countries, global stock markets and others.

Conventional wisdom suggests that crude oil prices will stay low for a long time because of low demand (global recession), huge supply (Iran, fracking, etc.), decline in commodity prices globally, and at least ten more reasons.

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Commodities

Thursday, February 04, 2016

Crude Oil Price Forecast 2016 As Good As It Gets / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Joseph_Russo

In observing the enormous triple digit percentage gains achieved amid Crude Oil's northward thrusts versus its debilitating double digit losses during its major spills, it becomes rather clear why market participants prefer buying low in a newly forming bull market vs. selling short at the onset of a bear market.

On a relative basis, in the not too distant future, a cyclical bottom will form and the long-term trend in Crude will reverse to the upside - providing bullish speculators with yet another rare opportunity at the chance of humongous triple digit upside returns.

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Commodities

Wednesday, January 27, 2016

Will Crude Oil Prices Rebound in 2016? 60 Reasons Why Investors Should Hang On / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

Inventories will continue to rise, but the momentum is slowing.
The following are some observations as to how we got here and how we're gonna get out.

9 reasons why oil has taken so long to bottom:

1. OPEC increased production in 2015 to multiyear highs, principally in Saudi Arabia and Iraq where production between the two added 1.5 million barrels per day (mb/d) to inventories after the no cut stance was adopted.

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Commodities

Saturday, January 23, 2016

Will Crude Oil Prices Rebound in 2016? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

Oilprice.com recently spoke with Carl Larry, Director of Oil and Gas at Frost & Sullivan, a consultancy that conducts research on oil and gas markets, to get his thoughts on the state of oil in 2016.

Oilprice.com: I saw that you were on Bloomberg in December, and you said that you thought oil would go to the low $30s per barrel, which was a good call at the time, before OPEC would sort of relent. Do you see any chance that OPEC can actually coordinate any production cuts?

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Commodities

Friday, January 22, 2016

Crude Oil Price Bear Market Bottom? As WTIC Pops Back Over $30 / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The crude oil price hit a new low on Wednesday of just under $27, prompting many doom merchants to emerge to proclaim / reaffirm that $20 and even $10 is on the horizon. However, on following day the oil price rallied strongly to just shy of $30 to end Thursday at $29.85 and this morning has popped just above $30 to currently stand at $30.20. With the key question being asked is are we witnessing the early stages of an oil price bottom (WTIC) or is this just a few days of calm before the next oil price crash storm?

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Commodities

Thursday, January 21, 2016

Crude Oil Foretells Additional Ruble Losses / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: AnyOption

Warnings from the IEA and new lows in key global benchmarks continues to weigh on the outlook for energy prices, hurting the foremost global oil and gas exporters.  Russia has experienced a reversed rags to riches tale over the last two years as the impact of sanctions and the slump in the energy patch have kept the Ruble under extreme pressure.  The underperformance continues to echo the losses in oil prices as the supply and demand imbalance remains largely unchanged, only set to grow in coming months with the expansion of Iranian crude oil exports.  With market dynamics expected to be weak and existing projections forecasting no rebound in prices, the weakness in the Ruble is only likely to accelerate over time, matching losses in oil prices.

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Commodities

Wednesday, January 20, 2016

Will the Crude Oil Price Crash become even Worse in 2016? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Sol_Palha

A patient mind is the best remedy for trouble- Plaut

2015 was not a good year for speculators trying to time the oil markets.  Oil kept cutting through each support level like a hot knife cutting through butter. It would give the appearance that it was ready to mount a rally, but that rally would fade, and oil prices would drift lower.  We penned an article in Nov of last year, where we stated that oil would have to close above $50 on a weekly basis for it to see higher prices.  However, it failed to do that and drifted lower.  When it closed below $32 on a weekly basis, it neutralized any tiny bullish signals it was issuing in 2015.  Is oil close to putting in a bottom or will it once again let everyone down and plunge into a series of new lows.  There is a saying that the cure for low prices is lower prices and vice versa; having said, that we expect one final wave of selling before oil bottoms out and starts to trend slowly upwards.  We do not expect any violent upward reversals unless the situation between Iran and Saudi heats up to the point that a new war breaks out.

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Commodities

Wednesday, January 20, 2016

Crude Oil Hit $32... But The Worst Is Yet To Come / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Harry_Dent

On August 5 last year I forecast that oil would hit $32 or a bit lower by January.

And it’s happened right on cue!

Along with iron ore and coal (down 70%-plus), oil has been one of the worst-performing commodities – down 80% from its 2008 top. And ultimately it’s headed lower, all the way to $10 or $20. I’ve been saying this since oil was $115, and look where we are now!

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Commodities

Tuesday, January 19, 2016

Oil price Slump Leads To Shale 2.0, The Great Crew Change, And COP21 / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Submissions

Alfidi Capital writes: The oil sector's bear attack shows no signs of abating. OPEC's Saudi-led push for huge overproduction is driving the US shale sector to the brink of collapse. The post-crash survivors can benefit from "Shale 2.0" technologies that keep their costs down. They will need every advantage they can get when the "Great Crew Change" makes finding human talent harder and the UN's COP21 protocols make hydrocarbon production less desirable.

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Commodities

Tuesday, January 19, 2016

Crude Oil Price Stabilises above $30 Following New U.S. Sanctions Imposed on Duped Iran / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The crude oil price reversed direction Monday to climb back above $30 (WTIC) as the market has started to discount the probability that the Iranians have been duped into given up nuclear weaponry, in a perpetual U.S. game of sanctions for ever for the purpose of Iran being systematically disarmed of it's military capacity much as Iraq was disarmed before a pretext for invasion was manufactured by the Intelligence Agencies all to appease the Saudi and Israeli fundamentalist states (Islamic and Jewish).

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Commodities

Monday, January 18, 2016

Crude Oil Price Trend Forecast 2016 - Video By Nadeem Walayat / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadeem_Walayat

After a savage bear market for the oil market for the whole of 2015, the crude oil price has got 2016 off with a bang by plunging to just below $30 before recovering at the last close to $30.68 (WTIC). One does not need to look far for the negative fundamentals that are driving the oil price into dust. Fundamentals such as the sharp slowdown in the Chinese economy, fundamentals such as the apparent oil war that Saudi Arabia is engaged in with the United States shale oil industry and now added to are fundamentals of lifting of sanctions against Iran that can literally immediately flood the oil market with 50 million barrels of crude oil in storage and looks set to up its output by 1m b/d this year.

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Commodities

Sunday, January 17, 2016

Crude Oil Price Crash Triggering Global Instability, Trend Forecast 2016 / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The crude oil price collapse of 2015 has continued into 2016 with the price of oil plunging to a 12 year low of just under $30 per barrel as a consequence of a perfect storm of falling demand, primarily due to the slowing Chinese economy and relentlessly rising output that is not just limited to the usual OPEC suspects but is as the natural consequences of the fracking boom that continued to ripple out from the US to across the world during 2015.

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Politics

Friday, January 15, 2016

Re-Covering Oil and War / Politics / Crude Oil

By: Raul_I_Meijer

The first thing that popped into our minds on Tuesday when WTI oil briefly broached $30 for its first $20 handle in many years, was that this should be triggering a Gawdawful amount of bets, $30 being such an obvious number. Which in turn would of necessity lead to a -brief- rise in prices.

Apparently even that is not so easy to see, since when prices did indeed go up after, some 3% at the ‘top’, ‘analysts’ fell over each other talking up ‘bottom’, ‘rebound’ and even ‘recovery’. We’re really addicted to that recovery idea, aren’t we? Well, sorry, but this is not about recovering, it’s about covering (wagers).

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Commodities

Friday, January 15, 2016

Oil Wars 2016 - US vs Russia vs Saudi Arabia vs Iran / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The oil price collapse is having a devastating impact on ALL of the worlds major oil producers as it's not just a case of what is the break-even price but the price necessary to finance government budgets that are now in deep deficits which has been triggering increasing global instability as the price has slid to $30. In fact the budgets of virtually every major oil producer requires an oil price north of $80 just to break-even. With several such as Russia requiring $100+. Furthermore the oil price slump of 2015 has played a large part in sparking economic mass migration out of African oil producers such as Nigeria whose government requires an oil price of $120 to balance it's budget.

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Commodities

Friday, January 15, 2016

War Between Saudi Arabia And Iran Could Send Oil Prices To $250 / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

The rift between Saudi Arabia and Iran has quickly ballooned into the worst conflict in decades between the two countries.

The back-and-forth escalation quickly turned the simmering tension into an overt struggle for power in the Middle East. First, the execution of a prominent Shiite cleric prompted protestors to set fire to the Saudi embassy in Tehran. Saudi Arabia cut off diplomatic relations and kicked out Iranian diplomatic personnel. Tehran banned Saudi goods from entering Iran. Worst of all, Iran blames Saudi Arabia for an airstrike that landed near its embassy in Yemen.

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Commodities

Thursday, January 14, 2016

Crude Oil Price Crash Catastrophe, Independant Scotland Literally Begging to Rejoin the UK / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The oil price collapse of 2015 has continued into 2016 with the price of oil plunging to a 12 year low of $29, less than 1/3rd of just over a year ago at the time of the Scottish Independence mania that surrounded the Independence Referendum on the backs of an oil price of over $100 which had the Scottish Nationalists fantasising of the oil price heading to $120 and beyond, as part of painting a propaganda picture of an Independent Scotland Utopia to be built on tens of billions of free money each year in the form of tax revenues from a perpetually expanding north sea oil industry. Not only were the nationalist convinced of the oil price soaring soaring into the stratosphere but would heavily round on anyone that suggested that oil prices could actually fall as being Unionist propaganda.

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Commodities

Tuesday, January 12, 2016

Peak Bull Crap - How Oil Futures Curve Have Little Predictive Value / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: EconMatters

The oil market is the hot market right now from a news generation standpoint. But there are a lot of people writing and even trading in the oil market that frankly don`t have any clue what they are talking about. I have read some real rubbish the last few months regarding the oil market, and with the recent fall in prices, the last few days have been characterized by peak bull crap. Maybe if anything else this is an indication of the bottoming process in oil. Sort of like all those do it yourself Gold Mining shows hitting the reality television scene pretty much nailing the near term top in the gold market.
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Commodities

Tuesday, January 12, 2016

Here is How You Fix the Oil Market / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: EconMatters

The Mining Industry Approach

I hate always being the smartest person in the room, because I end up doing my job and everyone else`s as well. But here is a giant freebie for all those stupid, clueless oil executives out there in North America. What you are currently doing - or not doing by being effectively a deer stuck in headlights - isn`t working. You cannot take a clue from the miserable strategy employed be the mining industry where they are waiting for each other to go out of business, meanwhile the entire industry as a group is sinking like the Titanic.
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Commodities

Monday, January 11, 2016

Crude Oil Price Closed Week under 2009 Low! / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadia_Simmons

Trading position (short-term; our opinion): Short positions (with a stop-loss order at $39.12) are justified from the risk/reward perspective.
On Friday, crude oil lost 1.14% as concerns over a global supply glut, the situation in China and the Middle East continued to weigh on investors sentiment. Thanks to these circumstances, light crude closed the week under the 2009 low. Does it mean that we’ll see a test of the barrier of $30 in the coming weeks?

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Commodities

Friday, January 08, 2016

That`s the Bottom in the Crude Oil Price, Clear Out Weak Hands in the Market / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: EconMatters

On Wednesday the oil market sold off to $33.77 on large product`s builds, China`s devaluation of its currency, and a substantial selloff in equities. Sure Oil can go a dollar below this low, but for all intents and purposes this is the bottom in the oil selloff that was predicted for the start of the year. This move down was as predictable a move as there is in financial markets, and we called this down move to start the year with a piece we issued in December.

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Commodities

Thursday, January 07, 2016

Crude Oil Price Breakdown! / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadia_Simmons

Trading position (short-term; our opinion): Short positions (with a stop-loss order at $39.12 and an initial downside target at $33.66) are justified from the risk/reward perspective.

On Tuesday, crude oil lost 2.47% as a stronger greenback pushed the price lower. As a result, light crude extended losses and broke below important support line. What impact could it have on future moves?

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Commodities

Thursday, January 07, 2016

Crude Oil Price Tanks but Oil Tankers are Filling Up and Raking it In / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Sol_Palha

"A man, when he wishes, is the master of his fate." ~ Jose Ferrer

While oil continues to drop, there is one sector connected to the oil market that is doing rather well. It is the oil tanker sector, and while oil is trading at 11-year lows, many stocks in this sector are already posting double digits gains over the past 12 months. This sector looks appealing both from the Contrarian and Mass psychology perspective for the following reasons.

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Commodities

Tuesday, January 05, 2016

Hedge Funds Remain Bullish Crude Oil Price / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Dan_Norcini

Just as the case with Silver, so do the hedge funds remain stubbornly long in crude oil.

Here is the updated COT chart as of last Tuesday, December 29, 2015.

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Commodities

Monday, January 04, 2016

Saudi Arabia and OPEC Manipulate Oil Prices to Eliminate It’s Competition / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Chris_Vermeulen

About eighteen months ago the international price of WTI Crude Oil, at the close of June 2014, was $105.93 per barrel. Flash-forward to today; the price of WTI Crude Oil was just holding above $38.00 per barrel, a drastic fall of more than 65% since June 2014. I will point out several reasons behind this sharp, sudden, and what now seems to be prolonged slump.

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Commodities

Thursday, December 31, 2015

Crude Oil and Gold – What Can We Infer from This Relationship? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadia_Simmons

Trading position (short-term; our opinion): Short positions (with a stop-loss order at $39.12 and an initial downside target at $33.66) are justified from the risk/reward perspective.

Although crude oil moved higher yesterday, the key resistance lines continue to keep gains in check. What does it mean for the commodity? Will the oil-to-gold ratio give us more clues about future moves?

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Commodities

Wednesday, December 30, 2015

The Crude Oil Price 2016 Prediction Game / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: EconMatters

Anybody who tells you they know where the oil market is headed for 2016 is inexperienced, too stupid to realize there are far too many variables in play that are unknowable to predict with any accuracy their effects on other variables in the oil equation, talking their own respective books, just piling in with the recent herd mentality on the street, giving an opinion about as valid as the best paint color for a room, or like to see themselves on television talking about the hot market moving topic du jour.

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Commodities

Wednesday, December 30, 2015

$10 Trillion Investment Needed To Avoid Massive Oil Price Spike Says OPEC / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

OPEC says that $10 trillion worth of investment will need to flow into oil and gas through 2040 in order to meet the world’s energy needs.

The OPEC published its World Oil Outlook 2015 (WOO) in late December, which struck a much more pessimistic note on the state of oil markets than in the past. On the one hand, OPEC does not see oil prices returning to triple-digit territory within the next 25 years, a strikingly bearish conclusion. The group expects oil prices to rise by an average of about $5 per year over the course of this decade, only reaching $80 per barrel in 2020. From there, it sees oil prices rising slowly, hitting $95 per barrel in 2040.

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Commodities

Wednesday, December 23, 2015

Congress Eliminates U.S. Export Oil Ban / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: BATR

If you want to know how the “so called” Free Trade exponents think about exports, just analyze the impact and actual beneficiaries of the US House passes bill to lift 40-year ban on oil exports.

“The crude export restrictions were introduced in the US in 1975 in the middle of the energy crisis. They followed OPEC’s oil embargo of the US and other countries backing Israel during the Arab–Israeli war of 1973. In the face of embargo-related high oil prices, Washington eased the limits on oil imports and ordered an export ban.”

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Commodities

Thursday, December 17, 2015

How Much Oil Is Needed To Power Santa's Sleigh? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

Every year around the world, hundreds of millions of children wait anxiously for Santa Claus to arrive and bring presents and good cheer. But what if Santa never came? What if this year the reindeer all fall ill, perhaps due to Crazy Reindeer disease (the analog to Mad Cow) and Santa is forced to cancel Christmas? The result would be devastating.

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Commodities

Tuesday, December 15, 2015

Will Lower Crude Oil Prices Cause the Fed to Delay Tightening? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Bob_Kirtley

The FOMC has been moving towards the beginning of a new tightening cycle for a considerable amount of time. Throughout this year Fed statements and the accompanying press conferences have been preparing the markets for the first rate hike. Since the October FOMC various Fed speakers have signalled to the market that the first hike would come at the December meeting, which is this week.

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Commodities

Tuesday, December 15, 2015

Crude Oil Extends Losses / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadia_Simmons

Trading position (short-term; our opinion): No positions are justified from the risk/reward perspective.

On Friday, crude oil lost 3.34% as a bearish report from the International Energy Agency added to worries over a supply glut and affected negatively investors' sentiment. In this environment, light crude dropped to a fresh 2015 low, slipping to the lowest level since Feb 2009. What's next?

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Commodities

Saturday, December 12, 2015

Are Low Crude Oil Prices a 'Boom Or A Curse' For The World Economy? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Chris_Vermeulen

The energy markets are tanking and are at levels that have not been seen since "The Recession" of 2009. Opinions are divided on the effects of the fall. Some say it is good for consumers, whereas, others say it is bad for the global economy. This article will analyze the overall effects of low crude oil prices on the industry, the major oil-producing nations, consumers and the overall global economy. The severity of the fall can be seen in the chart below.

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Commodities

Tuesday, December 08, 2015

Crude Oil Price Under $40! / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadia_Simmons

Trading position (short-term; our opinion): Short positions with a stop-loss order at $54.12 and initial (!) target price at $35.72 are justified from the risk/reward perspective.

On Friday, crude oil reversed and declined sharply after the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries' decision to keep production high weighed on investors' sentiment. Thanks to these circumstances, light crude lost 2.74% and slipped under the barrier of $40 once again. What's next?

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Politics

Friday, December 04, 2015

Why Is The U.S. Reluctant To Bomb ISIS Oil Fields? / Politics / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

There has been some revealing new information coming out recently regarding the strategy against ISIS. One aspect many find troubling is the apparent failure of U.S. and coalition forces to sufficiently target and destroy oil infrastructure located in ISIS territory, which accounts for a significant portion of the terror group's annual income. The argument goes, if we want to impact their operations, we should target their primary sources of income, and choke off their operational funds. So, why does ISIS oil infrastructure still stand? Is this the result of an intelligence failure? Negligence? Or, is there a more purposeful reason?

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Commodities

Tuesday, December 01, 2015

ISIS, Turkey And Oil – The Bigger Picture: Interview With Pelicourt / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

As the terrorist attack in Paris sparks worldwide fear of similar reprisals and a bloody shootout and hostage situation in a five-star Mali hotel exacerbates those concerns, global energy security reels under the pressure of unfathomable geopolitics. In an exclusive interview with Oilprice.com, Robert Bensh—managing director and partner at Pelicourt, a Western-owned oil and gas company navigating tricky conflict zones—discusses:

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Commodities

Tuesday, December 01, 2015

Crude Oil Erases Price Gains / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadia_Simmons

Trading position (short-term; our opinion): Short positions with a stop-loss order at $54.12 and initial (!) target price at $35.72 are justified from the risk/reward perspective.

On Friday, crude oil lost 3.31% as a stronger greenback weighed on the price of the commodity. Thanks to these circumstances, light crude moved away from its key resistance area and closed another week below it. Will this event encourage oil bears to act in the coming days?

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Commodities

Friday, November 20, 2015

Crude Oil Price - Where is it Headed? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Sol_Palha

All this talk and turmoil and noise and movement and desire is outside of the veil; within the veil is silence and calm and rest. ~ Bayazid Al-Bistami

On the 19th of this month, two articles were published at the same time, one stating that oil could go to $26 and the other stating that oil is ready to trade to $80. Which one is it going to be, $26 or $80 and how is the average Joe going to be able to discern which one is a depiction of what lies ahead. This is the problem with today's mass media, in their quest to attract eyeballs, bombastic and often conflicting articles are published simultaneously. One almost feels that most of the major sites have only one agenda, quantity over quality.

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Commodities

Wednesday, November 18, 2015

Saudis Planning For A War Of Attrition In Europe With Russia's Oil Industry / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

Russia's central bank recently warned about the growing financial risks to the Russian economy from Saudi Arabia encroaching upon its traditional export market for crude oil. Russia sends 70 percent of its oil to Europe, but Saudi Arabia has been making inroads in the European market amid the oil price downturn.

The result is a heavier discount for Russia's crude oil, the so-called Urals blend. Bloomberg reported that the Urals typically lands in Rotterdam, a major European destination, at a discount to Brent of around $2 or less. But the discount has widened to $3.50 lately due to increased competition from Saudi Arabia. "Oil supplies to Europe from Saudi Arabia are probably adversely affecting Urals prices," the Russian central bank warned in a recent report.

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Commodities

Wednesday, November 11, 2015

Rejecting the Keystone Pipeline / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

All thinking and rational students of economics and political policy should take note of the triumphed message sent out by the CREDO Action progressive group. The strategy to organize a massive civil disobedience confrontation has been absent from the public square for far too long. However, when the cause is so ill founded and based upon foolish economic realities, the protesting activists need to rethink their falsely placed suppositions.

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Commodities

Tuesday, November 10, 2015

Political Climate Shifting Against The Oil And Gas Industry / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

Oil and gas companies have had a tough time over the past year trying to weather the storm of falling oil prices. But the political and financial winds are moving in the wrong direction for the industry, raising more "above ground" problems at a time that they can ill-afford it.

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Commodities

Friday, November 06, 2015

Oil Megaprojects Won't Stay On The Shelf For Long / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

One casualty of the oil price downturn could be the megaproject.

For years, as conventional oil reserves depleted and became increasingly hard to find, oil companies ventured into far-flung locales to find new sources of production. Extracting oil from these frontier areas required more advanced technology and a lot more capital: Ultra deepwater, Arctic offshore, heavy oil sands, and increasingly, the Lower Tertiary.

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Commodities

Thursday, November 05, 2015

Crude Oil Price More Weakness In Sight / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Gregor_Horvat

Crude oil has turned up in September when price broke out of a triangle placed in wave (b) so wave (c) was final with wave 4 pullback that reached 50.50 resistance from where sell-off occurred in October. As such, we suspect that WTI made a new swing now that will send price down into wave 5 back to 37.70. Broken corrective channel also suggests more weakness ahead,but after wave (ii) is complete.

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Commodities

Sunday, November 01, 2015

Crude Oil Price Set For Big Rally / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Austin_Galt

The oil price has had a nice rise in the past week so let’s see just what is going on using the weekly and daily charts.

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Commodities

Wednesday, October 28, 2015

Stop Blaming OPEC For Low Oil Prices / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

We are a little more than a month away from OPEC's next meeting, which will be held in Vienna on December 4, 2015.

OPEC altered the course of the oil markets last year when it decided to cast aside its traditional role of maintaining balance through production cuts. Instead it pursued a strategy of fighting for market share, contributing to an immediate rout in oil prices. WTI and Brent then went on to dive below $50 in the weeks following OPEC's decision.

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Commodities

Thursday, October 22, 2015

USO Patience Before Picking Cycle Low / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Gary_Savage

A little more patience before trying to pick the cycle low in oil. RSI is just now getting oversold so its getting close.

I Like to see price close below the lower Bollinger band before trying to pick the bottom. Once it does then wait for a swing low to form.

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Commodities

Monday, October 19, 2015

Crude Oil Market Showdown: Can Russia Outlast The Saudis? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

"Two men enter, one man leaves, two men enter, one man leaves, two men enter..." - Mad Max: Beyond Thunderdome

November 27, oil consuming countries will celebrate the first anniversary of the Saudi decision to let market forces determine prices. This decision set crude prices on a downward path. Subsequently, to defend market share, the Saudis increased production, which exacerbated market oversupply and further pressured prices.
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Commodities

Monday, October 12, 2015

New Hedge Fund Buying Enters Crude Oil Market / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Dan_Norcini

First, let's start with an updated chart of the WTI Crude oil.

Crude has been in a range for most of the month of September oscillating near the 50 day moving average. It had been unable to do much in the way of additional upside however until this month, when it finally broke out above resistance at the top of the range near the $48 level. Friday it managed to best 50 on an intraday basis but then faded well off the highs heading into the close.

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Commodities

Tuesday, October 06, 2015

A Key Oil Price Trend That Everyone Is Missing / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Investment_U

David Fessler writes: My friend Rick Rule likes to say, “The cure for low prices is low prices.”

Here’s what’s supposed to happen...

Marginal producers can’t make money at today’s prices. Therefore they shut in wells (turn them off). As supplies get tighter, prices move higher.

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Politics

Tuesday, October 06, 2015

Is Russia Plotting To Bring Down OPEC? / Politics / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

President Putin's recent moves in the Middle East—to shore up Bashar al-Assad's regime in Syria through deployment of combat aircraft, equipment, and manpower and build-out of air-, naval-, and ground-force bases, and the agreement in the last week with Iran, Iraq, and Syria on intelligence and security cooperation—could contribute to Russian efforts to combat the myriad negative pressures on Russia's vital energy industry.

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Commodities

Tuesday, September 29, 2015

Crude Oil Price Is Going to Fall by 50%… Again / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: ...

Michael Lewitt writes: We’ve talked about the massive Debt Supercycle and why it can only end in the market crash I’m now predicting. (If you want a refresher, download my “Super Crash Report.”)

But there’s one connection we haven’t made yet.

The same thing just happened in the energy market.

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Commodities

Saturday, September 26, 2015

The Two Real Reasons Crude Oil Prices Are Currently Slipping / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: ...

Dr. Kent Moors writes: The Energy Information Administration just released its latest report on oil. And although I’m no conspiracy theorist, what’s going on in oil pricing has all the earmarks of a setup.

Each week, the report tells us what the crude oil and oil product markets looked like as of the previous Friday. It is usually the yardstick by which analysts appraise everything from oil supply through refinery utilization to the markets for processed products such as gasoline, diesel fuel, and low sulfur content heating oil.

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Commodities

Monday, September 21, 2015

What the Fed's Interest Rate "Hold" Means for Crude Oil Prices / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: ...

MoneyMorning.com Dr. Kent Moors writes: The nine years of historically low interest rates will continue in the wake of Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen's decision to not hike rates – to not yet remove the proverbial punchbowl from the easy-money party.

It was a classic "50-50" proposition; it didn't seem likely the Fed would move to roil global markets, but given the perceived strength of the labor market, a hike wasn't out of the question.

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Commodities

Saturday, September 19, 2015

This Is What Needs To Happen For Crude Oil Prices To Stabilize / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

On September 10th the EIA reported a production decline in the Lower 48 -- essentially shale production -- of 208,000 BOPD. That is a staggeringly enormous number, approximately 10 percent of the estimated global over-supply. Additionally, it was a week-over-week number which makes it all the more impressive. Yet it received little attention through the week. Rather, Goldman Sachs was grabbing all the headlines with its $20 call on oil.

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Commodities

Friday, September 18, 2015

Crude Oil Price Rises 29% in One Week... Here's What It Means / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: DailyWealth

Dr. Steve Sjuggerud writes: Oil prices SOARED 29% in one week at the end of August.
 
Specifically, the price of U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil went from $38.09 per barrel to $49.20 per barrel. That's a 29.2% increase in just five trading days – one of the most extreme short-term rises we've ever seen.
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Commodities

Thursday, September 17, 2015

What Today’s Fed Decision Means for Crude Oil Prices / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: ...

MoneyMorning.com Dr. Kent Moors writes: After nine years of historically low interest rates, the Fed is finally getting ready to remove the proverbial punchbowl from the easy-money party.

As it stands, Yellen & Company are only contemplating a mere 25 basis rate hike and even that now seems unlikely.

According to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool, the Fed Funds futures contracts are pricing in a below 25% chance of a rate hike later this afternoon.

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News_Letter

Tuesday, September 15, 2015

Crude Oil Price Forecast 2015 and 2016 / News_Letter / Crude Oil

By: NewsLetter

The Market Oracle Newsletter Sept 1st, 2015
Issue # 16 Vol. 9

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Commodities

Thursday, September 10, 2015

How Politics Make for Strange “Oil Fellows” / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: ...

MoneyMorning.com Dr. Kent Moors writes: I have decided to write a long prelude today to a discussion that will conclude in the next edition of Oil & Energy Investor. There is something quite significant afoot. But in the process of describing what is happening now, I need to travel back, first personally some several decades, and then over a century earlier in literature.

When you read this I happen to be in Europe on one of those new high-speed trains. The conveyance may be a recent change, but the terrain whisking by my window is only too well remembered from an earlier life. This had at one time been a quite personal stage for some very high-risk objectives.

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Commodities

Tuesday, September 08, 2015

The Default Next Move For Crude Oil Price Is Downwards, And Here's Why / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

As traders, investors and pundits, we all like to think that what we do is akin to a science. We believe that by working harder and being smarter we can give ourselves an edge, that enough research will reveal to us the next move, either a long term trend or an intraday blip on a chart, and that we can profit from that knowledge. Usually, especially over longer time spans, we are correct in that assumption. Sometimes, however, no amount of fundamental or technical analysis will help.

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Commodities

Saturday, September 05, 2015

Oil Stocks - Interim or Major Reversal? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadia_Simmons

In the second half of August, Chinese equities have been under heavy selling pressure as a fear over China's slowing economy and worries that Beijing may allow the Yuan to continue to depreciate have weighed on investors' sentiment. Moreover, disappointing economic data fuelled that fears, which resulted in a sharp decline on China's stock market. In less than two weeks, the Shanghai Composite declined from (almost) 4,000 below the next psychologically important barrier of 3,000, hitting fresh 2015 lows.

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Commodities

Thursday, September 03, 2015

Crude Oil Price Sinking or Rebounding? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadia_Simmons

Trading position (short-term; our opinion): No speculative positions are justified from the risk/reward perspective.

On Tuesday, crude oil reversed and declined sharply as weak Chinese data weighed on investors' sentiment. As a result, the commodity approached support levels, but will they encourage oil bulls to act in the coming days?

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Commodities

Thursday, September 03, 2015

How OPEC’s Attempt to Save Face Affects the Crude Oil Market / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: ...

Dr. Kent Moors writes: Just as I was finishing up Monday’s Oil & Energy Investor, information emerged that something was happening with OPEC. I made mention of it in a note appended at the end of that installment, finishing with the observation that it “Looks like somebody just blinked.”

Well, that somebody is OPEC, and there is much more behind this development, leading to today’s discussion.

In its monthly report released on Monday, OPEC indicated it is now willing to discuss production levels with other non-OPEC countries. This is the first indication that the low crude oil price environment has been creating serious problems inside the cartel.

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Commodities

Thursday, September 03, 2015

Crude Oil Price Forecast 2015 and 2016 - Video / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The crude oil price has relentlessly trended lower all year to an unimaginably low price low of $37 of just a few days ago, falling from $100 a year ago. The severe bear market has not only caught many market commentators off guard but has had a devastating impact on several major economies that are heavily reliant on high oil prices such as Russia, the gulf states, and other emerging markets reliant on their energy sector tax revenues to finance state spending and of course Britain's very own Scotland that a year ago was toying with idea of committing social and economic suicide (independence referendum).

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Commodities

Tuesday, September 01, 2015

OPEC Divorce And Self-Destruction Thanks To Saudi Crude Oil Strategy? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

"If you are the world's leading energy economy, you produce energy, that's what you do."

"A government can stay irrational longer than it can stay solvent."

"Even in the short term, you're dead, if you commit suicide."

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Commodities

Tuesday, September 01, 2015

Is Crude Oil Price Bouncing Into Recovery? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Harry_Dent

The global economy has $57 trillion more debt now than it did at the last bubble peak in 2008. The energy sector alone has $248 billion in junk bond debt – some of the riskiest debt there is!

Entire industries have been built upon this credit-fueled bubble, driven by the easy-money policies of central banks around the world.

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Commodities

Tuesday, September 01, 2015

Crude Oil Price Forecast 2015 and 2016 / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The crude oil price has relentlessly trended lower all year to an unimaginably low price low of $37 of just a few days ago, falling from $100 a year ago. The severe bear market has not only caught many market commentators off guard but has had a devastating impact on several major economies that are heavily reliant on high oil prices such as Russia, the gulf states, and other emerging markets reliant on their energy sector tax revenues to finance state spending and of course Britain's very own Scotland that a year ago was toying with idea of committing social and economic suicide (independence referendum).

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Commodities

Thursday, August 27, 2015

Crude Oil Price One-day Rebound or Something More? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadia_Simmons

Trading position (short-term; our opinion): Short positions with a stop-loss order at $45.32 and profit-take order at $35.72 are justified from the risk/reward perspective.

On Tuesday, crude oil gained 4.15% after China's central bank cut interest rates. Thanks to this news, light crude reversed and invalidated Monday’s breakdown under the support line. Despite this move, the commodity still remains under the barrier of $40. Will it stop further improvement in the coming days?

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Commodities

Wednesday, August 26, 2015

Here’s What Happens When Crude Oil Geo-Policy and Market Reality Collide / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: ...

MoneyMorning.com Dr. Kent Moors writes: Over 220 years ago, a Scottish writer by the name of Thomas Carlyle provided a personal account of what Paris was like during the French Revolution. The three-volume work (which at one point I suggested in an academic article was two volumes longer than necessary) is full of personal anecdotes. One of them is particularly relevant these days.

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Commodities

Tuesday, August 25, 2015

Saudis Could Face An Open Revolt At Next OPEC Oil Meeting / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

OPEC next gathers December 4 in Vienna, just over a year since Saudi Oil Minister Ali Al-Naimi announced at the previous OPEC winter meeting the Saudi decision to let the oil market determine oil prices rather than to continue Saudi Arabia’s role of guarantor of $100+/bbl oil.

Despite the intense financial and economic pain this decision has inflicted on Saudi Arabia, its fellow OPEC members, and other oil producers, the Saudis have given no indication they plan to alter course. In fact, Saudis have downplayed the impact of lower prices on their country, asserting that the kingdom has the financial wherewithal to withstand lower oil prices.

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Commodities

Wednesday, August 19, 2015

Crude Oil Energy Markets and Jobs Disintegrating / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Dan_Norcini

The US Energy Information Administration released their weekly data this morning as usual. The reaction to the data from crude oil was anything but the usual. Most everyone in the industry was looking for a draw in crude oil stockpiles especially after yesterday afternoon’s API data showed a reduction in supplies.

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Commodities

Wednesday, August 19, 2015

Crude Oil Price Time for Reversal? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadia_Simmons

Trading position (short-term; our opinion): No positions are justified from the risk/reward perspective.

On Tuesday, crude oil gained 1.17% as hopes that crude oil inventories could decline for a third consecutive week weighed on investors' sentiment. Thanks to these circumstances, light crude bounced off its key support line, but will we see the commodity above $43 in near future?

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Commodities

Wednesday, August 19, 2015

Crude Oil Price Works In Mysterious Ways / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: EWI

But there is one solution to staying ahead of oil's trend changes -- Elliott wave analysis

You know the expression "God works in mysterious ways"?

Well, according to an August 6 CNBC article, the price action of one financial market -- i.e., crude oil -- has out-mystified even God himself. Or, rather, the well-heeled star of the oil world, Andy Hall -- a.k.a. "God Trader."

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Commodities

Tuesday, August 18, 2015

Energy Demand Collapse Followed by Supply Collapse / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nicole_Foss

As we have noted many times, energy is the master resource, and has been the primary driver of an expansion dating back to the beginning of the industrial revolution. In fossil fuels humanity discovered the ‘holy grail’ of energy sources – highly concentrated, reasonably easy to obtain, transportable and processable into many useful forms. Without this discovery, it is unlikely that any human empire would have exceeded the scale and technological sophistication of Rome at its height, but with it we incrementally developed the capacity to reach for the stars along an exponential growth curve.

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Commodities

Saturday, August 15, 2015

The World is Awash in Oil / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: EWI

...But does that mean that oil prices will only go down from here?

In this new interview with Elliott Wave International's Chief Energy Analyst, Steve Craig, you'll learn where he sees prices going next.

*Editor's note: this interview was recorded on August 12; the price low cited in the video was broken on August 13.

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Commodities

Friday, August 14, 2015

Crude Oil's Slippery Slope: How Far Will Prices Fall? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: EWI

One prominent analyst says oil prices will drop much further

Editor's note: You'll find the text version of the story below the video.

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Commodities

Thursday, August 13, 2015

Crude Oil Price Reverses - Was that THE Bottom? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadia_Simmons

Trading position (short-term; our opinion): No positions are justified from the risk/reward perspective.

Crude oil declined yesterday, but the session was not without a rebound. In fact, the move higher continues also today as black gold is at almost $44. Have we just seen a major triple bottom in crude oil?

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Commodities

Thursday, August 13, 2015

Saudi Crude Oil Strategy: Brilliant Or Suicide? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

In the last quarter of 2014, in the face of possible oversupply, Saudi Arabia abandoned its traditional role as the global oil market's swing producer and therefore it role as unofficial guarantor of existing ($100+ per barrel) prices.

In October, Saudi sources first prepared the market with statements that the country would be comfortable with oil prices as low as $80 per barrel for "a year or two." At the November OPEC meeting, the Saudi oil minister, Ali Al-Naimi, publicly announced Saudi Arabia would allow market forces to set prices. He argued that rapidly growing production outside OPEC made the existing status quo unviable, and that lower prices in the short term would increase prices in the longer term through reduced investment and ultimately benefit all OPEC members.

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Commodities

Thursday, August 13, 2015

The Saudi Crude Oil Price War Is Backfiring / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

Saudi Arabia has long enjoyed the status of being the top crude oil exporter in the world. With record production of 10.564 million barrels per day in June 2015, Saudi Arabia has been one of the major driving forces behind the current oil price slump.

The Saudis have kept their production levels high since last year in order to drive other players (especially U.S. shale drillers) out of business. Equally clear is the fact that this strategy of maintaining the glut and driving out rivals hasn't worked so far.

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Commodities

Wednesday, August 12, 2015

What China’s Surprise Announcement Means for Crude Oil / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: ...

MoneyMorning.com Dr. Kent Moors writes: The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) just decided to cut the value of the Chinese currency, the yuan, by 2%.

The announcement took analysts by surprise and signaled that Beijing has decided to shore up a weakness in exports. It will now almost certainly usher in similar moves by other Asian countries that are China’s exporting competitors.

And behind that cut U.S. oil and gas producers face another painful period.

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Commodities

Friday, August 07, 2015

Global Crude Oil Supply More Fragile Than You Think / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

Many oil companies had trimmed their budgets heading into 2015 to deal with lower oil prices. But the rebound in April and May to $60 per barrel from the mid-$40s suggested that the severe drop was merely temporary.

But the collapse of prices in July – owing to the Iran nuclear deal, an ongoing production surplus, and economic and financial concerns in Greece and China – have darkened the mood. Now a prevailing sense that oil prices may stay lower for longer has hit the markets.

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Commodities

Thursday, August 06, 2015

Could WTI Crude Oil Price Trade At A Premium To Brent By Next Year? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

A flood of bearish news has pushed down oil prices to their lowest levels in months, with WTI nearing $45 per barrel and Brent flirting with sub-$50 territory.

With a bear market back, there is pessimism throughout the oil markets. Goldman Sachs is even predicting oil stays at $50 through 2020, a profoundly grim view of the state of oil supplies.

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Commodities

Thursday, August 06, 2015

Crude Oil Price Time for Reversal? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadia_Simmons

Trading position (short-term; our opinion): Short positions with a stop-loss order at $65.23 are justified from the risk/reward perspective.

On Tuesday, crude oil moved higher after the market's open supported by hopes for another decline in U.S. stockpiles. Thanks to these circumstances, light crude bounced off the multi-month low and gained 1.48%. Did this increase change anything in the short-term picture of the commodity?

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Commodities

Wednesday, August 05, 2015

The Four Real Reasons Crude Oil Prices Are Slipping / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: ...

MoneyMorning.com Dr. Kent Moors writes: As I write, I am flying from Kansas to Baltimore. I’ll be visiting Money Map Press headquarters to discuss some exciting developments we’ll tell you about shortly.

But today’s Oil & Energy Investor is all about where I have just been…

Years ago, a legendary wildcatter told me you have to smell the crude and get it under your fingernails before anybody should call you a genuine oilman.

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Commodities

Tuesday, August 04, 2015

Top 6 Myths Driving Oil Prices Down / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

"Whoever would overthrow the liberty of a nation must begin by subduing the freeness of speech." ~ Benjamin Franklin, Silence Dogood, The Busy-Body, and Early Writings

I start with that quote because once the media, as well as politicians for that matter, have no accountability for actions or words then liberty will dissolve. Over the last few weeks I have witnessed another litany of lies that the media insists on putting forth. They come in the form of statements presented as facts to sway opinion while others are opinions quoted by others. Either way, the bias in talking down oil prices, reinforcing the "glut" that is fueled in part by misleading EIA and IEA data, is readily apparent.

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Commodities

Tuesday, August 04, 2015

Crude Oil Price at Levels Not Seen Since March / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadia_Simmons

Trading position (short-term; our opinion): Short positions with a stop-loss order at $65.23 are justified from the risk/reward perspective.

On Friday, crude oil declined sharply after news that production among OPEC members in July pushed supply at the oil cartel to its highest level in seven years. In this environment, light crude lost 3.45% and re-tested the Jul low. Where will oil bears take the commodity in the coming days?

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Commodities

Monday, August 03, 2015

Crude Oil USO ETF Elliott Wave Analysis / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: WavePatternTraders

USO

It’s been 6 weeks since the last post of Oil http://www.wavepatterntraders.com/elliott-wave-analysis-of-uso-oil/ In that time we have a seen a great decline for those that have been short this market, looking at the gyrations I think based on the CL contract, I suspect USO is only ending wave 3, so whilst we should be close to a short term low for wave 3, the likelihood is that any bounce for wave 4 should prove to be a bull trap and then target new lows for wave 5.

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Commodities

Wednesday, July 29, 2015

Crude Oil Price Is Lower – and You’re Richer / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: ...

MoneyMorning.com Shah Gilani writes: On July 16, I gave you the real story on why oil prices are falling – and a trade to make you some easy money.

Since then, West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the U.S. crude oil benchmark, is down 5%. As of midday yesterday, the October $15 puts on the United States Oil Fund LP ETF (NYSE ARCA: USO) that I recommended buying when they were trading at 50 cents each were up 40%, and trading at 70 cents each.

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Commodities

Tuesday, July 28, 2015

Will Crude Oil Price Decline Continue? -Video / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: EWI

Elliott Wave International's Chief Energy Analyst tells you what he sees next for crude

In this new interview, Steve Craig, editor of Elliott Wave International's Energy Pro Service, shows you what extreme readings in some of his market indicators mean for crude from here.

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Commodities

Tuesday, July 28, 2015

Saudis Expand Crude Oil Price War Downstream / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

The undisputed king of oil and gas is making some moves that could change the face of the global refining sector.

In June 2015, Saudi Arabia pumped a record 10.564 million barrels a day, a record level. As if being the world's biggest exporter of oil was not enough, the desert kingdom is now looking to conquer the refining sector as it has quickly become the fourth largest refiner in the world.

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Commodities

Tuesday, July 28, 2015

The Iran Nuclear Deal is Mostly about Oil / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: John_Browne

The recent nuclear non-proliferation agreement between Iran and the U.S. has created a firestorm debate in the Middle East and both sides of the Atlantic. While the deal is supposedly all about nuclear power and nuclear bombs, its practical implications are all about oil. But the conclusions we should make about its impact on the energy sector are far from clear. A ratification of the deal would allow Iran to make lucrative long term production and distribution contracts with foreign energy firms. However, freely flowing oil from Iran would add significant new oil supply into the world markets, disrupt U.S. plans to become an energy exporter, and could potentially put further downward pressure on prices.

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Commodities

Monday, July 27, 2015

Crude Oil Price Under $48! / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadia_Simmons

Trading position (short-term; our opinion): Short positions with a stop-loss order at $65.23 are justified from the risk/reward perspective.

On Friday, crude oil extended losses after bearish Baker Hughes report. As a result, light crude lost 1.82% and hit a fresh multi-month low. Where will the commodity head next in the coming days?

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Commodities

Friday, July 24, 2015

OPEC Shorts Are Driving Down the Crude Oil Price / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: ...

MoneyMorning.com Dr. Kent Moors writes: The conflict between OPEC and U.S. shale/tight oil producers has entered a new phase. And the result has been an accelerated decline in oil prices.

Last November (on Thanksgiving no less), Saudi Arabia led an OPEC decision to hold production stable, followed by a later significant increase in volume. For the first time, the cartel had opted to protect market share rather than price.

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Commodities

Thursday, July 23, 2015

Crude Oil Price Slump is a Once in a Decade Opportunity to Make Money, Guaranteed / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Atlantic_Perspective

All investments carry risk. There are no safe investments in the sense that “you just can´t lose”. But risk can be greatly reduced, according to the entry point and the timespan of the investment.

The commodities cycle
The world is currently awashed in oil and natural gas. This is the reality of today. But as sure as day follows night, this glut will turn into production deficit over the next few years. All commodities traders know this and have seen gluts turn into deficits dozens of times, in different markets.  Why does this happen?

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Commodities

Wednesday, July 22, 2015

Crude Oil Price Barrier of $50 Holds - For Now / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadia_Simmons

Trading position (short-term; our opinion): Short positions with a stop-loss order at $65.23 are justified from the risk/reward perspective.

Although crude oil declined after the market's open, hitting a fresh multi-month low, the commodity rebounded in the following hours and closed the day above the Jul 7 low. Did this upswing change anything in the short-term picture of crude oil?

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Commodities

Thursday, July 16, 2015

The Multi-Trillion Dollar Oil Market Swindle / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

In the past, I documented the overstatements by both the IEA and EIA in 2014 & 2015 in terms of supply, inventory and understatements of demand. Others also noticed these distortions and, whether intentional or not, they exist and they are very large in dollar terms. These distortions, which are affecting price through media hype and/or direct/indirect price manipulation, are quite possibly the largest in financial history.

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Commodities

Wednesday, July 15, 2015

OPEC, Get Ready For The Second U.S. Oil Boom / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

What OPEC countries fear most is a follow-up technological revolution that will lead to a second oil boom in the U.S., and that fear is now being realized.

A technological revolution spurred the U.S. oil boom that resulted in the greatest increase in domestic oil production in a century, and while that has stuttered in the face of a major oil price slump and an OPEC campaign to maintain a grip on market share, the American response could be another technological revolution that demonstrates that the first one was merely an impressive embryonic experiment.

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Commodities

Wednesday, July 08, 2015

Don't Panic, Nothing Has Really Changed In The Oil Markets / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

Monday's 8% WTI crude decline is setting up a big opportunity for buyers. And there could be more to come. But this is driven by momentum, not by the fundamental conditions in the physical market.

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Commodities

Wednesday, July 08, 2015

The Three Events That Just Sent Crude Oil Price Sinking… and Why There’s No Need to Panic / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: ...

MoneyMorning.com Dr. Kent Moors writes: Yesterday, three geopolitical crises converged, sending the price of oil sinking.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the benchmark for crude set in New York, was down 8%. Dated Brent, the internationally used benchmark set in London, slipped 6%.

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Commodities

Tuesday, July 07, 2015

Brent Crude Oil Price Breaks out of Bearish Wedge / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: MarketsToday

Brent Crude broke down from a bearish rising wedge formation several weeks ago, trading relatively sideways thereafter, until the tail end of last week when it fell below and closed below $60.97. The 50% retracement at $57.41 was surpassed yesterday to the downside, with the next target being around the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at $54.53, followed by the most recent swing low (C) at $52.61.

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Commodities

Saturday, July 04, 2015

Crude Oil Price Forecast to Plunge Below $40 / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Gary_Savage

In the after hours trading on Thursday oil broke below the May daily cycle low indicating a failed daily cycle is in progress, and confirming the intermediate top occurred on May 6th.

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Commodities

Friday, July 03, 2015

How the New Iranian Nuclear Deal Will Impact Crude Oil / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: ...

MoneyMorning.com Dr. Kent Moors writes: This week, reports emerged that a draft deal on Iran’s nuclear program would be reviewed by the Western negotiators. Crude oil prices plummeted – West Texas Intermediate (WTI) closed down 4.2%, at $56.96 a barrel, the lowest since April 22.

The concern spurring the decline is that an agreement would lift the Western sanctions and allow Iranian oil to flood into the market, propelling prices down.

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Commodities

Wednesday, July 01, 2015

How the Latest Greek Drama Will Affect the Price of Crude Oil / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: ...

MoneyMorning.com Dr. Kent Moors writes: In Greek history, there is a story that after devising the Athenian system of governance the great classical lawgiver Solon was walking down from the sacred council site of the Areopagus when he was greeted by another citizen.

“Well, Solon, did you give Athens the best constitution possible?” the fellow asked.

“No,” Solon responded. “I gave her the best constitution she could accept.”

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Commodities

Monday, June 29, 2015

U.S. Crude Oil Glut An EIA Invention? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

In the latest weekly production data from the EIA, on the back of recent March revisions, the U.S. managed to post a 76,000 barrel per day increase in the lower 48. Production from Alaska fell by 61,000 barrels per day, putting overall U.S. output 15,000 barrels per day higher for the week ending June 12 compared to the previous week.

This comes at a time when multimillion barrel draws have become the norm. It is important to note that lower 48 production is estimated based on an EIA black box model, while Alaska is virtually real time data. That suggests that the weekly supply estimates are hugely overestimated.

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Commodities

Friday, June 26, 2015

Crude Oil Price Nearing Exhaustion / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Bob_Loukas

For an asset like Crude, which is normally extremely volatile, the current prolonged sideways range is very much out of character. Crude has us accustomed to daily swings of 2% to 3%, and to shorter term rallies/declines that draw in traders before reversing suddenly. Crude is generally an asset that fluctuates in price, so the current “flat-line” action is rare.  Since the last Daily Cycle peaked on May 6th, Crude oil has been locked in a sideways trading range. Short term traders, expecting the usual crude oil volatility, are being chopped to pieces.

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Commodities

Wednesday, June 24, 2015

Why I'm Revising My Crude Oil Price Outlook… Upward / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: ...

MoneyMorning.com Kent Moors writes: I just left a closed-door meeting in Paris. Assembled here were some high-powered oil practitioners, the traders selling their productions, and the bankers financing all of it.

As often happens, the pundits and talking heads have been discussing matters quite similar to what was on our agenda. And as usual, their perspectives are very different from those of us "behind the scenes."

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Companies

Wednesday, June 24, 2015

Expect A Wave Of Consolidation In The Oil Industry / Companies / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

As stated previously, asset monetization by small E&P operators will start in earnest in the second half of this year out of cash flow necessity. Most, if not all, smaller market capitalization companies, public or private, are still free cash flow negative (operating cash flow less capital expenditure) and only a few of the larger ones are now, or will be, based on guidance. The point is, with volumes languishing (and probably poised to decline) tied to a flat oil futures price curve and with economics marginal at $60 per barrel, many E&P operators find themselves running through hedges in 2015 and still in need to finance their already reduced capital spending.

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Commodities

Saturday, June 20, 2015

Where is the Crude Oil Price Heading Next / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Investment_U

Bob Creed writes: Last month, OPEC held its 167th meeting in Vienna, Austria. The two main takeaways?

  • One: The oil cartel will maintain production at 30 million barrels per day (bpd), with unofficial numbers above that.
  • Two: Saudi Arabia’s price war against U.S. shale producers will continue.
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Commodities

Saturday, June 13, 2015

The Latest Saudi Ploy to Control World Oil Prices / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: ...

MoneyMorning.com Dr. Kent Moors writes: From the hundreds of oil benchmark rates used around the world, two set daily have been dominant in determining the prices for the buying and selling of crude. One is Dated Brent, set in London and representing the average price from a basket of North Sea offshore production. The other is West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the grade set in New York.

As I have noted often in Oil & Energy Investor, Brent is applied more often in international trade than WTI. However, both of these benchmarks are better oil grades than well over 80% of all the oil actually traded.

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Commodities

Thursday, June 11, 2015

Busting The "Canadian Bakken" Shale Oil Myth / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

The financial pages of Canadian newspapers have been full of headlines lately announcing the potential of two large shale oil fields in the Northwest Territories said to contain enough oil to rival the Bakken Formation of North Dakota and Montana.

The report by Canada's National Energy Board (NEB) evaluated, for the first time, the volume of oil in place for the Canol and Bluefish shale formations, located in the territory's Mackenzie Plain. It found the "thick and geographically extensive" Canol formation is expected to contain 145 billion barrels of oil, while the "much thinner" Bluefish shale contains 46 billion barrels.

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Commodities

Wednesday, June 10, 2015

key Issues Affecting the London Oil Market Today / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: ...

MoneyMorning.com Dr. Kent Moors writes: Greetings from London, where I am hosting a special three-day event for a special group of subscribers. The sessions follow almost a year of preparation and are introducing a major stimulus to profits from investing in worldwide energy.

You will be hearing more about this approach in the future, so stay tuned.

Today, however, we have an immediate development to consider. The London market is again trying to make sense of events in oil. As I have noted here in Oil & Energy Investor on many occasions, the oil trade in London and the Dated Brent benchmark set here daily are more sensitive to global events than the trade in New York (where the other major benchmark, West Texas Intermediate, or WTI, is set).

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Politics

Thursday, June 04, 2015

The Evolution Of The Oil Weapon / Politics / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

In the age of derivatives, swaps, and electronic money transfers, a new form of warfare has emerged: financial warfare.

Recently, the US has passed sanctions on countries such as Syria, Venezuela, and North Korea , but the majority of energy related sanctions passed have been targeted at Iran and Russia.

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Commodities

Tuesday, June 02, 2015

Why Oil’s Price Is Baffling Analysts (but Not Us) / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: ...

MoneyMorning.com Dr. Kent Moors writes: It sure has been amusing to watch the oil instant experts trying to shove “square peg” explanations into “round hole” price moves this week.

For most of yesterday’s trading session, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices were declining about 1% after a huge 4.5% rise on Friday. Once again, the “experts” had instant prognostications, once again they signaled a familiar refrain – a strong dollar, oversupply – and once again they missed the boat.

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Commodities

Saturday, May 30, 2015

U.S. Crude Oil Production Sets New Modern Record / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: EconMatters

EIA Report

I looked over the weekly Petroleum Inventory Report put out by the EIA today, and the biggest takeaway by far was that U.S. oil production set a new modern era high at 9.566 Million Barrels per day. The last high in U.S. production occurred in March, and it appeared that the U.S. production numbers were getting slightly weaker, and maybe the top in U.S. production was in. But this past week Production really ramped back up with a blowout number, and if it wasn`t for a week in which imports were unusually low for the week, there would have been another huge build in Oil Inventories for the week.
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Commodities

Tuesday, May 26, 2015

Crude Oil Price Stochastic Signals / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadia_Simmons

Trading position (short-term; our opinion): Short positions with a stop-loss order at $65.23 are justified from the risk/reward perspective.

The Stochastic indicator is quite a popular tool for commodity traders (including those interested in trading crude oil and precious metals) and it is not without a reason. This indicator has proven itself many times as something that can really indicate the next move in the market – however, it has to be applied carefully, as not all ways in which it works are really profitable. We have just seen 2 signals from this important indicator – one bullish (based on daily closing prices) and one bearish (based on weekly closing prices). Which should one focus on?

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Commodities

Wednesday, May 20, 2015

Three Hidden Forces Pushing Crude Oil Price Back Up / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: ...

MoneyMorning.com Dr. Kent Moors writes: The overall trajectory for oil prices remains upward, despite taking a breather today. I still see prices reaching $65-68 for West Texas Intermediate (WTI, the benchmark traded on the NYMEX) and $73-78 for Dated Brent (the other major benchmark set daily in London).

But this is hardly going to be a straight, linear rise. Rather, it’s going to occur in what I call a “ratcheting” pattern: occasionally jerking downward along the way.

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Commodities

Tuesday, May 19, 2015

Crude Oil Trading Alert - Price Drops to Neck Line / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadia_Simmons

Trading position (short-term; our opinion): Short positions with a stop-loss order at $65.23 are justified from the risk/reward perspective.

On Friday, crude oil gained 0.49% as a weaker greenback supported the price. As a result, light crude bounced off the neck line of a bearish formation. Will we see further improvement in the coming days?

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Commodities

Wednesday, May 13, 2015

Debunking the Newest Crude Oil Price Myth / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: ...

MoneyMorning.com Dr. Kent Moors writes: We've seen massive shifts in crude oil prices in recent weeks.

Of course, this has brought back some rather specious arguments by talking heads on TV and pundits spinning the next Armageddon scenario.

The latest is about how rising oil prices will prompt more volume to come online from a particular type of well (called DUCs), sending oil into another tailspin.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Commodities

Wednesday, May 13, 2015

Saudi Arabia Continues To Turn Screws On U.S. Oil Shale / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

Saudi Arabia continues to ratchet up production, taking market share away from U.S. shale producers.

According to OPEC's latest monthly oil report, Saudi Arabia boosted its oil output to 10.31 million barrels per day in April, a slight increase over the previous month's total of 10.29 million barrels. That was enough for the de facto OPEC leader to claim its highest oil production level in more than three decades.
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Commodities

Wednesday, May 13, 2015

The Real Key to This Week’s Crude Oil Price Uncertainty / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: ...

MoneyMorning.com Dr. Kent Moors writes: Quick update on oil, because it’s been quite the week already…

This morning West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the benchmark crude oil futures rate in New York, rose over $1 a barrel in less than three hours. Meanwhile in London, Brent (the more widely used international dated benchmark) has increased even faster – over $1.50 during the same period. Here’s where we stand as I write this:

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Commodities

Monday, May 11, 2015

Is Crude Oil Price Rally Over? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadia_Simmons

Trading position (short-term; our opinion): Short positions with a stop-loss order at $65.23 are justified from the risk/reward perspective.

On Friday, crude oil moved lower after the market’s open weakened by a stronger U.S. dollar. Despite this move, the commodity reversed and rebounded in the following hours, gaining 0.85% and closing the day above $59, but did this upswing change anything?

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Commodities

Sunday, May 10, 2015

Crude Oil Price Turn Coming? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Dan_Norcini

Crude has had a very nice recovery off its recent low set in mid-March with a steady climb of nearly $20 since that time. The push through the declining 50 day moving average was the first real clue that the complexion of this market had changed in late March with the deciding factor being the second thrust back up through it once more in early April. That cemented the low near $43 as a solid bottom in the market.

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Commodities

Friday, May 08, 2015

The Newest Crude Oil Price Myth / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: ...

MoneyMorning.com Dr. Kent Moors writes: We’ve seen massive shifts in crude oil prices over the past two days.

Of course, this has brought back some rather specious arguments by talking heads on TV and pundits spinning the next Armageddon scenario. The latest is about how rising oil prices will prompt more volume to come online from a particular type of well (called DUCs), sending oil into another tailspin.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Commodities

Thursday, May 07, 2015

How to Pick the Winners in the Keystone Oil Pipeline Debate / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: ...

MoneyMorning.com You might think the entire oil and gas industry is behind the Keystone XL Pipeline. And at the surface level that may be true. After all, the big oil industry lobby, the American Petroleum Institute (API), has spent millions promoting it through advertising and outreach to members of Congress. API are the folks who brought us all of those pro-Keystone commercials a few months ago.

Since API represents the industry, with over 600 members, the project must be good for everyone in the energy space, right?

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Commodities

Thursday, May 07, 2015

Crude Oil Price Hit 2015 High / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: EconMatters

Oil hit 2015 high with WTI at $60.40 and Bent at $68.40 end of trading on Tuesday. Crude prices have now risen 50% in just over three months.  The overall oil market sentiment is very bullish as CNBC reported hedge funds and money managers raised bets on rising Brent prices to another record, data showed on Monday, pushing net long positions to their highest since official exchange records began in 2011.

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Commodities

Wednesday, May 06, 2015

Keystone Pipeline and the Mixed Blessings of Cheap Oil / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: ...

MoneyMorning.com To understand the logic behind the Keystone XL pipeline requires a trip back in time. When Keystone and its associated 830,000 barrels of oil per day were announced in 2008, U.S. crude production was at lows generally not seen since 1950 – right around 5 million barrels per day. Meanwhile, U.S. oil imports were rampant, near their all-time highs of 10 million barrels a day. Worse yet, over half of U.S. imports, again a near-record high of 5.6 million barrels per day, came from countries that don’t like us very much (i.e., OPEC).

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Commodities

Wednesday, May 06, 2015

Crude Oil’s Big Move Comes Down to One Thing / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: ...

MoneyMorning.com Dr. Kent Moors writes: Look at this headline from the Houston Business Journal last week: “U.S. Rig Count Free Falls in Texas, Oil Prices ‘Unsustainable.'”

Or this one from Bloomberg Business, which reported Sunday: “The Shale Boom Has Already Gone Bust.”

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Commodities

Tuesday, May 05, 2015

The Truth Behind the Keystone Pipeline / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Money_Morning

Editor's Note: The Keystone Pipeline has created one of the biggest political debates of the last five years. And you're about to hear a lot more in the media as the we move closer to the State Department's final ruling on the project.

But what is the truth about Keystone? And where are the lies hidden? More importantly, where can we invest to exploit its ongoing political soap opera?

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Commodities

Tuesday, May 05, 2015

Crude Oil Price Meets Solid Resistance / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadia_Simmons

Trading position (short-term; our opinion): No positions are justified from the risk/reward perspective.

Although crude oil hit a fresh 2015 high on Friday, an increase in Iraq's export levels and a stronger greenback weighed on investors' sentiment and pushed the commodity lower. As a result, light crude lost 0.85% and closed the day under the previous high. Where will crude oil head next in the coming week?

On Friday, Baker Hughes showed in its weekly report that oil rigs fell by 24 last week to 679. With this drop, the number of active rigs has fallen for a record 21 weeks in a row (the lowest level since September 2010), but the pace of slowdown continued to decrease, which raised worries over another increase in domestic crude oil inventories.

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Commodities

Saturday, May 02, 2015

Crude Oil Price Bear Market Is Over / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Austin_Galt

I've said it before and I'll say it again. Forget about testing the 2009 lows. It ain't gonna happen. Not as far as I'm concerned anyway. The final low appears to be in place and while I think the downtrend is over I suspect the volatility is not.

Let's check out the technicals beginning with the small picture and then finishing with the big picture outlook.

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Commodities

Friday, May 01, 2015

How One Chart Is Changing My Outlook on Crude Oil Prices / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Money_Morning

Dr. Kent Moors writes: Today, something truly unique is underway – and you can see it clearly in the one simple chart I’m about to share.

The advent of huge shale and tight oil reserves in the U.S. has fundamentally altered the terrain of the international energy game.

We still call these reserves “unconventional” to distinguish them from traditional vertically drilled non-fracked wells. But due to the fact that most of the new production is coming from these rock-confined sources, they are certainly becoming mainstream.

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Commodities

Thursday, April 23, 2015

U.S. Oil Glut: How High Can It Go? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: GoldSilverWorlds

Oil Glut Build in PAD3 Gulf Coast

As expected, EIA on Wednesday reported for week ending April 17, U.S. crude-oil inventories gained 5.3 million barrels to 489 million barrels, which is still the highest in at least 80 years, according to the EIA. Looking closer at each PAD region, almost all the inventory adds occurred in Gulf Coast PAD3; meanwhile, Cushing, OK added 738,000 barrels.  Although 738,000 does not seem that bad by itself, Cushion is now is sitting on 62.2 million barrels of oil in storage (vs. a year ago inventory at 26 million barrels) , a new record high since April of 2004.  
Read full article... Read full article...

 


Commodities

Wednesday, April 22, 2015

How to Profit from the Drop in the Oil Price / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: GoldSilverWorlds

Over the past three quarters, the world has watched oil prices plummet from over $100 to its current price of $51/barrel of the grade West Texas Intermediate (WTI). Due to oil’s vital role in the global economy, this massive decline naturally raises questions as to the reasons behind the decline and the perdurability of these lower oil prices. Today we will give you a more in-depth analysis of what is going on in the oil market and offer potential investment implications resulting from these developments.

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Commodities

Monday, April 20, 2015

Crude Oil Price Bull Market Hope / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Bob_Loukas

I believe that energy analysts are absolutely delusional to think Crude production will slow significantly, especially with Oil back near the $60 mark. During the recent, lengthy bull market, tens of billions of Dollars were invested in Crude infrastructure, so there is too much at stake to simply shut down operations and walk away. Investors and participants in any industry that has experienced a 15 year bull market won't change their beliefs overnight - it takes time for sentiment to shift. Most are far too emotionally and financially vested in the industry, so it's unreasonable to think that a 9 month decline is going to drive an immediate adjustment to the imbalance in supply and demand.

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Commodities

Friday, April 17, 2015

Production Declines Hide Bigger Crude Oil Storage Issues / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: EconMatters

Storage Builds

Everyone this week focused on the slight production declines that this was a sign to go long oil, but what seemed to go under the radar was another build in both Cushing and the Gulf Coast storage hubs.

Cushing added another 1.3 million barrels to weekly storage and stands at 61.5 million barrels. The Gulf Coast added another 600 thousand barrels to storage and stands at 237 million barrels. By comparison Cushing had 26.8 million barrels in storage this time last year, and the Gulf Coast had 207.2 million barrels in storage a year ago.
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Commodities

Friday, April 17, 2015

Top Three Takeaways From Today’s OPEC Crude Oil Report… and How You Can Profit / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Money_Morning

Dr. Kent Moors writes: Today I’ve got a “below the surface” read on what is really happening inside OPEC.

Frankly, I had not planned to devote so many essays to the cartel and its policies. After all, the organization is no longer the center of the energy universe.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Commodities

Thursday, April 16, 2015

More Thoughts on the Current Crude Oil Market / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: EconMatters

WTI surged to close at $56.01 a barrel on Wednesday, while Brent closed at $62.86 after the US crude oil inventories showed a 'less-than-expected increase'. The latest weekly inventory (week ending April 10) from EIA showed an increase of 1.3 million barrels, much less than the 10.9 million barrels of build from the previous week. The report also showed that total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 2.1 million barrels, while distillate stockpiles rose by 2.0 million barrels.

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Commodities

Wednesday, April 15, 2015

OPEC Going Broke, Dumping U.S. Dollars. Is That Good Or Bad? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: John_Rubino

When oil prices fell out of bed last winter there was much hand-wringing over the fate of the former beneficiaries of high-priced crude. Trillions of dollars of junk bonds issued by frackers, for instance, might default, oil field services companies could fail, and layoffs in the oil patch might swamp the nascent employment recovery.

Some of this has happened, though not on the apocalyptic scale the worst-case scenarios suggested. More might be coming, but right now it’s not headline news in North America.

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Commodities

Wednesday, April 15, 2015

OPEC Just Confirmed It’s Losing the Oil War / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Money_Morning

Dr. Kent Moors writes: The solid façade of OPEC is crumbling.

The latest indication that all is not well within the ranks of the oil cartel came yesterday, when the organization released its monthly Bulletin.

Inside the magazine, the commentary slammed non-member nations for failing to follow the organization’s lead in “stabilizing” oil prices and having “go it alone” attitudes.

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Commodities

Wednesday, April 15, 2015

Crude Oil Price Technical Outlook / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Donald_W_Dony

Following part 1 of the Technical outlook for oil on April 7, this report examines the effect of the secular Commodity cycle on stocks (S&P 500), the U.S dollar on the CRB and WTIC's price since 1980.

Chart 1 is the S&P 500 since 1960. It traces the different trading patterns of the U.S. index during a secular Commodity cycle (1965-1980), a Stock cycle (1980-2000) and through another Commodity cycle (2000-2013) and the beginning of a new Stock cycle (2013 to present).

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Commodities

Friday, April 10, 2015

Oil Price - How Much Longer Can OPEC Hold Out? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

OPEC has been the most talked about international organization among investors, analysts and international political lobbies in the last few months.

When OPEC speaks, the world listens in rapt attention as it accounts for nearly 40 % of the world's total crude output. With its headquarters in Vienna, Austria, one of the mandates of 12- member OPEC is to "ensure the stabilization of oil markets in order to secure an efficient, economic and regular supply of petroleum to consumers, a steady income to producers, and a fair return on capital for those investing in the petroleum industry." (Source: opec.org).

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Commodities

Friday, April 10, 2015

Saudi Arabia Just Delivered Another Strike in the “Oil War” / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Money_Morning

Dr. Kent Moors writes: Saudi Arabia just sent the most powerful signal yet it means business in the “Oil War.”

On Tuesday, oil minister Ali al-Naimi revealed Saudi oil production jumped in March to 10.3 million barrels a day.

That marked an increase of 700,000 barrels per day from February, or the biggest ramp in production since November 2011. That figure is now expected to remain around 10 million barrels for some time.

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Commodities

Thursday, April 09, 2015

Iran Nuclear "Deal" Won't Drive Crude Oil Prices Lower / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

Dr. Kent Moors writes: Here at Money Morning we recently had the opportunity to sit down with Dr. Kent Moors, Money Map Press' Global Energy Strategist, for a quick chat about oil.

Kent had taken time out of his frequent world travels – scoping out the latest global energy profit developments – to stop by our HQ in Baltimore.

Here's what he told us about his "ground level" view of the real impact recent geopolitical events in Iran will have on the price of oil.

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Commodities

Thursday, April 09, 2015

Top 12 Media Myths On Crude Oil Prices / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

The upstream oil and gas industry is not a black hole. There's no mystery wrapped in an enigma here.

There are a lot of meetings with engineers, chemists and geologists. There's a constantly evolving learning curve. And then there's all the regulations and compliance. But all-in-all it's pretty straight forward, that is, until the media gets a hold of it. That's when it becomes complicated. It's as though we are getting reports from the mysteries of the deep ocean or life in the great galaxies beyond. There is so much hyperbole and unsupported guesswork that investors don't have a chance. So, in a small effort to set the record straight, let's see if we can't dispel some of the misinformation.

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Commodities

Thursday, April 09, 2015

Crude Oil Price Breaks Above One Support, but the More Important One Still Holds / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadia_Simmons

Trading position (short-term; our opinion): No positions are justified from the risk/reward perspective.

The last 2 days were quite encouraging for crude oil bulls as the black gold rallied above 2 declining resistance lines and the volume during yesterday's upswing was high. Is this enough to make the outlook bullish?

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Commodities

Wednesday, April 08, 2015

The Technical Outlook for Crude Oil Price / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Donald_W_Dony

Commodities normally go through a multi-year phase of strength and performance against the benchmark S&P 500 and then an approximate equal period of time of underperformance to the U.S. index.

Each stage of this Commodity/Stock cycle, lasts on average about 18 years. This has been the pattern for over 100 years.

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Commodities

Tuesday, April 07, 2015

Brent Crude Oil Price Looks to be Heading Higher From Here / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: MarketsToday

Brent Crude looks to have started a second leg up off the January bottom of 45.22, indicating Brent has a good chance of heading higher from here. A decisive drop below the most recent swing low at 52.61 changes the bullish scenario shown in the below daily chart.

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Commodities

Tuesday, March 24, 2015

Thoughts on The Current Crude Oil Market / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: EconMatters

Crude oil has slid into a definitive bear market starting 2H14. Since most of the oil companies (majors as well as E&Ps) based their budget, growth, and strategy trajectory on ~$50 oil price scenario even for the most conservative, the current ~ $45 WTI price environment has created a crisis situation for many oil and gas producers.

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Commodities

Friday, March 20, 2015

Beware of Pundits Playing the "Iran Oil Card" / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Money_Morning

Dr. Kent Moors writes: It's getting to be crunch time in the negotiations between the West and Iran over Tehran's nuclear program.

Despite an ill-advised attempt by U.S. senators to scuttle the talks, it's clear the negotiations in Geneva will continue.

Now, TV pundits have taken to the airwaves suggesting that an agreement would flood the market with Iranian oil.

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Commodities

Friday, March 20, 2015

What the “Yellen Effect” Ultimately Means for Crude Oil / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Money_Morning

Dr. Kent Moors writes: Janet Yellen sure has a way with the markets…

As the Fed Chair delivered her unexpectedly dovish message, the Dow bounced almost 400 points off yesterday’s lows.

Even so, that move paled in comparison to the even bigger move she triggered in oil prices.

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Commodities

Wednesday, March 18, 2015

The Truth About Iran’s Impact on Oil Prices / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Money_Morning

Kent Moors writes: It’s getting to be crunch time in the negotiations between the West and Iran over Tehran’s nuclear program.

Despite an ill-advised attempt by U.S. Senators to scuttle the talks, it’s clear the negotiations in Geneva will continue.

Now, TV pundits have taken to the airwaves suggesting that an agreement would flood the market with Iranian oil.

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Commodities

Tuesday, March 17, 2015

Why Lower Crude Oil Prices Could Drive Gold Higher / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Bob_Kirtley

We view gold as monetary asset; therefore our directional views on the yellow metal are primarily a function of our expectations of monetary policy. After being very bullish on gold in the years following the global financial crisis as the Fed pursued highly accommodative monetary policy and quantitative easing, we turned bearish on gold at the end of 2012 as the period of easing monetary policy appeared to be coming to an end. We have maintained our bearish stance as the Fed has moved towards tightening monetary policy, however the recent fall in oil prices has caused us to question our view, and whilst we remain bearish over the longer term, we now think that gold prices could bounce from current levels.

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Commodities

Thursday, March 12, 2015

Consumers Winning With Low Oil Prices, For Now / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

Lest we be too quick to forget whence we came, America is now 9-months into lower gasoline prices, which started their swoon the week of June 30, 2015 from a lofty national average just under $3.70, tumbling almost every subsequent week before bottoming and bouncing from $2.02 the end of January, according to gasbuddy.com.

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Commodities

Wednesday, March 11, 2015

Everyone Is Guessing When It Comes To Crude Oil Prices / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

Predicting and diagnosing the trajectory of oil prices has become something of a cottage industry in the past year. But along with all of the excess crude flowing from the oil patch, there is also an abundance of market indicators that while important, tend to produce a lot of noise that makes any accurate estimate nearly impossible.

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Commodities

Thursday, March 05, 2015

U.S. Soaring Crude Oil Stocks - Cushing and Gulf Coast Storage Filling Up Fast / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: EconMatters

Cushing, Oklahoma

The weekly EIA Inventory report came out today regarding the state of the oil market from the supply side, and the numbers continue to paint a bearish picture of the oil market. For example, Cushing added another one and a half million barrels to storage this past week, that`s three million added over the last two weeks to storage facilities.

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Commodities

Wednesday, March 04, 2015

How to Exploit Crude Oil's Current Low Price / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Money_Morning

Peter Krauth writes: If you've been eyeing a new gas-guzzling SUV as your next vehicle, you may want to reconsider that Prius once more. That's because today's low gas prices won't be around forever and oil prices aren't about to "tank" any time soon.

In fact, the oil price crash has created a state of "contango," a market anomaly that savvy investors can exploit. It's presenting a rare market opportunity to profit that only comes around once every few years.

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Commodities

Wednesday, March 04, 2015

Here's What Will Send Crude Oil Prices Back Up Again / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

Oil's rapid decline since August of last year has been dramatic. To listen to some commentators you would also think it is unprecedented and irreversible. Those claiming that oil will continue to fall from here and remain low for evermore, however, are flying in the face of both history and common sense. The question we should be asking ourselves is not if oil prices will recover, but when they will.

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Commodities

Thursday, February 26, 2015

Scraping The Bottom Of The WTI Crude Oil Price Barrel In 2015 / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Submissions

Anthony Alfidi writes: Energy sector investors are waiting for a bottom in oil prices.  Industrial energy users are looking for a hard price to use as a benchmark for hedging their consumption.  A generation's worth of history allows us to make an educated guess about where the bottom price of the 2015 oil market glut may appear.

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Commodities

Wednesday, February 25, 2015

This Massive “Crunch” Means Higher Crude Oil Prices / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Money_Morning

Dr. Kent Moors writes: As oil prices inch forward, there’s an inevitable consequence of lower prices building that will help them climb even higher.

It’s called the “reserve crunch.”

Faced with significantly lower oil prices, the replenishment of oil reserves is beginning to take a massive hit.

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Commodities

Tuesday, February 24, 2015

The Easy Oil Is Gone So Where Do We Look Now? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

In 2008, Canadian economist Jeff Rubin stunned the oil market with a bold prediction: With the world economy growing at 5 percent a year, oil demand would grow with it, outpacing supply, thus lifting the oil price from $147 to over $200 a barrel.

The former chief economist at CIBC World Markets was so convinced of his thesis, he wrote a book about it. "Why the World is About to Get a Whole Lot Smaller" forecast a sea change in the global economy, all driven by unsustainably high oil prices, where domestic manufacturing is reinvigorated at the expense of seaborne trade and people's choices become driven by the ever-increasing prices of fossil fuels.

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Commodities

Tuesday, February 24, 2015

Is Crude Oil Price Returning To $100 Or Dropping To $10? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

If you have been following the price of oil over the last few months, the chances are you're a little confused. On the one hand you have the likes of A. Gary Shilling who, in this Bloomberg article, loudly trumpets the prospect of oil at $10/Barrel, and on the other there is T. Boone Pickens, who, at the end of last year was predicting a return to $100 within 12-18 months. Pickens prediction has moderated somewhat as WTI and Brent crude have continued to fall, but in January he was still saying that oil would return to $70 or $80/barrel in the near future. So, who is correct?

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Commodities

Thursday, February 19, 2015

What This "Ice Level" Means to Future Oil Prices / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Money_Morning

D.R. Barton writes: You'd have to be living under a rock (and one without Internet access at that) to have missed the oil price swoon that has taken place since June.

Even after a recent bounce back from an under-$50 per barrel low, and a trough-to-peak rebound of 24% since the end of January, the technical picture does not indicate smooth sailing upward from here.

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Commodities

Thursday, February 19, 2015

Why Crude Oil Prices Must Go Up / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

It may be difficult to look beyond the current pricing environment for oil, but the depletion of low-cost reserves and the increasing inability to find major new discoveries ensures a future of expensive oil.

While analyzing the short-term trajectory of oil prices is certainly important, it obscures the fact that over the long-term, oil exploration companies may struggle to bring new sources of supply online. Ed Crooks over at the FT persuasively summarizes the predicament. Crooks says that 2014 is shaping up to be the worst year in the last six decades in terms of new oil discoveries (based on preliminary data).

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Commodities

Thursday, February 19, 2015

Crude Oil Price Double Top or Further Rally? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadia_Simmons

Trading position (short-term; our opinion): No positions are justified from the risk/reward perspective.

Although crude oil moved lower after the market's open weakened by concerns over the situation in Ukraine and Greece, the commodity rebounded as weaker U.S. dollar supported the price. As a result, light crude gained 1.08% and climbed above an important resistance, but is it as bullish as it seems at the first sight?

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Commodities

Monday, February 16, 2015

What the Bearish Analysts Missed About Crude Oil Prices / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Money_Morning

Dr. Kent Moors writes: Pundits continue to wrongly predict more pain in oil markets.

Citigroup analyst Ed Morse just came out with his most bearish forecast yet, claiming oil prices could fall to $20 a barrel. As for the recent rebound, Morse thinks it looks more like a "head-fake" than a sustainable turning point.

The market, of course, has ignored these concerns, as crude oil prices continue to climb.

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Commodities

Saturday, February 14, 2015

As Oil Prices Climb, Here’s How to Play the Rebound in Energy / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Money_Morning

Dr. Kent Moors writes: As I write this, crude oil prices continue to advance. Brent is over $61 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is pushing $53.

Both are higher than at any time since before Christmas.

Absent any major geopolitical tension, beyond the levels we’re already seeing, oil prices should begin to level off.

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Commodities

Friday, February 13, 2015

Low Crude Oil Prices Are an Act of Economic Warfare / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: The_Energy_Report

This is a wonderful time to have cash and be in the oil business, according to Bob Moriarty of 321energy.com. That's because savvy juniors can go shopping for assets being sold as "uneconomic" when oil is $40–50/barrel. But the low price won't last, he tells The Energy Report, predicting much higher oil within the year. And while that increase will cause oil stocks to rise in tandem, Moriarty reminds investors that it still pays to be selective.

The Energy Report: Bob, in January you published an article saying that the drop in oil prices could be the "straw that pops the $7-trillion derivative bubble." Can you explain the influence of oil prices on derivatives?

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Commodities

Wednesday, February 11, 2015

Citi Sees $20 Crude Oil Prices - Here’s Why They’re Wrong / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Money_Morning

Dr. Kent Moors writes: Despite a 20% jump in oil prices, some pundits continue to predict more pain.

In fact, just yesterday, Citigroup analyst Ed Morse came out with his most bearish forecast yet.

According to Morse, oil prices could fall another 60% to $20 a barrel. As for the recent rebound, Morse thinks it looks more like a “head-fake” than a sustainable turning point.

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Commodities

Tuesday, February 10, 2015

Oil's Survival Of The Fittest / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

With crude oil prices collapsing and small American oil producers faced with grim choices for survival, the Darwinian nature of commodity market cycles rears its head, dictating that only the fittest will survive -- and only the fittest of the fittest will thrive. As the herd of small companies that formed the backbone of the shale boom is culled, there emerges a new focus on junior players who are sitting on prime prospects where oil can be produced at $20 per barrel or lower and still turn a healthy profit at today's prices hovering around $45 - $52 range. The biggest winners will be those investors who are stepping into the market right now, investing in conventional oil stories.

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Commodities

Monday, February 09, 2015

Crude Oil Price Capitulation Phase / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Bob_Loukas

After a long and relentless decline, the Crude market has finally enabled us to anchor its Cycles. Up until 2 weeks ago, Crude was locked in a clear crash Cycle, which made it impossible to expect anything other than a continuation of the crash. But now that Crude has reversed with a 20% rally, its moves are clearly the start of a new intermediate term Cycle.

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Commodities

Sunday, February 08, 2015

Has Crude Oil Price Finally Bottomed? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Toby_Connor

Has oil finally bottomed? I think yes… well at least temporarily. Let me explain.

The main culprit driving the CRB and oil down over the last 7 months has been the powerful surge in the dollar.

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Commodities

Tuesday, February 03, 2015

Why Crude Oil Price Is Headed to $200 a Barrel / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Investment_U

David Fessler writes: Editorial Note: As promised last week, here is David Fessler’s rebuttal to Sean Brodrick’s piece, “3 Reasons Why Crude Will Stay Under $50 Through 2015.” If you read the title of today’s article, you might think Dave and Sean have vastly differing opinions on the direction oil is heading. But to the contrary, both agree prices will move higher... the only question is, when? To help confirm his assertions, Dave reached out to an oil industry connection who served as president of one of the largest producers in the world.

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Commodities

Thursday, January 29, 2015

Increasing Demand For Refined Products Will Increase Crude Oil Prices / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

Dan Steffens writes: In last week's article I posted a chart from the International Energy Agency'srecent Oil Market Report that shows global demand for refined products catching up to supply by the 3rd quarter of this year. My opinion is that all of the analysts who are now blaming the sharp drop in oil prices on a "glut" of supply could change their tune quickly as consumers adjust to lower fuel costs. Just as higher costs reduce demand for any commodity, lower costs will increase demand. This is especially true for a commodity that has a direct impact on standard of living, like oil does.

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Commodities

Thursday, January 29, 2015

Saudi Arabia Changes Kings, But Not its Oil Policy / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Money_Morning

Dr. Kent Moors writes: Last Friday, I appeared on CNBC’s “Closing Bell” to discuss the new Saudi King Salman and his impact on oil prices.

The interview was set up on a flight back to Pittsburgh, and took place via satellite feed almost as soon as I landed.

Now, these hastily put together appearances can be somewhat trying if the anchors are not up to speed on the material.

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Commodities

Wednesday, January 28, 2015

Crude Oil Price Bulls vs. Resistance Zone / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadia_Simmons

Trading position (short-term; our opinion): No positions are justified from the risk/reward perspective.

On Tuesday, crude oil gained 1.55% after mixed U.S. data weakened the greenback. As a result, light crude climbed above $46, but the nearest resistance still keeps gains in check. Will we see higher values of the commodity in the coming days?

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Politics

Tuesday, January 27, 2015

Oil Prices Changing The Face Of Global Geopolitics / Politics / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

In a documentary that aired recently on the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation's popular The Fifth Estate program, an allegory of Vladimir Putin was presented. The wily Russian president was described growing up in a shabby St. Petersburg apartment, where he would often corner rats.

Now, punished by low oil prices and Western sanctions against Russian incursions in Ukraine/ Crimea, Putin is himself the cornered rat. Many wonder, and fear, what he will do if conditions in Russia become increasingly desperate.

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Commodities

Thursday, January 22, 2015

Crushing The U.S. Oil and Gas Energy Export Dream / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

Exporting crude oil and natural gas from the United States are among the dumbest energy ideas of all time.

Exporting gas is dumb.

Exporting oil is dumber.

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Commodities

Thursday, January 15, 2015

What to Make of the Surge in Oil Prices / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Money_Morning

Dr. Kent Moors writes: There are a few historical figures I greatly admire, even though I have pronounced personal problems with some of their opinions.

Winston Churchill leads the list.

On November 9, 1942, Churchill uttered these famous words at a London luncheon: “Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning.”

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Commodities

Thursday, January 15, 2015

The Oil-Fueled Economic Cycle / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Harry_Dent

I’ve been focusing on this fracking and high-yield debt bubble precisely because it’s most likely to become the new trigger that the housing and subprime bubble was to the last global financial crisis in 2008/2009.

Bubbles just go on and on until they either get so extremely high that they burst of their own weight — as with the tech bubble — or more often when something triggers defaults that then cascade through the very debt markets that helped create the bubble.

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Commodities

Wednesday, January 14, 2015

5 Ways To Play The Oil Price Plunge / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

The collapse of the oil price has created losers and winners, and like every major movement in a commodity sector, the trick for investors is figuring out which side of the trade to be on. The most obvious victim of the slide in Brent and WTI prices over the last 6 months has been the major oil producers. Holders of these equities have seen price slides up to 33 percent. The question for oil company investors now is how to determine which of these companies are prepared to weather a sustained period of oil prices around $50 a barrel, or worse. Inevitably, those companies with high debt levels combined with high operating costs will be the first to get washed away. In contrast, low-leveraged companies with attractive cost structures are likely to survive. These companies will gain when the oil price comes back, and are the ones that investors should be eyeing right now.

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Commodities

Tuesday, January 13, 2015

The New Normal for Oil? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Marin_Katusa

You may have come across the word “contango” in an oil-related news report or article recently and wondered, “What’s contango?”

It isn’t the Chinese version of the tango.

Contango is a condition in a commodity market where the futures price for the commodity is higher than the current spot price. Essentially, the future price of oil is higher than what oil is worth today.

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Commodities

Saturday, January 10, 2015

Crude Oil Price Forecasts / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Investment_U

Rachel Gearhart writes: This week’s chart looks at oil prices from December 2012 through the end of 2014. It also does something quite interesting. It shows predictions out to June 2016. To create the chart, we looked at forecasts from Goldman Sachs, analysts surveyed by Bloomberg and the futures market.

As you can see in the chart, analysts and Goldman Sachs forecast a strong rebound in oil prices.

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Commodities

Saturday, January 10, 2015

Crude Oil Price Ten Year Forecast to 2025: Importers Set to Receive a $600 Billion Refund / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Andrew_Butter

This is an update on a long-term oil price forecasting model developed in early 2008 first posted in April 2009 as “The Impending Mother of All Oil Shocks” which was updated in December 2010 and posted as “Crude Oil Price Ten Year Forecast to 2020”.
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article24849.html
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article10260.html

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Commodities

Saturday, January 10, 2015

The Other Side of the “Oil Glut” / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Money_Morning

Dr. Kent Moors writes: The pundits continue to hawk the same reasons for the fall in oil prices.

These are always “spearheaded” by comments about surging global supply led by the onslaught of unconventional (tight and shale) oil production in the U.S.

Invariably, what’s missed by these “TV sages” are the pricing dynamics kicking in that virtually guarantee an increase in oil prices as we move into 2015.

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Commodities

Saturday, January 10, 2015

Euro and Oil in the Year Ahead 2015 / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: HRA_Advisory

There was enough good news in the US through December to send all the major indices in New York except NASDAQ to new all-time highs and the tech index isn’t far off. It’s all rainbows and ponies on Wall St right now which should make any sensible person a bit nervous.

As I expected oil is still in the dumps and that state of affairs should last for a while. As noted in the last issue this big a drop in oil prices is a stimulus though it’s a smaller stimulus in the US than Wall St. wants to believe. Expectations are high after the US printed 5% GDP growth in Q3. That was indeed impressive and cheaper oil should help generate good growth numbers in Q4 and Q1 2015. Things may tail off after that though.

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Commodities

Friday, January 09, 2015

The Real Cause Of Low Oil Prices: Interview With Arthur Berman / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

With all the conspiracy theories surrounding OPEC's November decision not cut production, is it really not just a case of simple economics? The U.S. shale boom has seen huge hype but the numbers speak for themselves and such overflowing optimism may have been unwarranted. When discussing harsh truths in energy, no sector is in greater need of a reality check than renewable energy.

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Commodities

Thursday, January 08, 2015

Sub $50 Crude Oil - Unbelievable Lack of Trust in the System - Video / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: David_Morgan

If the oil sector unraveled, as it is doing now, what would happen to gold and silver prices? David Morgan of Silver-Investor.com thinks, “Gold, I am pretty sure, would maintain right where it’s at, and that would be the worst case scenario, or it would go up and go up rapidly. Gold and silver may go down temporarily like we saw in 2008, but they will catch a bottom and come up. Silver in a deflationary environment has not done that well in the past. . . . Gold and silver are crisis hedges. People will say I don’t know what is happening. I’m scared. I need something I can trust. You can trust money that has been money for 5,000 years.

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Commodities

Thursday, January 08, 2015

Two Strategies to Profit as Crude Oil Price Drops Below $50 a Barrel / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: DailyGainsLetter

The energy sector was dismal in 2014 and it is looking like we could see more of the same for this year. If you are long on oil, you may want to read this, as oil prices could move lower and there are two strategies you can consider to profit from their drop: put options and futures.

Currently, we have the excessive supply overriding the declining demand as the global economy struggles along. China just announced its gross domestic product (GDP) growth would fall to seven percent this year; however, I think the real figure is likely already below seven percent, as there’s some fudging of the numbers. The eurozone could dwindle into another recession or see flat growth, and Russia is clearly heading for another recession in 2015, as long as President Putin continues to refuse to conform to global demands.

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Commodities

Thursday, January 08, 2015

Energy Players Profit from the Oil Price "Grinch" / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Money_Morning

Dr. Kent Moors writes: Getting started this year took a bit longer than usual.

When I returned home from the Bahamas, I had to hook up an entirely new system of computers and peripherals. To top it off, everything is in a new version of Windows.

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Commodities

Wednesday, January 07, 2015

Top Five Factors Affecting Oil Prices In 2015 / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

As we ring in the New Year, let's take stock of where we are at with the oil markets. 2014 proved to be a momentous one for the oil markets, having seen prices cut in half in just six months.

The big question is what oil prices will do in 2015. Oil prices are unsustainably low right now – many high-cost oil producers and oil-producing regions are currently operating in the red. That may work in the short-term, but over the medium and long-term, companies will be forced out of the market, precipitating a price rise. The big question is when they will rise, and by how much.

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Commodities

Tuesday, January 06, 2015

Next Energy Crisis As Early As 2016 / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

Low oil prices today may be setting the world up for an oil shortage as early as 2016. Today we have just 2% more crude oil supply than demand and the price of gasoline is under $2.00/gallon in Texas. If oil supply falls too far, we could see gasoline prices doubling within 18 months. For a commodity as critical to our standard of living as oil is, it only takes a small shortage to drive up the price.

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Commodities

Tuesday, January 06, 2015

This Oil Thing Is The Real Deal / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Raul_I_Meijer

Well! WTI below $50 and Brent below $53 when I start writing this. Who knows where they’ll be by the time I’m finished?! The euro down below $1.20, US stocks flirting with -2%, major European ones off -3%, Italy and Greece over -5%. Welcome to the real world, baby! Didn’t think you’d see it again so soon, did you? Welcome to the world where the Kool-Aid recovery does not reign supreme.

Not that you’re not going to hear that anymore, and 24/7 incessantly so, but there’s no recovery with these oil prices, no matter what anybody says. The damage must be gargantuan by now. Everybody’s invested in oil. Sure, lots of shorts and stuff by now, but that’s not going to do much good. Not for pensions funds, or for governments. This thing will not blow up or over softly.

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Commodities

Monday, January 05, 2015

Oil Price Plunge, When Exactly Are Falling Prices Bad? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Peter_Schiff

The sudden fall in the price of oil provides a unique opportunity to examine the widely held belief that deflation is economic poison. As many governments and central banks have vowed to fight deflation at all costs in 2015, the question could hardly be more significant.

While falling prices may strike the layman as cause for celebration, economists believe that it can kick off a nasty, and often inescapable, negative cycle, which many believe leads inevitably to a prolonged recession, or even a depression. However, these same economists acknowledge that falling energy prices may offer a stimulus, equivalent to an enormous "tax cut," particularly for lower and middle income consumers for whom energy costs represent a major portion of disposable income. They suggest that the money consumers and businesses no longer spend on gasoline and heating oil could be spent on other goods and services thereby creating demand in other areas of the economy. Even Fed Chair Janet Yellen, a staunch advocate of the economic benefits of rising consumer prices, has extolled the benefits of falling oil prices.

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Politics

Saturday, January 03, 2015

Did the U.S. and the Saudis Conspire to Push Down Oil Prices? / Politics / Crude Oil

By: Mike_Whitney

Are falling oil prices part of a US-Saudi plan to inflict economic damage on Russia, Iran and Venezuela?

Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro seems to think so. In a recent interview that appeared in Reuters, Maduro said he thought the United States and Saudi Arabia wanted to drive down oil prices “to harm Russia.”

Bolivian President Evo Morales agrees with Maduro and told journalists at RT that: “The reduction in oil prices was provoked by the US as an attack on the economies of Venezuela and Russia. In the face of such economic and political attacks, the nations must be united.”

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Commodities

Saturday, January 03, 2015

2015: Why's the Oil Price Collapsing? Answer: $8+ Trillion Carry Trade / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: DK_Matai

Most in the media are utterly clueless about what's coming in 2015. It is incumbent upon ATCA 5000 to clarify the situation as we did prior to the start of The Great Reset and The Great Unwind during 2007-2008 based on our global intelligence gathering, detailed scenario planning and mathematical modelling of capital allocation and trans-national flows:

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Commodities

Wednesday, December 31, 2014

Crude Oil Large Speculators Play Catch a Falling Knife / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Dan_Norcini

Another week – another CFTC report – more of the same, namely the large speculative category, hedge funds and other reportable traders, continue their love affair with crude oil. This, in spite of the fact that the black goo has lost 50% of its price since June of this year.

I have said now for the last few weeks and will say it once more, I am completely mystified and baffled as to how the supposedly smartest and most informed traders on the planet could have gotten this market so wrong. Not only that, but that they continue to stay wrong!

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Commodities

Monday, December 29, 2014

Did Saudis And US Collude In Dropping Crude Oil Prices? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

The oil price drop that has dominated the headlines in recent weeks has been framed almost exclusively in terms of oil market economics, with most media outlets blaming Saudi Arabia, through its OPEC Trojan horse, for driving down the price, thus causing serious damage to the world's major oil exporters – most notably Russia.

While the market explanation is partially true, it is simplistic, and fails to address key geopolitical pressure points in the Middle East.

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Commodities

Saturday, December 27, 2014

2015 Crude Oil Prices Won't Change the Emerging U.S. Dominance / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Money_Morning

Dr. Kent Moors writes: My recent meetings in Dubai highlighted the profound change that will turn the balance of power in the energy industry on its head.

For years, OPEC was the puppet master, and the United States (and the rest of the world) were the puppets. They pulled the strings, and we danced. OPEC set the price of oil. OPEC controlled the supply.

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Commodities

Wednesday, December 24, 2014

In 2015 the U.S. Will Elbow OPEC Oil to the Sidelines / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Money_Morning

Dr. Kent Moors writes: My recent meetings in Dubai highlighted the profound change that will turn the balance of power in the energy industry on its head.

For years, OPEC was the puppet master, and the U.S. (and the rest of the world) were the puppets. They pulled the strings, and we danced. OPEC set the price of oil. OPEC controlled the supply.

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Commodities

Tuesday, December 23, 2014

Make No Mistake, the Crude Oil Price Slump Is Going to Hurt the US Too / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Marin_Katusa

If you only paid attention to the mainstream media, you’d be forgiven for thinking that the US is going to get away from the collapse in oil prices scot free. According to popular belief, America is even going to be a net winner from cheaper oil prices, because they will act like a tax cut for US consumers. Or so we are told.

In reality, though, many of the jobs the US energy boom has created in the last few years are now at risk, and their loss could drag the economy into a recession.

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Commodities

Sunday, December 21, 2014

The Damage Caused By the Oil Bear Will Spread Far and Wide / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Money_Morning

Michael E. Lewitt writes: Oil prices continued to fall this week but stock markets shrugged off the disarray this continued to cause in global markets after Janet Yellen whispered soothing words in their ears after the Fed's last meeting of the year on Wednesday. Mrs. Yellen has become a "bull whisperer" – fearful of upsetting the equity market, she cloaks her words in indirection and equivocation in an effort to keep them calm as she prays for an economic lift-off that will take her institution off the hook.

Unfortunately, her patient is likely to be very disappointed, for it would take an economic miracle the likes of which hasn't been seen in this country since the years after the Second World War to deal with the mountain of existing debt and future liabilities that are going to bury us.

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Commodities

Saturday, December 20, 2014

Oil Drilling Our Way Into Oblivion / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Raul_I_Meijer

Oh, that sweet black gold won’t leave us alone, will it? West Texas Intermediate went through some speedbumps Friday, but ended over +5%, though still only at $57. Think them buyers know something we don’t? I don’t either. I see people covering lousy bets. And PPT (and that’s not the one we used to spray our crops with).

The damage done must be epic by now, throughout the financial system, but we’re not hearing much about that yet, are we? We will in time, not to worry. Everyone’s invested in oil, and big time too, and they’ve all just become party to a loss of about half of what both oil itself and oil stocks were worth just this summer.

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Commodities

Friday, December 19, 2014

Why Russia Will Halt the Ruble’s Slide and Keep Pumping Oil / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Marin_Katusa

The harsh reality is that U.S. shale fields have much more to fear from plummeting oil prices than the Russians, since their costs of production are much higher, says Marin Katusa, author of The Colder War: How the Global Energy Trade Slipped from America’s Grasp.

Russia’s ruble may have strengthened sharply Wednesday, but it’s plunge in recent days has encouraged plenty of talk about the country’s catastrophe, with some even proclaiming that the new Russia is about to go the way of the old USSR.

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Commodities

Friday, December 19, 2014

Oil Prices: A True Black Swan or the Work of Vultures? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Money_Morning

Dr. Kent Moors writes: Oil prices are struggling to stabilize in the wake of what some are calling a “black swan” event.

It refers to a theory popularized by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, a well-known risk analyst and statistician.

A black swan is an outlier, a development that fails to follow any normal pattern.

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Commodities

Thursday, December 18, 2014

Crude Oil Price: What's Next? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: EWI

Today, there is no shortage of opinions about oil.

So why should you bother reading this one?

Because 99% of oil forecasts out there are based on so-called fundamentals. The same "fundamentals" that back in June, when oil cost $107 a barrel, promised even higher prices due to:

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Commodities

Thursday, December 18, 2014

Crude Oil Price - The Doji-generated Reversal? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadia_Simmons

Trading position (short-term; our opinion): No positions are justified from the risk/reward perspective.

The price of crude oil declined yesterday once again - was the bottom reached yet?

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Commodities

Tuesday, December 16, 2014

Crude Oil Price Epic Blowout / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Bob_Loukas

The FED’s easy money has encouraged rampant energy speculation and over-investment, resulting in more than $500 billion in new loans and investments in just the past 4 years. And so long as Crude prices stayed comfortably above $90, investments made money and everyone was happy. But once energy prices started falling, the decline quickly became a negative loop-back effect because the very high levels of leverage could not tolerate the move. Whenever asset prices fall in a highly levered market, there is often a sudden lack of liquidity to absorb the speculators’ need to unwind leverage, leading to desperation and fire sales. In the case of energy, the sudden disappearance of “investors” highlights just how speculative the underlying market had become.

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Commodities

Tuesday, December 16, 2014

Stunning Crude Oil Price Crash - Black Gold Loses its Glitter / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Peter_Schiff

The stunning 40% drop in the price of oil over the past few months has scrambled global economic forecasts, changed the geo-political landscape, and has severely pressured many energy sector investments. Economists are scratching their heads to determine if the drop is good or bad for the economy or whether cheap oil will add to or decrease unemployment, or complicate the global effort to "defeat" deflation. While all of these issues merit detailed discussions, the first question to address is if the steep drop is here to stay and whether energy prices will stay low enough, for long enough, to seriously reshuffle the economic deck. Based on a variety of factors, this is not likely to happen. I believe a series of technical, industrial, and monetary factors will combine to push oil back up to, and potentially beyond, the levels that it has seen over the last few years.

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Commodities

Monday, December 15, 2014

Is The Oil Price Collapse A Monumental Black Swan? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: DK_Matai

Although the conditions for an oil price collapse have been there since 2013, yet when it arrived in the second half of 2014, it happened suddenly and then accelerated in momentum like a snowball rolling down the Alps. A truly monumental black swan with many cascading consequences for geo-strategy, financial markets and the global economy. Ten key questions discussed at a recent private lunch ATCA 5000 hosted for select chairmen and chief executives of major financial institutions, family offices and technology players:

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Commodities

Sunday, December 14, 2014

Crude Oil Price Crashing Towards $40 per Barrel / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Joseph_Russo

From speculation of international currency wars, to related geopolitical tensions, to the economics of actual supply-demand equations, there is no shortage of theories as to the reasons behind the recent tumble in crude, or if such a decline bodes ill or well for the economy of main street.

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Commodities

Friday, December 12, 2014

Petro Dollar Ponzi Madness / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Dr_Jeff_Lewis

The drop in commodity, and especially oil prices, has been spectacular. The price action has generated a wide range of commentary. Some say this is a reflection of the true state of the global economy. Like the Baltic dry goods index or electricity consumption. 

Some will say the fall in oil is deflationary - priced in as the inevitable confluence of factors ranging from demographics to lack of real economic growth manifest. Or it is more evidence of failed monetary policy. And paradoxically, another excuse to double down and go the way of Japan in pursuit of a lost decade muddle thru. 

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Commodities

Friday, December 12, 2014

Will Crude Oil Kill The Zombies? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Raul_I_Meijer

Oil producer Russia hikes rates to 10.5% as the ruble continues to plunge, while fellow producer Norway does the opposite, and cuts its rates, but also sees its currency plummet. As Greek stocks lose another 7.35% after Tuesday’s 13% loss on rumors about what the left leaning Syriza party will or will not do if it wins upcoming elections, and virtually anonymous Dubai drops 7.42%. We all know the story of the chain and its weakest link, and beware, these really still ARE global markets.

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Commodities

Thursday, December 11, 2014

Russia’s Unfazed by Falling Crude Oil Prices / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Marin_Katusa

Oil is not quite as powerful a weapon against modern-day Russia as one might think.

By arguing that the slump in oil prices will finish off Russia just like it did the Soviet Union, Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, writing in the Daily Telegraph, is forgetting how far Russia has come since those dark days.

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Commodities

Thursday, December 11, 2014

Clearing The Decks For The Crude Oil Subprime Rout / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Andrew_McKillop

The Clown Prince of Overpriced Oil Bows Out
Andy Hall, the celebrated speculator on rising oil prices and related asset values is bowing out. Not long ago, he was still loudly telling the boomers that oil prices would inevitably bounce and could soon hit $150 a barrel, partly due to US shale oil "being a dud". Hall railed at anybody, like me, or Hall's pet hate, Citigroup's Edward L. Morse, who dared to argue that $75 for a barrel of oil is a very reasonable price – in fact a lot more than today's price! US natural gas and world coal, for example, provide energy at around $25 to $30 per barrel equivalent. Is oil really worth that much more? If so, why?

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Commodities

Thursday, December 11, 2014

Crude Oil Price Tumbles After OPEC Releases 2015 Forecast / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

The demand for oil in 2015 will drop to its lowest level since 2002 because of an oversupply of crude and stagnant economies in China and Europe, according to OPEC's latest forecast. And that's just one of several sour estimates.

OPEC's monthly report said demand for the cartel's oil will fall to 28.9 million barrels per day next year, 280,000 barrels lower than its previous forecast and the lowest in 12 years. Add to that a new report from the US government's Energy Information Administration (EIA), which also cut its 2015 forecast for growth in global oil demand by 240,000 barrels per day, down to 880,000 barrels per day.

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Commodities

Thursday, December 11, 2014

Where Are Crude Oil Bulls? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadia_Simmons

Trading position (short-term; our opinion): No positions are justified from the risk/reward perspective.

Although crude oil hit a fresh multi-year low after the market's open, the commodity rebounded in the following hours supported by a weaker greenback. In this way, light crude gained 0.40%, but still remains under the previous lows. What's next?

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Commodities

Thursday, December 11, 2014

Where the Big Global Oil Players are Putting Their Money Now / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Money_Morning

Dr. Kent Moors writes: Marina and I are headed back to sunny Florida. It will be a welcome change from the brisk weather in London.

Not that I had much time to take in the scenery…

While my better half sampled the shops in Kensington High Street, I was in high level meetings in a place known as “The City.”

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Commodities

Wednesday, December 10, 2014

Norway's Falling Crude Oil Output / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

New oil projects are being scrapped in Norway amid falling production and low oil prices.

Long held up as the model for managing oil abundance, Norway has painstakingly sought to prevent the problems that occur with other natural resource-based economies, such as corruption, slow economic growth, currency appreciation, and subsequently, deindustrialization.

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Commodities

Wednesday, December 10, 2014

Crude Oil and the War Cycle 2015 and Beyond / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Clif_Droke

This year witnessed the bottom of one of several components of the 120-year cycle of inflation and deflation. The cycle to which I'm referring is the 24-year cycle. Of particular relevance is that this cycle answers to the cycle of war.

Since 1894 when the previous 120-year Grand Super Cycle bottomed and a new one began, there have been four military conflagrations at each subsequent bottom of the 24-year cycle. Most of these wars have been major in scope. The first such instance of war occurred in the years leading up to 1918, which saw the first 24-year cycle bottom of the current 120-year cycle. The 24-year cycle that bottomed that year saw the ending to the First World War. Remembering that the final "hard down" phase of the 24-year cycle approximates to almost two-and-a-half years, this represented roughly the second half of that major war, a war that involved the United States.

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Commodities

Tuesday, December 09, 2014

Crude Oil Price Sinking Or Rebounding / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadia_Simmons

Trading position (short-term; our opinion): No positions are justified from the risk/reward perspective.

On Friday, crude oil lost 1.65% as a stronger U.S. dollar and news that Saudi Arabia lowered the price of oil for buyers in the U.S. and Asia continued to weight. As a result, light crude moved lower for the fourth time in a row and closed the week at its lowest level since mid-Jul 2009.

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Commodities

Saturday, December 06, 2014

Opecology Or The Art Of Saying Nothing / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Andrew_McKillop

The Threat of $57 Oil
The recent head of the World Petroleum Council, Renato Bertani speaking from Houston in interview with Russia Today TV, December 1st,  was set an increasingly ridiculous set of questions by the energetic if dumb interviewer lady in the Moscow bureau. She asked him if Peak Oil was true and if ISIS or ISIL was pricing its stolen oil (she said $30 a barrel) at the “right price”? Would oil get really cheap before it disappeared (not cheap after it disappeared)? Is fracking sustainable and are US producers lying when they say $57 a barrel is a price they can live with? Will hydrogen-fueled cars wipe out world oil demand? Would global warming terrify us so much we woke up one day and totally renounced oil? How will OPEC stabilize and control the market and set the right oil price for everybody (she didn't suggest we ask Goldman Sachs how they do it). Time for a sucker's rally!

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Commodities

Saturday, December 06, 2014

Crude Oil Price Slump: 7% Hit for Global Hotel Stock Prices and 25% Hit for Dubai Hotel Revenues Is Predicted / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Andrew_Butter

There is an increasing adjustment to the idea that the “totally unexpected” slump in oil prices to below $70 may prevail for some time.

The model that predicted since 2011 Brent would, at some point, bottom at $67 which is just 3% below where it reached yesterday (not bad for a prediction made three years ago)... says the slump will last four years.

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Commodities

Saturday, December 06, 2014

Global Crude Oil Consumption - What Countries Have Increased or Decreased Usage Since 2009? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Mike_Shedlock

Reader David Epperson sent in some interesting charts on global oil usage that he produced from U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) data. The data is through the end of 2013.

David writes...

Hello Mish,

I was curious how much oil consumption had declined over the last few years, so I went to the EIA web site, downloaded the consumption data and produced the following charts.

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Commodities

Friday, December 05, 2014

Why OPEC Will Tolerate Cheap Crude Oil Price / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: John_Browne

Despite falling oil prices, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) voted on November 27th not to cut production in order to boost prices. The key to this decision appears to have been the attitude of Saudi Arabia, which has long been the first among equals in the coalition. Not surprisingly, the decision led to further oil price declines, and led many observers to conclude that OPEC has largely lost the ability to upwardly influence the price of petroleum. But this determination ignores the wider geopolitical considerations that may be convincing Saudi Arabia to be perfectly content, for now, with lower prices.

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Commodities

Thursday, December 04, 2014

OPEC is Playing a Losing Hand (Get Ready to Win Some Heavy Money) / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Money_Morning

Every 10 or 20 years a series of watershed events come together that change the face of the international energy picture.

The Saudi-led oil war is one of these pivotal situations.

And while others are fretting about what the OPEC production move means, I’m actually meeting with the guys who made the decision.

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Commodities

Thursday, December 04, 2014

The Myth of Lower Oil Prices Will Hit Consumers / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Money_Morning

Michael E. Lewitt writes: Media elites and Wall Street cheerleaders are greeting lower oil prices with open arms.

Investors should beware these self-appointed experts bearing gifts.

Oil prices are falling for reasons that should be surprising to nobody: supply has been rising and demand has been falling. If prolonged, which it is likely to be, the drop in oil prices is going to be destabilizing geopolitically and damaging economically.

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Commodities

Thursday, December 04, 2014

Could Falling Crude Oil Prices Spark a Financial Crisis? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

The oil and gas boom in the United States was made possible by the extensive credit afforded to drillers. Not only has financing come from company shareholders and traditional banks, but hundreds of billions of dollars have also come from junk-bond investors looking for high returns.

Junk-bond debt in energy has reached $210 billion, which is about 16 percent of the $1.3 trillion junk-bond market. That is a dramatic rise from just 4 percent that energy debt represented 10 years ago.

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Commodities

Tuesday, December 02, 2014

Commodities Year End Low / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Ed_Carlson

After waiting all year for the expected year-end low in commodities, SPSGCI should finally be there (although it probably doesn’t feel that way for oil bulls).  Last month’s low at 510 shows up as a possible low in my price forecasting model just as a monthly cycle points to a low in November (or December). The next monthly cycle high is not due until October 2015.

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Commodities

Tuesday, December 02, 2014

The Inside Story on OPEC’s Oil Price War / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Money_Morning

Dr. Kent Moors writes: My meetings here in Dubai are at the Burj Al Arab, the fabled “seven-star hotel” built like a huge ship’s sail on its own man-made island.

At center stage are some of the region’s top oil policy makers, including a rather impressive forty-one year old, His Excellency Suhali Mohamed Faraj Al-Mazrouei.

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Commodities

Monday, December 01, 2014

If Crude Oil Price Can Drop 40%, What’s Gold Going To Do? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Raul_I_Meijer

Amusing, that Swiss vote today. Or rather, the three votes. I can’t oversee why the first one, the hike in taxes for foreigners, was rejected. It would seem reasonable that everyone living in a country pays a similar amounts in taxes, but perhaps there’s another angle to the topic that I haven’t read about.

The second vote, the one on immigration limits, initiated by an eco group, looks easier to understand. In a country smack in the middle of continental Europe, which has 3 official languages and where 25% of the population are foreigners, forcing the government to limit immigration by 80% from one day to the next, from 80,000 to 16,000 people, seems to be quite simply too steep a demand.

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Commodities

Sunday, November 30, 2014

Oil Charts - Black Friday in The Energy Markets / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Rambus_Chartology

Tonight I would like to update a few oil charts I posted several weeks ago when oil was breaking out of that multi year five point triangle reversal pattern.

Editor's Note: See the links below to follow the evolution of this move in the Friday Night Energy Series.

Before we look at the bigger picture I want to show you a short term daily chart that had an interesting day. There are several things I like to look at when I see a stock that looks like it's breaking out. First, it's nice to see an increase in volume but sometimes it happens a day or to later. Secondly, it's always nice to see a gap where you were expecting a breakout. That gives you a little more confidence when your anticipating a breakout and it happens right where it should. The third thing I like to look for is a long bar that covers a lot of ground. It tells us that, in oils case, there were no more bulls left to defend the support zone, so they retreat en mass looking for the next support zone to try and defend. In a bear market all the bulls can do is put up some minor support as the big trend is down and they'll be overrun again in due time by the bears. You can clearly see this on the short term daily chart for oil below.

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Commodities

Saturday, November 29, 2014

Crude Oil Price Crash - What to Expect Next / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Looking back to 2007 (seven years ago) we have seen the price of crude oil perform incredible price swings. No matter the time frame in which we observe price when an extreme price spike takes place due to news/event, statistics show that half if not all the event driven price spike will eventually be negated in the future.

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Commodities

Saturday, November 29, 2014

OPEC Presents QE4 and Deflation / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Raul_I_Meijer

Thinking plummeting oil prices are good for the economy is a mistake. They instead, as I said only yesterday in The Price Of Oil Exposes The True State Of The Economy, point out how bad the global economy is doing. QE has been able to inflate stock prices way beyond anything remotely looking fundamental, but energy prices have now deflated instead of stocks. Something had to give at some point. Turns out, central banks weren’t able to inflate oil prices on top of everything else. Stocks and bonds are much easier to artificially inflate than commodities are.

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Commodities

Saturday, November 29, 2014

Crude Oil Price's Ups and Downs / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: John_Mauldin

Today’s Outside the Box is special, because I’m about to give you a preview of things to come at Mauldin Economics. For months now I have been saying to my partners that we need to develop a service for the professionals who read me – the financial advisors, portfolio managers, family offices… you know who you are. And I’m excited to tell you that we are very close to making this service a reality. It will be called Mauldin Pro, and it will feature global macro and geopolitical research and analysis, portfolio recommendations, monthly interviews with some of the best talent in the business, and quarterly seminars to help you improve your game.

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Commodities

Thursday, November 27, 2014

Crude Oil Asset Bubble Trouble / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Andrew_McKillop

Nothing Ikonic about the Gold / Oil Ratio
Assuming for discussion that a 15-to-1 ratio between the price of I Troy ounce of gold and 1 barrel of oil is a long-term average or “ikonic ratio”, ( http://www.zealllc.com/2005/gorex2.htm) this would apply for $2 oil and $30 gold as much as $120 oil and $1800 gold. But the asset bubbles built around oil and gold would be rather different, each time. Also, coming down and off highs for the gold price, or for the oil price, there would be major bloodshed among the related overpriced and now-irrational asset values, but in the case of oil assets this will include national budgets, national FX values and even global economic growth. Deflating an oil asset bubble has a lot more ramifying impacts than coming down from a high for gold.

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Commodities

Wednesday, November 26, 2014

A Short Tale About the Grand Manipulation of Crude Oil Prices / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Money_Morning

Dr. Kent Moors writes: Happy Thanksgiving from Dubai.

I’ll have much more to tell you about my meetings in Paris, Frankfurt, and here on the Persian Gulf coast next week.

But today I’d like to fill you in on an interesting wrinkle I’ve uncovered dealing with the ongoing saga of why oil prices are so low.

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Commodities

Tuesday, November 25, 2014

Where Is the Price of Crude Oil Price Going? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadia_Simmons

Trading position (short-term; our opinion): Long positions with a stop-loss at $72.78 are justified from the risk/reward perspective.

On Friday, crude oil gained 0.47% as Thursday's solid U.S. data and talks that OPEC may consider trimming production continued to support the commodity. As a result, light crude left the recent consolidation and closed the day above $76. Will we see a rally to $80 in the coming days?

On Friday, crude oil climbed to an intraday high of $77.83 as the combination of solid U.S. data continued to support the commodity. How did this increase affected the very short-term picture of crude oil? (charts courtesy of http://stockcharts.com).

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Commodities

Monday, November 24, 2014

The 2014 Crude Oil Price Crash Explained / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Raul_I_Meijer

This is an article by our good friend Euan Mearns at the University of Aberdeen. It was originally published here .

  • In February 2009 Phil Hart published on The Oil Drum a simple supply demand model that explained then the action in the oil price. In this post I update Phil’s model to July 2014 using monthly oil supply (crude+condensate) and price data from the Energy Information Agency (EIA).
  • This model explains how a drop in demand for oil of only 1 million barrels per day can account for the fall in price from $110 to below $80 per barrel.
  • The future price will be determined by demand, production capacity and OPEC production constraint. A further fall in demand of the order 1 Mbpd may see the price fall below $60. Conversely, at current demand, an OPEC production cut of the order 1 Mbpd may send the oil price back up towards $100. It seems that volatility has returned to the oil market.
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Commodities

Sunday, November 23, 2014

Why Crude Oil $80 Is the New Normal, Reasons Saudi Arabia Will Not “Swing” / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Andrew_Butter

Now the dust from the Shock & Awe of the 30% drop in oil prices has started to settle, two things are clear: (a) Saudi Arabia did not engineer anything (b) they don’t have a Machiavellian plan to stick one up the wildcatters in North Dakota, or the Russians...the Iranians...the Venezuelans, or even the genius from the Daily Telegraph who was bemoaning the fact that if oil prices go down it will be hard to import inflation into U.K.
Here are five good reasons why they are going to pass on the opportunity to slash their oil production by 30% so that other OPEC members can cheat and make a windfall, like they all did in 1987/8.

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Commodities

Sunday, November 23, 2014

Who’s Ready For $30 Crude Oil Price? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Raul_I_Meijer

How low can and will oil prices go, and what will the effects of those prices be? I bet you’ll have a hard time finding even just two people who have the same opinion on that. Not that it’s merely a matter of opinion, mind you, there are a great number of real life factors that come into play. It’s not an easy game.

OPEC gets together next week, and it’s a cartel divided. Many if not most of its members are suffering some kind of losses at present prices, and the obvious choice seems to be to cut output in order to raise prices again. But that’s not easy either, because at lower prices they need more output, not less, to minimize the damage. Besides, is non-OPEC producers don’t cut their output, OPWC cuts may do very little to lift prices.

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Commodities

Thursday, November 20, 2014

Iran Nuclear Negotiations, OPEC Meeting Loom For Oil Markets / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

As November draws to a close, there are two major events that could profoundly change the oil markets.

With the clock ticking, the 5 permanent members of the UN Security Council plus Germany (P5 plus 1) are negotiating down to the wire with Iran over its nuclear program. The two sides have made substantial progress, but some difficult issues remain unresolved ahead of the November 24 deadline.

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Commodities

Wednesday, November 19, 2014

Forget About Crude Oil Price Testing 2009 Low / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Austin_Galt

Oil has hit a slick recently with price sliding over 30% in the last five months. There are now calls for price to potentially  test the 2009 lows. While I think this is a bit extreme, let’s investigate the charts to see what the evidence there suggests.

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Commodities

Monday, November 17, 2014

Are Crude Oil's Bears Over? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadia_Simmons

Trading position (short-term; our opinion): Long positions with a stop-loss at $72.78 are justified from the risk/reward perspective.

Although crude oil hit a fresh four-year low on Friday, the commodity rebounded sharply as upbeat U.S. data and speculations that OPEC countries may consider cutting output supported the price. As a result, light crude closed the day above $75 and invalidated the breakdown below important support lines. Is it enough to trigger a trend reversal?

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Commodities

Sunday, November 16, 2014

Whatever Happened To $100 Crude Oil Price? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Andrew_McKillop

The Paradigm Shift
Business news provider Bloomberg, November 14, cited a Tass interview in which Vladimir Putin says that Russia is prepared for "catastrophic falls" of world oil prices and export revenues – on a day when Nymex oil market players and manipultors engineered a classic "sucker's rally" with a one-day 2.5% jump in Brent and WTI prices!  Putin is unlikely to be fooled by that rally and Russia, like China has been making very large gold purchases as an insurance policy on likely or probable major currency upheavals, in Russia's case including intensified attacks in the present "war on the ruble" to punish its support for rebels in eastern Ukraine.

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Commodities

Sunday, November 16, 2014

IEA Says Oil Supplies May Not Keep Up With Demand / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

Despite what appears to be a saturated oil market in 2014, oil producers around the world will struggle to meet rising demand over the next few decades.

In its latest annual World Energy Outlook, the International Energy Agency (IEA) warned that the current period of oil abundance may be fleeting, and in fact, without heroic levels of production increases, oil markets will grow dangerously tight in the coming years.

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Commodities

Saturday, November 15, 2014

Still Lower Prices Ahead For Crude Oil? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Sy_Harding

Crude oil prices, at a four-year low, have plunged 30% in the past six months, and it looks like they are destined to fall further.

In its monthly report, released Friday, the International Energy Agency said, “Our forecasts indicate that barring any new supply disruptions, downward price pressure could build further through the first half of 2015.”

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Commodities

Thursday, November 13, 2014

Crude Oil Price Sinking Or Rebounding / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadia_Simmons

Trading position (short-term; our opinion): Long positions with a buy limit order at $75.82 and a stop-loss at $73.47 are justified from the risk/reward perspective.

Although crude oil moved lower after the market's open, the commodity erased losses later in the day, hitting an intraday high of $78.04 as concerns over the situation in Libya supported the price. In this way, light crude gained 0.45% and bounced off the recent lows. Will we see a post double-bottom rally in the coming days?

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Commodities

Wednesday, November 12, 2014

A Billionaire Insider Just Made a Bold Bet on Crude Oil / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Money_Morning

Dr. Kent Moors writes: There was a very dramatic development in the oil market last week. It involved a well-known insider and a bullish bet on crude.

Harold Hamm, the CEO of Continental Resources Inc. (NYSE:CLR), announced that his company – a major producer in the Bakken and other U.S. unconventional oil basins – had unwound its hedge positions.

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Commodities

Saturday, November 08, 2014

What Crude Oil's Ratios Are Saying About Future Price Moves? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadia_Simmons

Without a doubt, Oct was the worst month for oil bulls since May 2012. In the previous month, the commodity lost over 11% as the combination of a stronger greenback, rising supplies and weaker demand weighted on the price. Additionally, the first days of the new month have been very negative for oil investors. After the breakdown below the psychologically important barrier of $80, oil bears pushed the price lower and light crude hit a four-year low of $75.84, breaking under long-term support lines. In this way, the commodity posted its sixth weekly loss in a row. Will light crude drop any further in the nearest future? Is it possible that crude oil's ratios will give us some interesting clues?

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Commodities

Friday, November 07, 2014

$80 Crude Oil Price is the New Normal Minimum / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: The_Energy_Report

Saudi Arabia has nothing to do with falling prices at the pump, argues Bob Moriarty. He sees falling demand as the culprit, driven by economic slowdown in China, Europe and the U.S. In this interview with The Energy Report, Moriarty explains why increased consumer spending won't solve our problems, and discusses why he's still a fan of North American energy stocks—even though he hates shale oil.

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Commodities

Friday, November 07, 2014

Why the Saudis are Fighting a Losing Battle Over Crude Oil / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Money_Morning

Dr. Kent Moors writes: For the second time in a month, Saudi Arabia has grabbed the headlines in the oil markets. The kingdom is cutting prices again in its global oil feud.

In its latest version, Saudi Aramco (the national oil company) has restored an earlier price cut to Asia, but reduced its price to U.S customers.

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Commodities

Tuesday, November 04, 2014

Why We Need Overpriced Oil / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Andrew_McKillop

High on High Priced Oil
Royal Dutch Shell's new chairman Chad Hallyday says that falling oil prices are the top of his agenda and like other “historic majors” such as ConocoPhillips and ENI, Shell gets a painful bottom line hit from lower prices. Reported by the 'Financial Times', October 31, Hallyday says that each $10 fall in the barrel price means $3 billion less earnings a year and a prolonged period of Brent prices around $85 a barrel would translate to $8 bn-a-year of reduced profits for Shell. Nevertheless Hallyday is not only a former BofA banking chief, but also co-chaired the UN's high level group on sustainable energy, which in 2011 pledged a doubling of renewable energy in world energy by 2030. The recent doomster grandstanding by UN Secretary General Ban ki-Moon to “prevent planetary disaster from global warming” calls for the total elimination of all fossil fuels “before the end of the century”.

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Politics

Tuesday, November 04, 2014

Lower Crude Oil Prices Carry Geopolitical Consequences / Politics / Crude Oil

By: STRATFOR

Since mid-June, the price of Brent crude oil has fallen by nearly 25 percent -- going from a high of $115 to about $87 a barrel -- and structural factors are causing concern among global oil producers that oil prices will remain near current levels through at least the end of 2015. This concern has caused several investment banks to slash their oil price outlooks for the immediate future. Stratfor believes that oil supplies will stay high as energy production in North America increases and OPEC countries remain hesitant or unable to cut production significantly. Moreover, in the short term, the Chinese economic slowdown and stagnant European economy will limit the potential for growth in oil demand. These factors could make it harder for global oil prices to rebound to their previous levels.

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Commodities

Tuesday, October 28, 2014

Total War over the Petrodollar / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Marin_Katusa

The conspiracy theories surrounding the death of Total SA’s chief executive, Christophe de Margerie, started the second the news broke of his death. Under mysterious circumstances in Moscow, his private jet collided with a snowplow just after midnight. De Margerie was the CEO of Total, France’s largest oil company.

He’d just attended a private meeting with Russian Prime Minister Medvedev, at a time when the West’s relationship with Russia is fraught, to say the least.

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Commodities

Tuesday, October 28, 2014

Crude Oil Price Sinking Or Rebounding / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadia_Simmons

Trading position (short-term; our opinion): No positions.

On Friday, crude oil lost 0.68% as concerns over a global oversupply continued to weigh. Additionally, soft U.S. housing data pushed the commodity below $82 per barrel. Will we see another test of the strength of the psychologically important level of $80?

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Commodities

Friday, October 24, 2014

Saudi Move to Cut Oil Prices Is Now Russia's Biggest Economic Threat / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Money_Morning

As I discussed recently (Why the Saudis Are Cutting Oil Prices), Saudi Arabia has made headlines by cutting oil prices, not production.

It seems the Saudis are more interested in grabbing market share than in attending to the present state of the market.

That move seems calculated to undercut the effect the United States has on global oil markets, even though that effect is indirect.

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Commodities

Wednesday, October 22, 2014

Crude Oil Price Hitting Bottom / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Submissions

Bob Loukas writes: In the past, we’ve discussed at length the structural problems facing Crude. So the pressure the energy markets are under, both from the demand and supply sides, should come as no surprise. This double whammy to the Crude market is not likely to be resolved overnight; demand-supply issues require time to work through a market.

Through hydraulic fracking and a massive influx of investment capital, the US has again become a major oil producer. But it’s the speed with which new supply from the US has come on line that has taken the market by surprise and rocked prices.

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Commodities

Wednesday, October 22, 2014

Low Crude Oil Prices Hurting U.S. Shale Operations / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

Slumping oil prices are putting pressure on U.S. drillers.

The number of active rigs drilling for oil and gas fell by their most in two months, according to the latest data from oil services firm Baker Hughes. There were 19 oil rigs that were removed from operation as of Oct. 17, compared to the prior week. There are now 1,590 active oil rigs, the lowest level in six weeks.
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Currencies

Saturday, October 18, 2014

Crude Oil Price Blues (Read: Dangers) for Some / Currencies / Crude Oil

By: Steve_H_Hanke

As the price of crude oil continues its downward tumble towards $80 per barrel, I am reminded of a similar scenario from near the end of the Cold War in the 1980s. When Saudi Arabia announced in 1985 that protecting oil prices was no longer its main priority, oil production surged and prices fell off a cliff, briefly plunging below $10 per barrel, as I had correctly predicted.

Lower prices delivered a fatal blow to the Soviet economy, which ended up seeing $20 billion per year in oil revenues evaporate. The resulting fiscal shortfalls proved to be a dagger in the heart of the U.S.S.R.

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Politics

Saturday, October 18, 2014

Why OPEC Has Declared an Oil War on Russia / Politics / Crude Oil

By: Money_Morning

Dr. Kent Moors writes: As I discussed recently (A Calculated Saudi Move Aimed at America), Saudi Arabia has grabbed the headlines by cutting oil prices, not production.

It seems the Saudis are more interested in grabbing market share than in attending to the present state of the market.

That move seems calculated to undercut the effect the U.S. has on global oil markets, even though that effect is indirect.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Commodities

Friday, October 17, 2014

When... Not if... Crude Oil Price Drops Below $70 / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Andrew_Butter

Since mid 2010 the oil industry was getting used to Brent averaging around $110. From then to mid 2014 share prices of Halliburton (HAL) Schlumberger (SLB), Hercules (HERO), Transocean (RIG) etc, went up by average 250%. By way of a benchmark for the collective enthusiasm in the idea of the irreversibility of Peak Oil, MODU (jack-up drilling rigs) utilization and day rates climbed into the champagne-all-round arena. According to IHS, a consultancy, there are 118 new ones being built so as to complement the current worldwide fleet of 550. About 40% of those are in China thanks in part to the 5% you used to be able to put down grace of the beneficence of the Bank of Chairman Mao...which incidentally has the smell of the dry bulk carrier enthusiasm seven years ago, also largely financed by the Bank of Chairman Mao.

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Commodities

Thursday, October 16, 2014

Crude Oil Prices Continue to Define Geopolitics / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: STRATFOR

Editor's Note: Oil prices dropped steeply Oct. 14, with crude oil futures falling 4.6 percent to $81.84 per barrel -- the biggest decrease in more than two years. Brent crude dropped by more than $4 a barrel at one stage in the day, dipping below $85 for the first time since 2010. While these are relatively substantial drops, they are just one part of a continuing trend Stratfor has been tracking over the past few months. Factors behind the slump include weak demand, a surfeit of supply and the fact that many large Middle Eastern producers are reluctant to reduce their output.

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Commodities

Wednesday, October 15, 2014

King Coal Strikes Back at the Obama Administration / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Money_Morning

Dr. Kent Moors writes: The latest salvo in the “Coal Wars” comes from the American Coalition for Clean Coal Electricity (ACCCE), and it’s aimed squarely at the Obama Administration.

Of course, the ACCCE isn’t exactly an impartial observer. In fact, you might say it has one huge dog in this fight.

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Commodities

Tuesday, October 14, 2014

How To Blow Up OPEC In 3 Easy Steps / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Raul_I_Meijer

It’s easily been longer than I care to remember that I first wrote it was only a matter of time before individual OPEC members would throw out the cartel’s agreements on prices and production, and just produce at full force and capacity, and then some. We may have seen that time arrive.

The underlying reason I first talked about it was two-fold. First: the economic crisis, which could lead to one thing only: less global demand. And second: the fast increasing wealth and population numbers in oil-producing nations which, as initially defined by Jeffrey Brown and Sam Foucher in the Export Land Model, has proven to be a much bigger factor in OPEC economies than people realized.

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Commodities

Saturday, October 11, 2014

Why Overpriced Crude Oil Failed / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Andrew_McKillop

Forget the Secret Deals
US-Saudi petrodollar recycling or the "Secret Deal" between the USA and Saudi Arabia dating from the early 1970s and heavily associated with Richard Nixon, Henry Kissinger, the US Treasury  Dept and US Federal Reserve was anything but a secret deal, and public domain information on this system is easily available. Ultra basically, petrodollar recycling worked best with high oil prices. The long slump of oil prices through 1986-2002, was basically engineered, at its beginnings, by Saudi Arabia with full US support to deny revenues to Khomenei's Iran in its 1980-88 war against Saddam Hussein's Iraq, seen by the Sunni-dominated Gulf States as holding back the Islamic revolutionary Shia of Iran. Saudi Arabia certainly did not profit from low oil prices and after the period of 1974-86, it consistently reduced its deposits of "windfall gain" petrodollars in the US Fed Reserve system.

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Commodities

Friday, October 10, 2014

Crude Oil Price War - A Calculated Saudi Move Aimed At America / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Money_Morning

Dr. Kent Moors writes: In 280-279 B.C., the Epirian King Pyrrhus defeated the Romans in two consecutive battles. But he suffered such a large number of casualties that his army could no longer carry on the fight.

Ever since then, the term “Pyrrhic victory” has become synonymous with winning at too high a cost.

These days some are beginning to wonder if the Saudis are marching down the same road.

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Commodities

Friday, October 03, 2014

The Best Way to Play Crude Oil Right Now / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Money_Morning

Dr. Kent Moors writes: As I’ve been noting for some time now, making money in the energy sector is no longer pegged to higher crude oil prices.

In today’s environment, picking winning oil stocks is more about where a company drills, how it manages its assets and operations, as well as the broader flow of supply and demand.

In this case, it’s all about selecting the right target – companies that are built to weather the inevitable dips in the price of crude.

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Commodities

Friday, September 26, 2014

Why the Pundits are Wrong About Crude Oil Prices / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Money_Morning

Dr. Kent Moors writes: Several pundits attributed yesterday’s spike in oil prices to the recognition that the fight against ISIS in Iraq-Syria will be a long one.

As usual, the 30-second TV wonders missed the boat.

Of course, the ongoing chaos in the Middle East is certainly a factor. To the extent that oil traders begin to calculate its impact into their risk models, there will be an effect.

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Commodities

Wednesday, September 24, 2014

All Eyes on Kenya: The Next Big Oil Exporter / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

Not even the specter of a spillover of Islamic extremism from Somalia can dampen the atmosphere in Kenya, where commercial oil production is expected to begin in 2016 and discovery after discovery has made this the hottest and fastest-paced hydrocarbon scene on the continent. 

When it comes to new oil and gas frontiers, today it’s all about Africa. And more specifically, it’s all about the eastern coast, with Kenya the clear darling--not just because it’s outpacing neighboring Uganda by leaps and bounds, but also because despite some political instability hiccups and the threat of militant al-Shabaab, it’s still one of the safest venues in the region.

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Commodities

Wednesday, September 24, 2014

How Falling Oil Prices Could Trigger an "Unpredictable and Dangerous Mess" / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Money_Morning

Dr. Kent Moors writes: The dive in crude oil prices continued yesterday as yet another selloff targeted the energy sector for a particularly big hit.

Of course, this too shall pass.

The crude oil markets are oversold and a rebalancing will bring prices back up a bit over the near term.

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Commodities

Sunday, September 14, 2014

Two Strikes Against Light Crude Oil Prices / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Donald_W_Dony

Following the August 26, 2014 Market Minute titled "WTIC prices break down", Light crude oil prices has fallen 5.9% since late August.

Abundant supply from the U.S. and the Middle East plus a rising U.S. dollar has sent oil prices down to the first support level at $92.

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Commodities

Thursday, September 11, 2014

Gold, Crude Oil and U.S Dollar Link Intensifies / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadia_Simmons

On Monday, the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco published a report, which indicated that central bank is growing closer to raise interest rates. As a result, the US Dollar Index, which tracks the performance of the greenback against a basket of six other major currencies, climbed to a 14-month high. Since then, ongoing expectations that U.S. interest rates will be rise sooner rather than later have been supportive for the U.S. dollar, making crude oil and gold more expensive for holders of other currencies.

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Commodities

Wednesday, September 10, 2014

Russia And Iran Put Oil-For-Goods Deals Into Motion / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: GoldCore

Russia-Iran Oil-for-Goods Contracts

Representatives of the Russian and Iranian governments met in Tehran yesterday for the 11th meeting of the Iran-Russian Trade Council, where details of a ground breaking oil-for-goods swap between the two heavily sanctioned countries were revealed.

With both countries now sanctioned by the West, Russia and Iran have been in extensive negotiations on how to facilitate Iranian oil exports without breaching the UN Security Council nuclear deal that was agreed between Iran, Germany and the five UN Council permanent last January.

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Commodities

Wednesday, September 10, 2014

Crude Oil Price Downtrend Continues / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Gregor_Horvat

Crude Oil fell to a new low on Monday so we see prices now already in fifth wave and labeled wave (iv) as a flat correction. As such price may go even lower by the end of the week, to 90.00 area where we will be looking for some evidences of a low as this psychological level may turn into a technical support.
this bearish move was already anticipated on our past updates

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Commodities

Thursday, September 04, 2014

Overpriced Oil – The Fundamental Facts / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Andrew_McKillop

Andy Hall Takes a Bet
Sometimes dubbed the Billionaire Better who always gets things right, Andy Hall has come out swinging. Bloomberg, September 3, reports Hall as saying US shale oil (and even shale gas) “are a dud” and will play down and out much faster than most people think. Hall says there is no way that either US or world oil prices can erode down to around $75 a barrel. He says barrel prices will be closer to $150 within 5 years, by at latest 2019. Hall is buying long-dated oil futures contracts to as far out as 2019 on that basis

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Commodities

Thursday, September 04, 2014

Stronger U.S. Dollar Implications for Crude Oil Price / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadia_Simmons

Trading position (short-term; our opinion): In our opinion no positions are justified from the risk/reward perspective.

On Tuesday, crude oil lost 2.70% as the combination of disappointing Chinese data and stronger U.S. dollar weighed on the price. Because of these circumstances, the commodity bounced down the medium-term resistance zone and approached the recent lows. Will they withstand the selling pressure?

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Commodities

Tuesday, September 02, 2014

Why Brent Crude Oil Prices Won’t Fall Below $100 a Barrel / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Submissions

Chad Shoop writes: All the talk about oil these days would lead you to suspect that we are overflowing in abundance, with enough of the black gold lying around the U.S. to significantly reduce our dependence on Middle Eastern and European oil. This happy talk has even sparked discussion of oil independence for Americans — but this couldn’t be farther from the truth. Given the rising cost of producing oil, oil prices won’t fall below $100 a barrel — at least not for any significant length of time.

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Commodities

Friday, August 22, 2014

How the “Uncertainty Factor” Drives Crude Oil Prices / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Money_Morning

Dr. Kent Moors writes: Despite a world of geopolitical tension, oil prices have remained steady.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) has been holding in the mid $90′s, while Brent continues to trade in the low $100 range.

This trading dynamic tells us two things…

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Commodities

Monday, August 18, 2014

Crude Oil Price Decline – To What Price? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Andrew_McKillop

Triple Digit Prices are Not Forever
In what is only superficially amazing at a time when Islamic insurgency, including Boko Haram in Nigeria and ISIS in Iraq may be threatening the state, civil society and the oil sector in major exporter countries, oil prices are declining quite rapidly. The “magic three digit” price level for oil - $100 a barrel  come rain or shine – has been seriously eroded for US WTI and may soon also be attacked for Brent. The major reason for this decline is sharper than expected and forecast decline in leading economic indicators for many large importer countries, including Japan and the EU28. Monthly oil import demand outturns for China and India are variable, but have suffered major contractions relative to previaling rates before 2010.

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Commodities

Thursday, August 14, 2014

The Greatest Investment Theme of This Decade / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: DailyWealth

Matt Badiali writes: It's not too late to grab a stake in the U.S. oil boom...

Yesterday, I shared my experience at the U.S. EIA 2014 Energy Conference last month in Washington D.C. In short, some of the smartest people in the industry, like Daniel Yergin, are projecting U.S. oil production could nearly double from today's levels within the next 20 years.

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Commodities

Thursday, August 14, 2014

Crude Oil Up and Down. Who Will Take Control? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadia_Simmons

Trading position (short-term; our opinion): In our opinion no positions are justified from the risk/reward perspective.

On Tuesday, crude oil lost 0.68% as the bearish report from the International Energy Agency and waning concerns over Iraq supply disruptions weighed on the price. As a result, light crude re-tested the strength of the support zone and approached the recent lows. Will we see a breakthrough in the next few days?

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Commodities

Wednesday, August 13, 2014

Oil Market QE Premium Is Coming out of Price / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: EconMatters

The Fed Giveth & Taketh with Policy

The Fed may pat themselves on the back for creating the ‘wealth effect’ in stocks, and hope like heck that some of this wealth trickled down and through the rest of the economy, but it is quite evident what the Fed giveth on one hand they taketh away on the other hand in terms of higher oil and commodities prices like gasoline prices.

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Commodities

Wednesday, August 06, 2014

These Events Could Unhinge Two Global Hotspots And Send Crude Oil Price Higher / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Money_Morning

Kent Moors writes: Over the last 36 hours, two events have occurred that may indicate the situation in two global hotspots is getting worse.

Both have the potential to have a significant impact on energy prices in the future.

First, the Islamic State (IS), the terrorist group formerly known as the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL), attacked the Mosul Dam.

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Commodities

Tuesday, August 05, 2014

Crude Oil Is the New Gold Standard / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Money_Morning

Dr. Kent Moors writes: Today I want to tell you a story about energy - especially crude oil.

It involves my run in with the steak bandit...

Just stay with me here...

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Commodities

Tuesday, August 05, 2014

The Bigger Oil Story Behind the Headlines / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

Michael Levi writes: While we fixate on sexy headlines about Chinese military threats in the South China Sea, for instance, or Washington 'lifting the ban' on crude oil exports, we miss the bigger stories -- and we miss the reality. China's relentless resource quest has the greatest impact on trading prices, which may not make for headline news, but is a very important reality, while the stories about the US lifting the crude oil ban were just wrong.

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Commodities

Tuesday, August 05, 2014

Apocalypse Now For Crude Oil Prices – When Isis Takes Baghdad / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Andrew_McKillop

Dangerously Converging Contexts
As of now we can at least theoretically scenarize a world oil shock at least equal to the so-called 'Arab oil embargo' of 1973-74. The chronology shows that Arab oil exporters joined by the Shah's Iran, from October 1973 cut their total supply by 5% a month to obtain their political-economic demand for much higher prices “for as long as needed”. By January-February 1974 they had started delaying or freezing the monthly 5% cuts in supply. By March when Israel withdrew the last of it soldiers from the Egyptian side of the Suez Canal the embargo started winding down.

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Commodities

Friday, August 01, 2014

Oil Price Major Shift Afoot / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Raul_I_Meijer

Oil prices are dropping as Exxon announces a -5.7% plunge in output. And as Shell, as I said yesterday, can think of nothing better to do with its remaining funds than to spend it on share buybacks and dividends. Perhaps shareholders should take the money and run. Because what sort of future can they expect for a company that acts like that?

Western oil companies have tens of billions invested in Russian projects they may or may not have access to anymore now the sanctions are coming into effect. The scourge of insecurity. Never good for industry, never good for markets. Prices will rise again, and a lot, just ask Putin, but that doesn’t take away the insecurity over Big Oil’s chances of – even medium term – survival.

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Commodities

Friday, August 01, 2014

July 31 An Amusing Day For Overpriced Crude Oil / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Andrew_McKillop

Suddenly There Is Ample Supply
Newswires and energy sites on the Internet desperately sought rational explanations of why oil could not only flirt with the “100 dollar benchmark” but (OMG!) fall well below it in just a few days of so-called “hectic trading”. We can now await the pro domo explanation from Goldman Sachs telling us this is only a “temporary downward blip”. Keep calm and carry on. The natural price is well above $100 a barrel.

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Politics

Tuesday, July 29, 2014

Alaskans need to stand up for free market, reject flawed oil tax 'reform' / Politics / Crude Oil

By: Stephen_Merrill

By listening to this summer’s political commercials, Alaskans could rejoice that a job-friendly atmosphere has been restored to the Alaska oil slope due to the end of the ACES pricing structure now replaced by the pre-ACES lower tax rates. So, Vote No on Ballot Measure 1 to create Alaska jobs!

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Commodities

Monday, July 28, 2014

Has Crude Oil Price Recovery Ended? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Gregor_Horvat

Crude Oil rallied away from 98.64 which has been expected because of a completed five wave decline, but it seems that recovery has ended now, close to 61.8% retracement level after three waves up. Notice that crude oil also moved slightly beneath wave (b) swing which suggests a completed rally. Therefore, traders need to be aware of a bearish impulse and continuation back to 98.65.

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Commodities

Saturday, July 26, 2014

Two Buy Signals in Crude Oil / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Investment_U

Christopher Rowe writes: To help us analyze this chart of light, sweet crude oil, let’s use two momentum indicators:

  • The MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicator
  • The RSI (Relative Strength Index – not to be confused with “relative strength”).
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Commodities

Wednesday, July 23, 2014

Crude Oil Price Bearish Continuation / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Gregor_Horvat

Crude Oil is rallying away from 98.64 which has been expected because of a completed five wave decline, but now recovery can already be counted in three legs that reached levels around 61.8% Fibonacci level, which means that recovery can be at the end. In fact, prices turned nicely down yesterday, slightly beneath the corrective channel that is pointing to lower prices. Ideally we will see a bearish continuation back to 98.60 in days ahead.

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Commodities

Thursday, July 17, 2014

Oil Path Signals Wrong Way For World Energy / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Andrew_McKillop

Energy Worlds Apart
Recent publication of this year's BP Statistical Review of World Energy illustrates several mega trends in world oil and for energy in general. The Review provides time-series charts where the key change decade of 2003-2013 is covered. These underline how the primacy of oil is threatened. To be sure, wrong way data and false flag trends exist – for example and in particular that China and the US, the world's two biggest economies and two biggest oil importers, now import about a half of the oil they each consume and use.

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Commodities

Sunday, July 13, 2014

Reality Blows Crude Oil Price Seriously Off Course / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Andrew_McKillop

Friday the 13th For Oil Came On Friday 11th July
In classic fashion market operators and manipulators gave a false signal to hopeful speculators, by nudging up oil prices on the Nymex, ICE and other oil markets, on Thursday 10th July. Then the market riggers crushed them, Friday 11th, with a 2.2% one-day crash of prices. To be sure we have to wait for Monday 15th trades to see if the new canonical oil price of $100-per-barrel can be set back in place like Humpty Dumpty, and will hold.

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Commodities

Friday, July 11, 2014

Black Gold: Oil Option Trade Setup – Will Oil Bounce? Who Cares! / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Oil futures were on the tip of every political and financial pundits’ tongues less than a month ago as geopolitical tensions in Iraq heated up. Fast forward to today, and tensions in the Middle East have intensified further. However, since June 25th oil prices have been falling fast.

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Commodities

Friday, July 11, 2014

Crude Oil Price Time for Recovery? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadia_Simmons

On Thursday, crude oil gained 0.94% as profit taking and upbeat U.S. jobless claims data supported the price. As a result, the commodity bounced off a very important support zone and came back above $102 per barrel. Does it mean that the bottom of the recent correction is in?

Although crude oil hit a 2-month low of $101.55, declining to slightly below the June low, the commodity reversed and rebounded as traders who had bet on falling prices made purchases yesterday to close those positions.

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Commodities

Wednesday, July 09, 2014

5 Countries Most Plagued by Crude Oil Theft / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

Nigeria

As much as 400,000 barrels of oil a day are stolen in Nigeria. This equates to losses of $1.7 billion a month for Africa's new largest economy. This represents 7.7 percent of its GDP vanishing, or more than the country spends on education and healthcare. These numbers paint a harsh picture about the inability of the Nigerian government, and the multinational oil companies in the Niger Delta, to do anything about this rampant theft.

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Commodities

Tuesday, July 08, 2014

Are We Running Out of Oil? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Money_Morning

Dr. Kent Moors writes: For many years, a number of industry experts have been sounding the alarm that America, and the world, are about to run out of oil.

This is nothing new. In 1914, the Bureau of Mines said that U.S. oil reserves would be exhausted by 1924. The Interior Department said global reserves would last 13 years… and that was in 1939. In 1956, Shell Oil geoscientist Marion King Hubbert advanced his peak oil theory, which said that world oil production had peaked and would begin to decline until all of the oil was gone.

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Commodities

Monday, July 07, 2014

Bearish Reversal In Play For Crude Oil Price? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Gregor_Horvat

Crude Oil has turned bearish in the last two weeks and is now already testing the trendline connected from the start of January. As such, a three wave rally up in wave 2) can be finished, which means that bearish trend may even accelerate in the next couple of weeks. We however, still need a decisive break of that line as well as a daily close beneath wave B level; 101.60 support.

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Commodities

Friday, July 04, 2014

A Crude Interruption? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Tony_Caldaro

In the world of financial assets everything appears to be calm. Risk is on, CDS premiums and the VIX near all time lows, short/long term interest rates cheap, and central banks continue to flood the markets with liquidity. So how could a “black swan” arise from the ashes to disrupt the world’s economy?

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Commodities

Thursday, July 03, 2014

Crude Oil Price Heading North or South? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadia_Simmons

On Tuesday, crude oil lost 0.30% as the combination of Chinese and U.S. data weighed on the price. Because of these numbers, light crude declined temporarily below its nearest support zone and closed the day slightly above it for the second day in a row. Will we see a breakdown or a rebound from here?

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Commodities

Tuesday, July 01, 2014

Crude Oil Price Breakdown or Trap? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadia_Simmons

Although crude oil moved little higher on Friday, hitting an intraday high of $106.19, the commodity reversed and posted its second weekly loss in three weeks as the immediate threat of losing Iraqi oil supply due to violence in the country faded. As a result, light crude closed the week below the medium-term support. Will it trigger further deterioration?

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Commodities

Sunday, June 29, 2014

What’s Driving America’s Oil Boom (This Could Make You a Bundle) / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Money_Morning

The amount of oil produced in the U.S. has skyrocketed more than 50% over the last six years.

Now small towns all across the U.S. are filling with new-found wealth… and a new breed of millionaires.

Who’s leading the way? It certainly isn’t the big major oil companies.

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Commodities

Saturday, June 28, 2014

Is Crude Oil Price Breaking Out? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Investment_U

Christopher Rowe writes: Light sweet crude oil has broken out of an ascending triangle with a minimum price target close to $113.

The ascending triangle is a pattern that’s formed when an investment vehicle (in this case, light sweet crude) makes even highs and higher lows.

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Commodities

Saturday, June 28, 2014

How Long Does The OPEC Party Keep Going? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Andrew_McKillop

The 30 Mbd Limit
Temporarily reprieved by Syria, Libya and Iraq oil prices can be kept from falling, or stoked higher by Goldman Sachs and the dwindling band of “oil and energy market maker banks”. These include the now not-so-Teflon market rigging fraudsters Barclays, Deutsche Bank, SocGen, JP Morgan and a small number of others, like BNP Paribas. If you want to know why oil prices are high – ask them.

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Commodities

Tuesday, June 24, 2014

Crude Oil Price Turns Sharply Lower / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Gregor_Horvat

Crude oil has turned sharply lower yesterday, from a new high. A decline on 15min chart can be counted as an impulse, so we think that top has been reached and that price will continue to the south. With that said, keep an eye on any three wave rally back to 106.20-106.40 from where downtrend could resume. 107.34 is now short-term critical resistance, as long this one holds we will be looking down.

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Commodities

Monday, June 23, 2014

Crude Oil Price Higher Short-Term, Lower Longer-Term? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadia_Simmons

On Friday, crude oil gained 0.54% as ongoing worries over the potential of supply disruptions from Iraq continued to weigh on the price. As a result, light crude climbed above the resistance line, invalidating earlier breakdown. Will this bullish factor trigger further improvement in the short term?

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Commodities

Friday, June 20, 2014

WTI Crude Oil Price on the Move $112 Next Stop / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Chris_Vermeulen

The energy sector has surged during the last two months which can be seen by looking at the XLE Energy Select Sector Fund. If crude oil continues to climb to the $112 level, XLE will likely continue to rally for another few days or possibly week as energy stocks are considered a leveraged way to play energy price movements.

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Commodities

Thursday, June 19, 2014

The Oil Crisis Price Spike Is Just Getting Started / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Money_Morning

Dr. Kent Moors writes: First there was the crisis in Ukraine. Then, seemingly out of nowhere, Iraq exploded into chaos again.

Both testify to one simple truth about today's energy sector: Geopolitical factors are the quintessential wild cards when it comes to estimating energy prices.

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Commodities

Thursday, June 19, 2014

Crude Oil Price Breakdown or Trap? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadia_Simmons

On Tuesday, the price of crude oil wobbled between gains and losses throughout the session as mixed data and profit taking weighed on investors' sentiment. As a result, light crude reversed after an increase to the resistance zone and declined below an important medium-term support line. Will this event be strong enough to trigger a sizable correction?

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Commodities

Thursday, June 19, 2014

Iraq Wake Up Call For Oil Is A Yawn / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Andrew_McKillop

Forward Looking Statements
The IEA's energy scenarios and forecasts for the next 21 years, to 2035, heavily feature long-term increases of oil supply from Iraq to help meet “soaring oil demand”, but the IEA's Factsheet for Oil Supply in Iraq, published 13 June, allows and enables some doubt. In particular this concerns the Agency's previous forecasts of “ever growing Iraqi supply”. In turn, the Agency's continued forecasting of world oil demand increasing by 12 - 15 million barrels a day by 2035 (from the IEA's estimate for early 2014 of about 90 Mbd) should be compared with the actual status and forward trends of oil in world energy. Overall, this raises plenty of doubt on the real need for increasing Iraqi oil supply.

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Commodities

Wednesday, June 18, 2014

Crude Oil Prices Spike as Iraq Chaos Takes Hold / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Money_Morning

Dr. Kent Moors writes: First there was the crisis in Ukraine. Then seemingly out of nowhere, Iraq exploded into chaos again.

Both testify to one simple truth about today’s energy sector: Geopolitical factors are the quintessential wild cards when it comes to estimating energy prices.

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Commodities

Sunday, June 15, 2014

We Are So Not Prepared For Another Crude Oil Price Shock / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: John_Rubino

In one sense, energy doesn’t matter all that much to what’s coming. Once debt reaches a certain level, oil can be $10 a barrel or $200, and either way we’re in trouble.

But the cost of energy can still play a role in the timing and shape of the next financial crisis. The housing/derivatives bubble of 2006 -2008, for instance, might have gone on a while longer if oil hadn’t spiked to $140/bbl in 2007. And the subsequent recovery was probably expedited by oil plunging to $40 in 2008.

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Commodities

Thursday, June 12, 2014

The World's Five Most Important Oil Fields / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

Much has been made about the role that hydraulic fracturing – or fracking -- has played in revolutionizing the energy landscape, unlocking vast new reserves of oil trapped in shale rock. This "tight oil" is pouring into the global pool of oil supplies at a crucial time, preventing oil prices from spiking in an age of high demand and geopolitical turmoil.

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Commodities

Sunday, June 08, 2014

Crude Oil Price Turns Bearish / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Gregor_Horvat

Crude Oil has turned bearish recently, away from 104.00-104.50 resistance where we were looking for a wave (d) high. Notice that market turned nicely down, through the support channel line that confirms the bearish view for a three wave drop into wave (e) back to 100-101 area. Once those levels will be seen, we will turn bullish as big triangle since March could then be near completion. At the moment we see wave c) down in progress so triangle can already be in final stages.

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Commodities

Friday, June 06, 2014

Crude Oil Prices, Opec And Other Peak Oil Stories / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Andrew_McKillop

When In Doubt, Worry About Oil
One of the starkest oil worry pot pourri presentations – ruthlessly mingling fact, fiction and fantasy (but pretending its all fact) – can be had here http://energypolicy.columbia.edu...

Steve Kopits is the Managing Director of a known and still-in-business oil and energy forecasting firm, Douglas-Westwood. Both Kopits and D-W would appear to be (still) employable, but for how much longer we can only guess. The Kopits presentation is showcased by the Dublin sustainable economy and development firm FEASTA, with an even more ghastly presentation by David Knight called 'Peak Oil and Climate Change – Two Sides of the Same Coin?' FEASTA says that, as it perceives things,  Global Warming and Peak Oil are the two largest threats to the planet, human life and civilization.

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Commodities

Tuesday, June 03, 2014

Canadian Law Makes It Cheaper To Prevent Oil Sands Leaks Than Clean Them Up / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

As the Canadian government pushes a new law rendering pipeline companies liable for all damages from leaks and spills, the only friend to both sides in this polarized world of dirty oil sands is leak prevention technology.

On May 14, amid heightened opposition to two planned pipelines, Canada's Natural Resources Ministry unveiled a new law making pipeline operators liable for all the costs and damages related to oil spills, regardless of whether the operators were at fault or demonstrated negligence.
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Commodities

Monday, June 02, 2014

Crude Oil Price for the Bulls or Bears? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadia_Simmons

On Friday, crude oil lost 0.61% as disappointing U.S. economic data and profit taking weighted on the price. Thanks to these circumstances, light crude declined below $103, approaching its first downside target. What’s next?

On Friday, the data showed that the Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment index ticked up to 81.9, disappointing  analytics expectations for a reading of 82.5. Additionally, the Commerce Department reported that personal spending in the U.S. dropped 0.1% last month, also below expectations for a 0.2% rise, while U.S. core personal consumption expenditures (without food and energy) rose 0.2% in April, in line with expectations. These disappointing data fueled worries that demand in the largest oil-consuming nation wouldn't be strong enough to reduce high supplies.

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Politics

Thursday, May 29, 2014

The Colder War and the End of the Petrodollar / Politics / Crude Oil

By: Marin_Katusa

The mainstream media are falling over themselves talking about Russia’s just-signed “Holy Grail” gas deal with China, which is expected to be worth more than $400 billion. But here’s what I think the real news is… and nobody’s talking about it—until now, that is.

China’s President Xi Jinping has publicly stated that it’s time for a new model of security, not just for China, but for all of Asia. This new model of security, otherwise known as “the new UN,” will include Russia and Iran, but not the United States or the EU-28.

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Commodities

Monday, May 19, 2014

Crude Oil Price At Crossroads / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadia_Simmons

On Friday,  crude oil gained 0.61% as strong U.S. economic data and ongoing worries over the crisis in Ukraine weighted on the price. Thanks to these circumstances, light crude came back above $102, but does this growth change the short-term outlook for the commodity?

On Friday, better-than-expected numbers from the housing sector gave crude oil a support. The Census Bureau reported that U.S. building permits rose 8% to 1.080 million units last month (while analysts had expected an increase to 1.010 million units in April) and the Commerce Department showed that U.S. housing starts rose 13.2% last month to 1.072 million units, beating expectations of 980,000 gain (it was the largest increase in five months).

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Commodities

Thursday, May 15, 2014

Crude Oil Boom Reaches Tipping Point / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Investment_U

Sean Brodrick writes: The tsunami of U.S. petroleum production has been underway for several years, but last month it reached a tipping point.

Global oil production plunged in March thanks to steeply lower OPEC output... while America's production soared to a 26-year high.

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Commodities

Monday, May 12, 2014

Breakthrough in Crude Oil Price Only A Matter Of Time / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadia_Simmons

On Friday, crude oil hit an intraday high of $101.18 supported by ongoing concerns over tensions in Ukraine. Despite this improvement, the commodity reversed and lost 0.20% as weaker-than-expected economic data from China and a stronger dollar weighted on the price. Because of these circumstances, light crude erased earlier gains and temporarily slipped below the psychological barrier of $100 once again. Is it enough to trigger another sizable downswing?

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Commodities

Friday, May 02, 2014

The Best Way to Profit from Peak Oil / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: The_Energy_Report

The era of cheap oil is over, declares Angelos Damaskos. In this interview with The Energy Report, the principal adviser of the Junior Oils Trust says that oil will become progressively more expensive to find, with prices topping the all-time high of $147 per barrel within 10 to 20 years. He counsels that investors should avoid the majors (too stodgy) and the pure explorers (too risky) and should instead choose producers or near-producers, highlighting five companies with good reserves and room to grow.

The Energy Report: You are the principal advisor of the Junior Oils Trust. What are the advantages of junior oil companies?

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Commodities

Wednesday, April 30, 2014

The Battle Between WTI and Brent - Why the Oil Price “Spread” is Getting Tighter / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Money_Morning

Dr. Kent Moors writes: The spread between WTI and Brent is tightening again.

What’s “the spread?”…

It’s the difference in price between what crude oil futures cost on the NYMEX in New York (the West Texas Intermediate rate) and the rate set in London (the Brent rate).

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Commodities

Thursday, April 24, 2014

Slippery Oil Prices Keep Traders on their Feet / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Submissions

Crude oil price slipped on Wednesday and came very close to reaching a two-week low after weak Chinese manufacturing data. The WTI futures contract for May sustained a loss of $2.24 per barrel after it expired on Tuesday April 22 at $102.13 from an opening price of $104.36. Brent for June was also trading low on Wednesday after it already lost 47 cents during the previous day. But the markets remain volatile as the Ukraine-Russia political tensions might cause a price rally any day.

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Politics

Sunday, April 13, 2014

Peak Oil And Global Warming – A Question Of Culture / Politics / Crude Oil

By: Andrew_McKillop

In The Beginning Was the Word

Certainly for the last 20 years these two themes have tunneled into political consciousness, but there are huge differences. Peak Oil was never “official”, but Global Warming or at least anthropogenic global warming quickly became official, in the UN system, EU28 countries, the US, Japan, Canada and Australia, and some other developed countries. Today, in the cases of Japan, Canada and Australia the political commitment has already gone, and the downstream financial spinoff from the global warming theme, which enabled market operators to concoct and play with climate credit default swaps and a host of other all-new paper assets, has seriously ebbed. Outside of these countries, in the G20 and Russia, global warming always had a much tougher ride. Yet another stark Russia-versus-the West split occurred on this issue. Russia has a long and tortuous politically-charged obsession with a coming Ice Age – not the swamping of all coastal cities by global warming melting the planet's ice caps.

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Commodities

Monday, April 07, 2014

Cheap Oil Could Be a Big Problem / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Investment_U

Steve McDonald writes: According to a recent Barron’s article, the huge shale oil and gas reserves in the U.S. and and worldwide will give a huge boost to the U.S. economy and drive oil prices down to as low as $75 in the next few years.

It only makes sense. According to optimistic estimates, the U.S. could be energy independent by 2020. That means a huge reversal of the status quo.

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Commodities

Tuesday, March 25, 2014

Crude Oil Price Still Remains Below Important Resistance / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadia_Simmons

Trading position (short-term; our opinion): Short. Stop-loss orders for crude oil and WTI Crude Oil (CFD): $102.95.

On Friday, crude oil gained 0.95% as concerns about economic sanctions against Russia weighted on the price. In this way, light crude climbed above $100 for the first time since March 11. Despite this increase, crude oil gave up the gains in the following hours and finished the day below this important barrier once again.

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Commodities

Wednesday, March 19, 2014

Crude Oil Price Remains In Consolidation / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadia_Simmons

Trading position (short-term, our opinion): Short. Stop-loss orders for crude oil and WTI Crude Oil (CFD): $102.95.

On Tuesday, crude oil gained 1.60% after information that a pipeline connecting Oklahoma storage with Gulf Coast refineries will be open sooner than previously expected. Thanks to this news, light crude rebounded, finishing the day above $99 per barrel.

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Commodities

Wednesday, March 19, 2014

Mexico Oil Market About to Break Open for Investors / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Money_Morning

Kent Moors writes: Marina and I are off again. Early tomorrow morning, I’m making my fourth trip to Mexico City in less than two years.

This time, I’ll be making a major presentation at a Bloomberg advisory session on the recent opening of the Mexican energy markets.

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Politics

Wednesday, March 12, 2014

Will OPEC Collapse – Libyan P.M. Flees To Europe / Politics / Crude Oil

By: Andrew_McKillop

Inevitable Break-up of Libya
Presaged by months of political infighting, and street fighting outside parliament, former Libyan prime minister Ali Zeidan fled from Libya, 12 March, according to newswires. Reuters explained his flight to Europe as due to parliament voting him out of office on Tuesday March 11, following his inability to stop rebels exporting oil independently. Reuters and other newswires added that the rebel forces set a “brazen challenge to the nation's fragile unity”, and had actively threatened Ali Zeidan with assassination, several times.

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Commodities

Thursday, March 06, 2014

Crude Oil Price Sharp Drop / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadia_Simmons

Trading position (short-term): In our opinion no positions are justified from the risk/reward perspective.

On Wednesday, crude oil lost 2.27% as tensions cooled in Ukraine and U.S. supply data missed investors’ expectations. Because of these circumstances, light crude erased all its gains from Monday's jump and dropped below $101 per barrel.

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Commodities

Monday, March 03, 2014

New Spy Technology to Spawn Oil Revolution / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

The future of oil exploration lies in new technology--from massive data-processing supercomputers to 4D seismic to early-phase airborne spy technology that can pinpoint prospective reservoirs.

Oil and gas is getting bigger, deeper, faster and more efficient, with new technology chipping away at “peak oil” concerns. Hydraulic fracturing has caught mainstream attention, other high-tech developments in exploration and discovery have kept this ball rolling.

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Commodities

Monday, March 03, 2014

Does the Keystone XL Pipeline Still Matter? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Ronan_Keenan

Last month it seemed the Keystone XL pipeline was nearing approval, but as with most things surrounding the project, things weren’t as they seemed. A US state department report reviewed the Alberta, Canada–Nebraska pipeline and indicated the project was unlikely to have a significant impact on climate change. This seemed like a significant positive step for pipeline, but within the details of report were critical comments from the Environmental Protection Agency.

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Commodities

Sunday, February 23, 2014

Gold and Crude Oil Short-term Outlook / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Gregor_Horvat

Gold has moved well above 1300 mark, and is forming an extended leg from 1251, triangle low. Notice that we have adjusted the wave count, but we see a corrective advance from 1181 now at 1330 resistance. We are observing more simple count now this time; a zigzag with a triangle placed in wave (b). We also know that wave (b) pattern CANNOT be labeled as wave two, because triangles never occur in wave two position. So, because of that situation we are even more confident that rally is a contra-trend and that gains will be limited. A decline beneath 1290 area could be an important sign for a confirmed top.

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Commodities

Saturday, February 22, 2014

Crude Oil Price Declines Slightly / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadia_Simmons

Trading position (short-term): In our opinion no positions are justified from the risk/reward perspective.

On Thursday, crude oil moved lower as the U.S. dollar strengthened after solid U.S. economic data and stocks of distillates fell less-than-expected. Despite this small drop, light crude still remains near a 4-month high, slightly below $103 per barrel.

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Commodities

Monday, February 17, 2014

America's 99 Problems… But Crude Oil Ain’t One of Them / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Marin_Katusa

America has some serious problems.

Despite the fact that the United States spends $15,171 per student—more than any other country in the world—American students consistently trail their foreign counterparts, ranking 23rd in science and 31st in math.

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Commodities

Friday, February 14, 2014

Oil Trading Alert: Crude Oil Price Hits Fresh Monthly High / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadia_Simmons

Trading position (short-term): In our opinion no positions are justified from the risk/reward perspective.

On Wednesday, crude oil rose on better than expected economic data from China and climbed to its highest level since late October. Despite an increase to a fresh monthly high, light crude reversed after the EIA data showed that crude inventories rose more than expected. In this way, crude oil lost 0.11%, but closed the day above $100 per barrel.

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Commodities

Monday, February 10, 2014

Crude Oil Trading Alert: Oil Price Hits Fresh Monthly High / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadia_Simmons

Trading position (short-term): In our opinion no positions are justified from the risk/reward perspective.

On Friday, crude oil gained 2.27% as the U.S. dollar weakened against major currencies after a monthly U.S. employment report came in weaker than expected. Thanks to these circumstances, light crude extended gains and rose above $100 per barrel for the first time in more than a month.

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Commodities

Tuesday, February 04, 2014

Oil Trading Alert: Crude Oil Price Extends Declines / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadia_Simmons

On Monday, crude oil lost 0.84% as weaker-than-expected U.S. and Chinese economic data fueled concerns over crude oil demand. Thanks to this news, light crude closed the day below $97 for the first time since Jan 27.

Data released over the weekend showed that China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index dropped to a six-month low, falling to 50.5 in January from 51.0 in December. This weaker-than-expected numbers raised questions about economic growth in the world's second largest oil consumer (after the U.S.) and weighted on the price of light crude.

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Commodities

Tuesday, February 04, 2014

NYMEX No Future For Crude Oil Futures / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Andrew_McKillop

Potatoes to Oil

According to Leah McGrath Goodman's well-researched book “The Asylum: The Renegades Who Hijacked the World's Oil Market", the start of Nymex oil trading was in major part due to traders who stumbled upon oil futures after screwing up Maine potato futures. Their trading “industry” or gambling party had been built on predicting the Maine potato harvest, and—much more importantly—trying to manipulate potato prices, to the point that regulators were finally forced to act. They shut down the potato futures market in 1976, after repeated defaults on physical deliveries of more than 25 000 tons of potatoes. As Goodman explains, the traders were forced to cast around for something else to trade. Then-Chairman of the Nymex, Michael Marks tried to boost futures trading in boneless beef and plywood, but that didn't work. In 1978 however, Marks hit on the right thing and introduced heating oil futures - which was the jackpot gusher that led to 30 years of good times.

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Commodities

Tuesday, January 21, 2014

OPEC Warned On 2014 Crude Oil Supply Glut / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Andrew_McKillop

TIMELY ADVICE TO OPEC
Leo Drollas, the head of the Saudi-backed, London-based Centre for Global Energy Studies in a 3 December interview with New Europe on the eve of the 4 December OPEC meeting, itemized several supply-side reasons why present high oil prices are not forever. Apart from the USA's record-breaking output of oil driven by its shale-oil production, Drollas said: “Next year, Iraqi oil will increase by 300,000 barrels a day, we think at least, there will be 250,000 more from Venezuela, there will be possibly 1 more million barrels from Iran, when Iran comes back, and Libyan oil should return”.

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Commodities

Friday, January 17, 2014

Brent Crude Oil Price Faces Headwinds in 2014 / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: EconMatters

EIA Petroleum Report

In reviewing the EIA weekly petroleum report, the oil imports figure came in at 6.889 (Million Barrels per Day) for the week ending 01/10/14. This number compared to a year ago 8.030 (Million Barrels per Day) puts a nice cap on the downtrend which really started gaining steam in 2010 onward.

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Commodities

Thursday, January 09, 2014

Violence Threatens to Thwart Iraqi Crude Oil Resurgence / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

A wave of violence has swept parts of Iraq at the start of 2014 as the central government fights back against Al-Qaeda aligned militants in Anbar Province. The Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) reportedly took control of Ramadi and Fallujah, bombing police headquarters and killing dozens. On New Year's Day Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki sent in reinforcements to take back control of Anbar Province's two largest cities. The clashes kick off 2014 in much the same way as 2013 ended – a return to violence in a country that had seen important security gains in recent years.

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Commodities

Thursday, January 09, 2014

What 2014 Has in Store for Crude Oil Prices / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: DailyGainsLetter

Mohammad Zulfiqar writes: Since September 2013, crude oil prices have come down. This has left many investors question where they are headed next. In September of last year, crude oil prices reached as high as $110.00, and now they trade almost 15% lower, around the $94.00 level. Look at the chart below to get the precise picture.

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Commodities

Saturday, December 28, 2013

Crude Oil Price Corrective Rally / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Gregor_Horvat

Crude oil is still trading to the upside towards $100 per barel. It seems that move from 96.20 is in five waves so we adjusted the wave count as market could already be making wave C, final leg of wave 4) that could turn down from 100-101 resistancea area.

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Commodities

Thursday, December 26, 2013

Relaxing U.S. Crude Oil Exports Ban is Bad News for Consumers / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: EconMatters

US Energy Boom

The US is producing much more energy domestically the last decade in all forms from natural gas to crude oil with a myriad of boutique products along the way, and so it is natural for producers to want to maximize profits by expanding their marketplace.

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Commodities

Friday, December 20, 2013

What the Fed Taper Means for Crude Oil Prices / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Money_Morning

Dr. Kent Moors writes: Yesterday afternoon, after much gnashing of teeth, the Fed finally revealed its long awaited taper plans…

And the DOW jumped by almost 300 points.

Now, the taper itself is small to start – just a $10 billion reduction for the month of January. But the announcement was coupled with a pledge to keep the fed funds rate at zero beyond the 6.5% unemployment threshold.

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Commodities

Wednesday, December 18, 2013

Collapse Looming for Crude Oil Market in 2014? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Pravda

Foreign experts provide devastating forecasts for the oil market and believe that the conflicts in the Middle East would affect the value of "black gold." According to the experts, price per barrel will fall at least five times. One of the major players, the Russian Federation, will then be in a disadvantaged position. However, Russian experts were quite amused by these forecasts.

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Politics

Monday, December 16, 2013

How China Just Grabbed 90% of Ecuador’s Oil / Politics / Crude Oil

By: Money_Morning

Dr. Kent Moors writes: I was a guest on Chinese national television last night. The discussion was via a live satellite link that had me sitting in a Pittsburgh studio with the feed traveling through their affiliate in Washington.

I’ve done this before. But this time the discussion was all about a subject I have been personally involved in.

It had to do with the big Chinese move into Ecuador – one that has given Beijing the upper hand over who really controls of the country’s oil.

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Commodities

Wednesday, December 11, 2013

Crude Oil Prices Could Fall to $80/Barrel? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: InvestmentContrarian

George Leong writes: Oil prices are heading higher on the chart with the cash West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rallying back toward the $100.00 level after threatening to test $90.00.

Steady economic signs in the United States, China, and Japan—the three largest economies in the world—along with some muted growth in the eurozone and Europe are adding some spark to the oil futures… But hold on; doesn’t the buying seem somewhat premature?

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Commodities

Wednesday, December 11, 2013

Crude Oil Price Three Legs Up To $100 / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Gregor_Horvat

Crude oil reversed sharply to the upside last week so it seems that five waves down completed wave 3) and that current rally is a part of a contra trend reaction. We are talking about wave 4) that could stop around 100 area, but after three legs. For now, we see only one leg from the lows so expect to see more sideways or even bullish price action during the next few days.

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Commodities

Saturday, December 07, 2013

OPEC Warned On 2014 Crude Oil Supply Glut / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Andrew_McKillop

TIMELY ADVICE TO OPEC
Leo Drollas, the head of the Saudi-backed, London-based Centre for Global Energy Studies in a 3 December interview with New Europe on the eve of the 4 December OPEC meeting, itemized several supply-side reasons why present high oil prices are not forever. Apart from the USA's record-breaking output of oil driven by its shale-oil production, Drollas said: “Next year, Iraqi oil will increase by 300,000 barrels a day, we think at least, there will be 250,000 more from Venezuela, there will be possibly 1 more million barrels from Iran, when Iran comes back, and Libyan oil should return”.

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Commodities

Friday, December 06, 2013

Crude Oil Price Outlook / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadia_Simmons

In our previous essay we focused on the oil-stocks-to-oil ratio and its implications for oil stocks. However, at the end of November we checked this ratio to find out what impact it could have on future crude oil's moves. At that time we wrote the following:

(...) the first thing that catches the eye on the above chart is a strong negative correlation between the ratio and the price of light crude.(...) the ratio remains in the gap between the April 2009 low and May 2009 high (...). In all previous cases, such a position of the ratio triggered a correction, which resulted in higher prices of light crude. Additionally, the ratio has approached the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level (based on the entire 2009-2011 decline), which is a strong resistance level. Taking the above into account, if history repeats itself once again and the ratio declines, we will likely see the bottom of the current correction.

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Politics

Thursday, December 05, 2013

The Future of OPEC / Politics / Crude Oil

By: STRATFOR

The prospect of revitalized oil production in Iraq and Iran may add to tensions between those two countries and Saudi Arabia over export quotas. On Dec. 4, representatives of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) will meet in Vienna to discuss a number of topics. OPEC is facing two challenges. First, OPEC's historically biggest consumer -- the United States -- is rapidly increasing its own domestic production. At the same time, OPEC must deal with plans to expand oil production envisioned both by Iraq and Iran, which could lead to lower prices than the cartel desires. Ultimately, however, emerging markets in Asia will set global demand, and their energy thirst will determine the scale of the problem OPEC faces.

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Commodities

Tuesday, December 03, 2013

Will Strong Resistance Zone Stop the Oil-Stocks-to- Crude Oil Proce Ratio’s Rally? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadia_Simmons

In our last commentary on oil stocks from Nov. 20, we examined the NYSE Arca Oil Index (XOI) to find out what the current outlook for oil stocks was. In the summary, we wrote that the combination of a strong resistance level (the upper line of the smaller rising wedge) and the position of the RSI may encourage sellers to lock profits and trigger another correction in the coming days.

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Commodities

Saturday, November 30, 2013

Brent-WTI Crude Oil Premium - Strangers In The Night / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Andrew_McKillop

STRANGERS IN THE NIGHT
'Oil & Gas Journal' in an article by RBN Energy in its July 23, 2013 edition, when the premium or differential for Brent grade oil against US West Texas Intermediate collapsed to nearly zero from highs above $25 in 2011 and 2012, and a 2013 peak of $23 to date, said that despite the rebounds and recoveries, the premium has to decline. Its fundamentals are bad, the logic is bad, and the premium has strong headwinds. For oil brokers and traders, however, the heavily traded “premium trade” is still good for a flutter on the markets. Brent's premium shook itself out of bed and jumped from $14.64 to $16.21 in the week ending Nov  22, in two days trading but fell back the following week. 

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Commodities

Saturday, November 30, 2013

Soaring U.S. Crude Oil Storage - Set to Pass 400 Million Threshold / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: EconMatters

Trend is to Store more Oil

A year ago oil in storage stood at 274 million barrels, and with another robust year of domestic production, and despite curtailed imports, the US Oil Inventory stands at 391 million barrels and climbing.

We are still technically in the building season for oil supplies which peaked in late May just shy of 400 Million Barrels, before the drawing season kicked off with the exporting of gasoline through increased refinery utilization led by the gulf coast refiners with their increased capacity to take advantage of the spread differential and cheaper operational energy in natural gas to export refined products more competitively than peer nations.

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Commodities

Friday, November 29, 2013

What the Iranian Nuke Deal Means for the Crude Oil Markets / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Money_Morning

Dr. Kent Moors writes: The big news over the weekend was the apparent “breakthrough” with Iran.

I say “apparent” because we don’t know much about the substance of the deal. The reason is because the substance doesn’t exist yet.

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Commodities

Wednesday, November 27, 2013

Crude Oil Price Balancing Act For The Trader Community / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Andrew_McKillop

MODERATION AND EXCESS
In the immediate wake of the Iran sanctions-unwinding agreement thrown together with many unanswered question in Geneva, Sunday night, Brent crude fell $2.29 or about 2.7% to settle at $108.76 a barrel, while US-traded West Texas Intermediate was down $1.44 to $93.40, in response to the agreement. Analysts were however quick to warn that Iranian exports are unlikely to jump in the short term because key limitations on sales – including a ban on crude oil but not finished product exports to the EU – will remain in place until a comprehensive deal is reached, starting six months from now.

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Commodities

Wednesday, November 27, 2013

The Iran Nuclear Deal: What the Big Six Really Have to Gain / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Marin_Katusa

Over the weekend, the world changed.

Officials from Iran made a deal with six countries (the US, Russia, China, England, France, and Germany)—in exchange for suspending the world's sanctions on Iran, Iran will curb its nuclear weapons program.

Though it's only a six-month interim agreement for now, it's an important first step toward bringing Iran economically closer to the rest of the world.

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Commodities

Tuesday, November 26, 2013

Stocks to Oil Ratio Implications for Crude Oil Price / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadia_Simmons

In our commentary from Nov. 14, you could read about the connection between oil stocks and the general stock market. Back then, we wrote the following:

(…) we clearly see that the XOI and the S&P 500 have moved roughly in the same direction in the recent years (…) a strong positive correlation remains in place also on a short-term basis.

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Commodities

Thursday, November 21, 2013

Can Oil-Stocks-to-Oil Ratio Tell Us Crude Oil Price Future Moves? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadia_Simmons

In our essay on oil stocks from Nov. 14, we focused on the connection between the XOI and the general stock market to find out what impact the S&P500 index could have on the oil stock index's future moves. Back then, we also wrote about the relationship between the oil stocks and crude oil:

(...) crude oil has remained in the narrow range, but yesterday it climbed above $95. What's interesting, at the same time the XOI increased slightly above an important resistance. Although they moved in the same direction after weeks of negative correlation, this positive correlation might be just another temporary phenomenon - especially when we factor in the weekly outlook.

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Commodities

Monday, November 18, 2013

Why is Crude Oil Overpriced? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Andrew_McKillop

POLITICAL RISK VERSUS ENERGY ECONOMICS
Expressed in terms of price for 1 barrel equivalent of oil energy at present market prices, world coal costs about $14.50 per barrel FOB (before transport costs), US domestic natural gas costs about $20.50 per barrel, while European and Asian natural gas is priced at more than $65 per barrel, but will surely and certainly decline in the next 3 – 4 years.

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Commodities

Wednesday, November 06, 2013

Crude Oil Price Shakedown / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Andrew_McKillop

BEWARE THE BULLS
As I already noted in several articles, WTI grade oil at less than $100 a barrel is something of a revolution and an open incitation for Wall street's “heavy lift brigade” to plunge protect and lift prices back up to what they think is the right level. The leading member of the heavy lift brigade, Goldman Sachs, has until relatively recently bragged that WTI could reach $125 a barrel by Dec 31st or early in the new year.

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Commodities

Tuesday, November 05, 2013

What Can We Infer From the Crude Oil Price to Oil Stocks Ratio? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadia_Simmons

The first days of the new month have been hard for oil bulls. After the breakdown below the lower border of the declining trend channel the buyers didn’t manage to stop oil bears. The bears showed their claws on Thursday and pushed the price below the October low. This event resulted in a heavy decline, which took light crude below $95. On top of that, yesterday we saw further deterioration and crude oil dropped to a new monthly low of $94.06.

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Commodities

Wednesday, October 30, 2013

Do Oil Stocks Have Better Upside Potential Than Crude Oil Price? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadia_Simmons

In the previous week the price of crude oil not only dropped below the psychological barrier of $100, but also reached a new four-month low of $95.95. On the other hand, the buyers managed to push light crude higher at the end of the last week. Earlier this week we saw further improvement and the price climbed to almost $99 per barrel.

Taking the above circumstances into account, you are probably wondering what impact they had on oil stocks. Before we examine the current situation with the oil stock index, let’s focus on the relationship between the WTI and the XOI in the short term.

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Commodities

Tuesday, October 22, 2013

Crude Oil and Its Connection with the U.S. Dollar / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadia_Simmons

The recent months have been tough for the U.S. currency. Since July the greenback has lost 6% and dropped to a new eight-month low on Friday. Investors avoided the dollar, firstly after the Fed opted against cutting its stimulus in September and then as the budget spat in Washington pushed the country close to a default. Despite this decline, yesterday, the dollar pulled back from an eight-month low as investors awaited delayed U.S. jobs data.

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Commodities

Tuesday, October 22, 2013

Crude Oil Teeters On The Brink – Of $100 A Barrel / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Andrew_McKillop

MEMORIES OF THE 1986 PRICE CRASH
Like the US debt ceiling saga – with the only possible result being more debt - the ultra-magic triple-digit dollar price of US WTI, and of course more for European Brent, needs extraordinary measures to stay that overblown. In the case of the US debt mountain the Fed does the extraordinary (over)blowing, but for oil WTI counts on heavy lifting by leading members of Wall Street's oil market manipulator clique – sometimes called “investors” - who not so long ago forecast WTI as easily able to attain $125 per barrel by December 31st.

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Politics

Thursday, October 17, 2013

Who Controls Libyan Oil? / Politics / Crude Oil

By: Andrew_McKillop

LIBYA'S BEEFEATER LEAGUE DEFENDS THE OIL
In August, Reuters reported from Tripoli:  “Libya will use all means, including military force if necessary, to prevent striking security guards at the country’s main ports from selling its crude oil independently, Prime Minister Ali Zeidan said”. Zeidan called the security guards a critical challenge to the government, because strikes at Libya’s two largest ports have pushed production and exports to their lowest levels since the civil war that ousted 42-year veteran leader Muammar Gaddafi in 2011.

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Commodities

Monday, October 14, 2013

Crude Oil Price Change of Trend or Just a Correction? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadia_Simmons

The previous week was quite hard for the oil bulls. Light crude lost almost 2% and slipped to its lowest level since July 3. When we take a closer look at the chart of crude oil we clearly see that the price of light crude remains in the narrow range between $100 and $104 per barrel. Since the beginning of the month oil bulls and bears have pushed it above or below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, however, neither the buyers nor the sellers have had enough strength to win and trigger another bigger move.

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Commodities

Thursday, October 10, 2013

Crude Oil Price Volatility on the Way? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Submissions

Tom Therramus writes: In a previous Oil-Price.net articles published in 2010 and 2011 , I discussed predictive relationships that appear to occur between large, rapid swings in oil price and recessions, stock market crashes and shifts in political polls. Given the economic disruptions that nearly always happen in the aftermath of oil shocks, it seems important to understand what is behind the timing of transient instabilities in the oil markets.

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Commodities

Monday, September 30, 2013

How to Profit From China's Crude Oil Crisis / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Investment_U

cpittman writes: America is the strongest nation on Earth, but we depend on foreign energy suppliers. In fact, we import more oil than any other country. This is our crucial weakness as a superpower.

Now, that is changing big-time in ways that are good for America and bad for China. And this change offers you extraordinary investment opportunities.

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Commodities

Monday, September 30, 2013

Is Crude Oil a Step Behind or Ahead of the Oil Index? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadia_Simmons

Tensions in the Middle East have always had an impact on everyday life around the world through their effect on the price of oil. During the last month we saw this impact very clearly. At the beginning of September, the price of light crude dropped as fears of U.S. military action against Syria faded. In the following days, crude oil declined as Libya's production recovered to nearly 40% of pre-war capacity. Higher crude oil output in Iraq was an additional bearish factor, which pushed the price lower. In the previous week, investors watched closely all the US-Iran news. On Friday, the price of oil fell as tensions eased between the United States and Iran after the Obama-Rouhani talks.

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Politics

Monday, September 30, 2013

Crude Oil Helps Unfreeze US-Iranian Relations / Politics / Crude Oil

By: Andrew_McKillop

SAVING PRESIDENT OBAMA
Missing in the diplomatic and media hoopla surrounding US-Iranian relations, for example the missing “photo op” handshake between the USA's Obama and Iran's new president Rouhani at the UN General Assembly, the three-letter-word oil was also absent.

For some, given Obama's often farcical and fumbling foreign policy initiatives, it might seem the mounting momentum for an end to Iranian sanctions is only another initiative with no real goal except saving the president. As we know, a phone call between the two turned out to be “almost as good as a handshake”. As we also know, ending sanctions and normalizing US-Iranian relation may move very rapidly – whatever Israel can do trying to slow it.

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Commodities

Thursday, September 26, 2013

Will Russia Lose Its Crude Oil Grip on Europe? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Marin_Katusa

Vladimir Putin is on a roll. Ever since the Russian president-turned-prime-minister-turned-president got into office 13 years ago, he's been deftly maneuvering Russia back into the ranks of global heavyweights. These days, he's averting cruise missiles from Syria before breakfast.

For a strategy to return Russia to superpower status, Putin had to look no farther than his own doctoral thesis, Mineral Natural Resources in the Development Strategy for the Russian Economy.

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Commodities

Thursday, September 26, 2013

Crude Oil Price Could Reverse Up from 101-103 Support Zone / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Gregor_Horvat

Few weeks back oil reversed sharply from the 112 high when a five wave rally from 91.00 area completed a larger degree of an extended wave 3). As such, the contra-trend reaction is called a corrective retracement that is now unfolding but maybe near completion.

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Commodities

Wednesday, September 18, 2013

Damascus Dodges a bullet, Make This Crude Oil Move Immediately / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Money_Morning

Dr. Kent Moors writes: Damascus may have dodged a bullet (or a cruise missile), but nothing else has changed very much. Not in terms of risk.

That explains why the "Syrian Premium" remains. It may be slightly reduced, as you'll see. But it is likely to stay with us even after the threat of a military solution has been averted.

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Commodities

Thursday, September 12, 2013

Crude Oil Prices, Syria, and the Probability of a Price Shock / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: J_W_Jones

Oil prices have been in the spotlight as the Syrian chemical weapons crisis became front and center in the media. As the political process has unfolded, price volatility in oil futures in both directions has been extreme. Oil prices have traded in a wide range the past two weeks between $104 – $112 dollars per barrel.

As a professional option trader, I wanted to look at what the implied volatility within options on oil futures was saying about future oil prices. The oil futures option chain would give me some possible clues about near and intermediate term price direction.

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Commodities

Thursday, September 12, 2013

Crude Oil Price Forecast: The "Syrian Premium" Is Not Temporary / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Money_Morning

Dr. Kent Moors writes: By an apparent agreement to place its chemical weapons under international control, Syria seems to have dodged an imminent American military attack.

Yet even as the world takes a step back from the brink, three critical questions still remain:

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Politics

Monday, September 09, 2013

Attack on Syria Could Trigger Fuel Apocalypse / Politics / Crude Oil

By: Pravda

In an anticipation of the war in Syria, the global oil market starts to shiver. A barrel of oil has recently jumped up to $115, which, according to experts, is not a limit. Some analysts give quite gloomy forecasts. They authoritatively declare that the world is standing on the verge of gasoline apocalypse.

In the Russian part of the Internet, there is a very popular forecast from U.S. expert Brandon Smith, who considers Syria a spring board for apocalypse that has been planned by the US establishment. His list of 20 looming, pretty grim events, includes those associated with the cost of oil.

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Commodities

Monday, September 02, 2013

Crude Oil Price No Breakout But the Trend Remains in Place / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadia_Simmons

From today’s point of view, it seems that the situation hasn’t changed much since our last Oil Update, because light crude is trading between $105 and $107 per barrel once again - just like it did a week ago. However, last week was very interesting and brought a significant improvement in the oil market – a positive change which, eventually, turned out to be only temporary.

The crude market is always sensitive to Middle East conflict. As you remember, prices rose to $115 on the unrest in Libya two years ago and to $110 on Iran’s nuclear program. In the previous week we saw similar price action.

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Commodities

Saturday, August 31, 2013

Syria Attack, Pipeline Politics, OPEC & the U.S. Dollar / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Jim_Willie_CB

Syria is about the last gasp for the Petro-Dollar, the emergence of energy pipeline geopolitics, the rise of the NatGas Coop, the new dominance of Russian Gazprom, the eclipse of OPEC, the fall of the house of Saud, and a grand adjustment process in global commerce and banking. Refer to trade settlement outside the USDollar and diversification away from USTreasury Bond reserves management. It took some time to realize it, but the Cyprus bank incident was a misdirected attack against Gazprom. It failed. The entire Arab Spring movement, an ambitious disruptive project waged with foolhardy ambitions, has turned on itself. Egypt fell, its US puppet discharged. The entire North African region will be in flames soon. The USGovt interfered with a grand industrialization project for European industry, to be placed on North Africa intended to take advantage of cheaper labor, available minerals, nearby resources, and easy shipping. The resentment of Europe will show up in the future. The Middle East and Persian Gulf region is shifting its salute to Russia & China, as the noisy sectarian battles have been a common fixture since long ago. Bahrain has erupted. Saudi is clamping down and converting into an Islamic police state to create the Iran-Saudi repressive bobsey twins. Chaos is the longstanding objective of the USGovt in foreign policy infection, no change in decades.

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Commodities

Friday, August 23, 2013

Gold Begins to Rally Against Crude Oil / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: DailyWealth

As we expected, the "gold-to-oil" ratio is working in gold's favor...

Back on July 26, we noted how the "gold-to-oil" ratio was ready to snap back in gold's favor. At the time, we reminded readers how this kind of "ratio trade" isn't a conventional "buy a stock and hope it goes up" trade. "Ratio trades" involve trading one asset against another asset. For example, one of the most important ratios in this group is the "gold-to-oil" ratio.

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Commodities

Thursday, August 22, 2013

Mounting Tensions in Middle East to Push Crude Oil Prices Higher? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: InvestmentContrarian

Sasha Cekerevac writes: While many Americans might be disturbed by recent news of the ongoing mass violence in Egypt, it’s unlikely that many have considered the economic impact the growing violence could have on America. And if you think the impact won’t be all that significant, you would be wrong.

Oil prices are already seeing the effects of the violence, as the market sector is extremely sensitive to any increase in political uncertainty on the world stage.

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Commodities

Tuesday, August 20, 2013

Crude Oil Price Corrective Pause Appears Complete; 110 Back in View / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Gregor_Horvat

OIL is trading slightly lower after recent reversal from the upper channel resistance line shown on the 4-hourly chart. However, we cannot ignore a three wave decline from July high which is clearly a contra-trend movement, called a zig-zag in Elliott Wave theory. With that in mind, we will continue to look for higher prices on crude oil as long as 102.15 support is in place. As such, we suspect that current set-back is wave (ii) that may look for a support in 104-105 zone, in one of the Fibonacci support levels. Reversal from there, in impulsive fashion back to 108 will be nice indication for a bullish moves, but then towards 110 level.

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Politics

Thursday, August 15, 2013

Saudi Oil Clout And The Fate Of Egypt / Politics / Crude Oil

By: Andrew_McKillop

OIL SHOCK FOR SOME – FOOD SHORTAGE FOR EGYPTIANS
Since August 14 Egypt's continuing existence as a unified state is unsure. The country may be plunged into a long and deadly civil war on the 1990s Algerian model (see my article: 'Algerian scenario for Egypt?” http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article41630.html). Since the army-led overthrow of Mohamed Morsi, July 3, showing their outright support for the coup, the Arab Gulf states rushed to supply aid to Egypt. World media announced from July 18 that the United Arab Emirates was first in line, transferring $3 billion to Egypt's central bank shortly before another $2 billion came in from Saudi Arabia and Kuwait promised $4 billion. In total Gulf Arab oil producers promised aid packages, including food and fuel, worth $12 billion after President Mohamed Morsi's ouster, throwing a lifeline to Egypt struggling to maintain food supplies for the Arab world's most populous nation, and world's No 1 importer of wheat.

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Commodities

Wednesday, August 14, 2013

Can Saudi Arabia Pump Enough Crude Oil ? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Andrew_McKillop

PREVENTING OIL SHOCK – OR CAUSING IT
One of Wikileaks' most celebrated revelations, in 2011, was a confidential mail from a US diplomat in KSA (Kingdom of Saudi Arabia) stating that he had been convinced by a Saudi oil expert named Sadad al-Husseini using data from as far back as 2005 that the nation's oil reserves are overstated by nearly 40%. The diplomat was certain that KSA could not “keep a lid on oil prices”.

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Commodities

Saturday, August 10, 2013

Why Crude Oil Price Is Poised for a Sharp Correction / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: DailyWealth

If you hold any bets on crude oil rising, we encourage you to dump them. A correction is headed our way.

A simple boating concept explains why...

Picture a boat... the kind you'd take on the ocean for a fishing trip. Now picture the Dallas Cowboys football team on the boat. If all 53 players are evenly spaced, things are fine. But if all 53 players move to one side of the boat, bad things happen. The boat tips over until lots of Cowboys are shark food.

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Commodities

Thursday, August 08, 2013

Is the U.S. Shale Oil Boom Out of Balance? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Money_Morning

Dr. Kent Moors writes: It's boom time in Texas. From the Eagle Ford shale to the Permian Basin, it's practically raining money.

Now you would think that would be a positive for the local economies. But as this boom unfolds, it is not without its own share of problems.

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Commodities

Tuesday, August 06, 2013

What's Behind July's 9% Rise in Crude Oil Prices / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Money_Morning

Tony Daltorio writes: U.S. crude oil prices finished the month of July on a very positive note. Front-month futures ended July at just above $105 a barrel.

That put those futures up about 9% for July, the largest one-month gain for crude oil in 11 months.

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Commodities

Friday, August 02, 2013

Can Crude Oil Play Super-Commodity Like 2008? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Andrew_McKillop

TIME WAS
Due to the recession, global oil demand in 2008 went down as global supply rose. Prices rose, also. Using US EIA data, global oil consumption decreased from 86.66 million barrels per day (Mbd) in the fourth quarter of 2007 to 86.34 Mbd in the first quarter of 2008. Between Q1 2008 and Q2 2008 global demand fell again, to 85.73 Mbd.

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Commodities

Tuesday, July 30, 2013

Crude Oil Shortage Meme Struggles On, And On / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Andrew_McKillop

GOLD CORE SAYS
What looks suspiciously like disguised advertising for the site, Gold Core has published a three-part report in its Market Update series on “why gold must rise”. Key arguments used by Gold Core include the parlous state of world financial markets, and what Gold Core calls a “selloff of all asset classes: stocks, bonds, commodities, and of course, silver and gold”. We didn't yet notice the selloff in stocks, and although the commodities sector has been mauled, oil prices are still at extreme, well-supported, heavily-manipulated highs. The world's green energy sector is in several ways comparable – resulting from the same basic cause of overvalued assets sucking in vast amounts of investor capital, needing a continuation of overvalued assets – or price collapse.

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Commodities

Sunday, July 28, 2013

Big Profits in the Next Oil Boom, Time to Climb Aboard / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Money_Morning

Dr. Kent Moors writes: Rail transit is about to make you some big money...in oil.

That's why I'll be headed to Dallas in late August and Calgary mid-September for extensive meetings with all of the key players.

I can promise you, that in a hurry this is going to get a lot bigger.

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Commodities

Tuesday, July 23, 2013

World's Next Major Crude Oil Find in Mineral Rich Australia? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

Australia's massive mineral exports allowed it to weather the global recession, which began in 2008, quite nicely.

The U.S. government's Energy Information Administration noted in its country's analysis for Australia, "Australia, rich in hydrocarbons and uranium, was the world's second largest coal exporter in 2011 and the third largest liquefied natural gas (LNG) exporter in 2012. Australia is rich in commodities, including fossil fuel and uranium reserves, and is one of the few countries belonging to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) that is a significant net hydrocarbon exporter, exporting over 70 percent of its total energy production according to government sources. Australia was the world's second largest coal exporter based on weight in 2011 and the third largest exporter of liquefied natural gas (LNG) in 2012."

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Commodities

Saturday, July 20, 2013

President Obama Could Give Middle Class a Bailout with Oil SPR Release / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: EconMatters

QE Fueled Market Mania

It was another crazy day of speculation in the gasoline and oil markets, typical of the QE fueled shenanigans that happen every day for the last month in equities and oil. Speculators ran WTI up to $109 a barrel, and the RBOB contract up as high as $3.16 a gallon on Friday. So expect prices at the pump to continue to rise due to wild, rampant speculation in the futures market.

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Commodities

Friday, July 19, 2013

Russia and the Next Oil Crisis / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Clif_Droke

On the global market scene, Russia has been one of the major laggards this year. The Market Vectors Russia ETF (RSX), a reflection of the country's stock market, fell 22% from its high earlier this year. RSX was testing a three-year low not more than a month ago and seemed to be in danger of breaking below this major long-term support.

Keeping in mind that the stock market is the single best barometer of future business and economic conditions, as per the old Dow Theory saw, things looked pretty bleak for Russia this summer...that is until the country caught a break from a major development in the commodities market.

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Politics

Wednesday, July 17, 2013

Oil's Middle East Fallacy, Egypt Crisis It`s Jobs Stupid….. / Politics / Crude Oil

By: EconMatters

A couple of weeks ago Egypt demonstrations led to the Mursi administration being removed from office, who was elected from the last set of demonstrations. What Mursi and many media analysts failed to realize is that the demonstrations weren`t really about democracy, religion, philosophy or ideology but were actually about jobs.

It’s the economy stupid, that is what the Egyptian people really care about, which is ironic because without a major overhaul in their country`s entire business structure, the one strategic advantage the country has is the tourist industry.

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Commodities

Tuesday, July 16, 2013

Even Oil Executives Know Crude Oil Prices are Too High! / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: EconMatters

WTI is Tracking S&P 500 last Month

It is obvious that the oil market is out of touch with the fundamentals of a sluggish global macro-economic picture, and surging domestic and international oil production right now. The problem is that Oil, and especially WTI which is being tied to the S&P 500 bullishness, (i.e., stock market at all-time highs) is completely manipulated by hedge funds and investment banks and is harmful to the economy, businesses and consumers.

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Politics

Sunday, July 14, 2013

Syria, Egypt And The Middle East Oil Price Risk Premium / Politics / Crude Oil

By: Andrew_McKillop

SYRIAN OIL
The role of Syria's disastrous civil war as a “tailwind” helping maintain oil prices at artificially high levels is easy to show. Claims by oil analysts that this civil war “will spillover and deflagrate the entire Middle East” bump up prices. The same applies to Egypt, the Arab world's biggest country now potentially facing the risk of civil war. With imagination, the contagion talk can be extended to Libya, Tunisia, the Yemen, Bahrain, the other Gulf states, and other Mid East and North African countries. The talk helps nudge up day traded prices for Brent or WTI by 50 cents or a dollar, quite regularly, but the risk and fear premium on Arab oil is highly uncertain. When we drill down to strict net export surplus fundamentals – production versus national oil demand - any claims that Syria, Egypt, the Yemen or other countries, except Libya, Algeria, Iraq and the Gulf states, are more than tiny exporters probably moving towards net oil importer status, are very hard to defend. This is a political risk premium.

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Commodities

Thursday, July 11, 2013

Crude Oil Myths and Why WTI Is a Short / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: EconMatters

The Cushing Myth

"Going along with 'drill, drill, drill' is now 'ship, ship, ship,' " said John Kilduff, energy analyst with Again Capital.” The bottleneck has been addressed in Cushing [Okla]. We're seeing those inventories plunge. We're seeing it from all the rail movement. It's having an impact, as are the pipeline reversals."

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Commodities

Wednesday, July 10, 2013

Crude Oil Trend Analysis / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Ed_Carlson

For several months I have been expecting a high in oil as of last Friday. A 34-month cycle (below) was my original suspicion for thinking so. But as you can see, the cycle calls for a high in June, not July. While the closing high in June has, as of last Friday, been exceeded, we won’t know where the closing high in July will be for three more weeks. Friday’s close at 103.22 is dead-on the 61.8% retracement of the 2008 bear market (as well as a declining trendline) giving us the perfect level at which to expect a possible top.

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Commodities

Friday, June 28, 2013

Crude Oil is the Next Major Commodity to Crash / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: EconMatters

We have seen how Gold and Silver were viciously attacked by the shorts this past week, and surprisingly Oil escaped the carnage which is interesting because in April Oil was taken down to the $86 level during the last attack on the Gold and Silver markets. This is even stranger considering the fundamentals for the Oil market are even more bearish than they were in April from a supply standpoint as exemplified by the latest EIA report on Wednesday on this week. There is little doubt however that since the easy money is gleaned from the Gold attack, the Feral Hogs will start looking for their next target, and the Oil market will be high on their list in the upcoming months as the summer driving season winds down, and bulging supplies start to weigh on trader`s sentiments.

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Commodities

Wednesday, June 26, 2013

Are You Protected from Crude Oil Price Downside? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: The_Energy_Report

Remember when oil shot up to $148 a barrel? Chen Lin does, and he sees potential for Wall Street market manipulation to push the oil price in the opposite direction—as low as $47 a barrel. Plus, he's bearish on China now. The good news is that Lin, publisher of What Is Chen Buying/Selling?, was willing to share his personal investment strategy in his interview with The Energy Report. Find out where Lin booked profits this year and get the names he's turning to for protection against oil price downside.

 

The Energy Report: What have been the most important changes in the oil and gas markets since your last interview in February?

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Commodities

Wednesday, June 19, 2013

Why the Fed's QE Policy is Bullish for Crude Oil Prices / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Money_Morning

Dr. Kent Moors writes: Most investors have followed what the Fed's QE policy has done to gold, but few realize its impact on oil prices.

Recently, I talked about how crude was beginning to occupy a position as a store of market value ("Why Oil Is Becoming the New 'Gold Standard," May 20, 2013). The development has been a direct consequence of the flight from holding gold.

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Commodities

Wednesday, June 19, 2013

Crude Oil Prices Start to Breakout / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Donald_W_Dony

Following the May 25, 2013 Market Minute titled "Is oil about to breakout to higher levels?", Light crude prices have moved over a resistance level that have contain the commodity for over six months. As this transition is in its early stages, several additional days of price advancement will be required to confirm the breakout. Nevertheless, WTI prices are firming and signals a change in traders attitude toward this commodity.

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Commodities

Tuesday, June 18, 2013

Manipulated Crude Oil Market Malarkey – Welcome Greater Fools! / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: PhilStockWorld

What complete BS the Futures are!

We started out last night, at 6pm, with the Dow Futures right at 15,000, flat to Friday's close. However, MIRACULOUSLY, by Asia's close at 4am, we were back to 15,130 (Friday's high) and you have to be high if you could read the weekend headlines we were going over in early morning Member Chat and thought that kind of move was justified! We concluded that oil futures (/CL) would be the best short at a ridiculous $98.50 so we called that line and, already, less than two hours later (8:17), we're back at the $98 line with $500 per contract profits! Maybe we should just take the rest of the week off and quit while we're ahead.

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Commodities

Tuesday, June 11, 2013

Why Soaring Crude Oil Production Growth Isn’t Helping Prices / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Profit_Confidential

Mitchell Clark, B.Comm writes: There is now pressure on oil prices.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude is getting awfully close to the $100.00-per-barrel level again. Futures traders are interpreting economic news, including last Friday’s employment report, as strength in the U.S economy.

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Commodities

Sunday, June 09, 2013

Peak Oil - A Simple, Perfect Lie for Politicians / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: DailyWealth

Porter Stansberry writes: Peak Oil was a fantastic lie.

The idea was that our ability to discover and produce higher amounts of hydrocarbon-based energy had peaked and would be forever in decline. This "inevitable" decline in energy production would destroy the modern world, as all the luxuries and technologies that we enjoy today (such as cheap electricity and automobiles) rely on these fuels.

I believe historians will look back and marvel over how we could imagine the world would run out of oil... and the incredible mania that thinking produced in the oil markets in the mid-2000s.

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Commodities

Wednesday, June 05, 2013

Potential Crude Oil Glut! Contrarian Analyst's Forecast / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: The_Energy_Report

Stepping away from the pack, Andrew Coleman of Raymond James Equity Research is making a contrarian forecast for an oil glut in 2014. Shale oil production is on the ascent, with the United States joining Saudi Arabia on the supply side, while China's hunger for oil may be sliding and demand in developed countries remains in decline. In this interview with The Energy Report, Coleman explains his thinking and names the producers best positioned to capitalize on the turbulence ahead.

 

The Energy Report: Why are you expecting an oil glut in 2014?

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Commodities

Wednesday, June 05, 2013

Crude Oil Is Trapped In A Triangle Higher Prices Seen / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: ForexPros

Oil is slow, choppy and overlapping since September 2012 , so we think that whole price action represents a triangle pattern in red wave B) that is part of three wave rally in wave (D) from June 2012 low. If we are correct, then we know that we need five sub-waves within a triangle before we may look for a push higher into C) of (D) towards 102/103 mark.

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Politics

Wednesday, June 05, 2013

Will Saudi Arabia Allow the U.S. Crude Oil Boom? / Politics / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

Technology, technology, and more technology--this is what has driven the American oil and gas boom starting in the Bakken and now being played out in the Gulf of Mexico revival, and new advances are coming online constantly. It's enough to rival the Saudis, if the Kingdom allows it to happen. Along with this boom come both promise and fear and a fast-paced regulatory environment that still needs to find the proper balance.

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Politics

Tuesday, June 04, 2013

New Arab Spring Could Breed Chaos in the Energy Markets / Politics / Crude Oil

By: Money_Morning

Dr. Kent Moors writes: Investment opportunities in the energy markets always bounce between questions of available supply and prospects for demand.

These days many commentators in the U.S. are viewing excess domestic shale gas and tight oil as a factor in restraining energy prices. Meanwhile, their colleagues in Western Europe forecast continuing economic malaise, translating into a similar result.

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Commodities

Monday, June 03, 2013

IMF Recycle Peak Oil Theory / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Andrew_McKillop

OIL AT $750 PER BARREL
Since late 2012, on several occasions, the deputy chief of financial modeling at the IMF (International Monetary Fund), Michael Kumhof, has said in interview that: "Ignoring the peak oil issue would be highly unscientific, even irresponsible".

While the IMF remains officially neutral on the subject, Kumhof and his colleagues claim to be certain that the scientific basis of their concern, which includes the thermodynamic theory of entropic energy dissipation, is inexorable. In a certain timespan - which they do not define - oil prices could rise by "up to 800%" compared with current prices. To the extent that Kumhof sets timeframes, this process of rising oil prices might begin by 2017 and, Kumhof claims, will go on "for ever".

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Commodities

Tuesday, May 28, 2013

How to Invest in Crude Oil's Final Frontier / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Money_Morning

Tony Daltorio writes: Investors searching for how to invest in oil in 2013 should be focused on these latest developments from the Arctic.

In fact, countries are racing to get a piece of what could be the final frontier for oil...

As ice melts in the Arctic region, oil and gas trapped beneath the water becomes more accessible.

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Commodities

Sunday, May 26, 2013

Is Crude Oil about to Breakout to Higher Levels? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Donald_W_Dony

Light Crude oil and the Energy Sector Select SPDR ETF (XLE) normally trade in similar trends. In early May, XLE broke above a significant resistance level of $80 and moved to a new high. However, Light Crude has failed to follow the energy ETF and remained pinned under the $98 resistance line.

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Commodities

Wednesday, May 22, 2013

Crude Oil Price Manipulation Awakens Libor, Enron Ghosts / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Money_Morning

Ben Gersten writes: Last July, we warned you that oil prices could potentially be manipulated in similar fashion to the London Interbank Offered Rate (Libor), and now a recent raid of major oil companies highlights this growing danger to the $3.4 trillion-a-year crude market.

The European Commission last week stormed the offices of Royal Dutch Shell PLC (NYSE ADR: RDS.A, RDS.B), BP PLC ( NYSE ADR: BP), and Statoil ASA (NYSE ADR: STO) as part of the ongoing investigation to find out whether companies are manipulating oil prices and, if so, how long it has been going on and the possible ramifications.

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Commodities

Wednesday, May 22, 2013

Why Crude Oil Is the New "Gold Standard" / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Money_Morning

Dr. Kent Moors writes: Something very interesting just happened at the 2013 MoneyShow in Las Vegas.

The purveyors of doom and gloom were all still hawking their services there. But the primary solution they offer - a cure-all elixir for everything that ails markets - was beginning to wear thin.

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Commodities

Sunday, May 19, 2013

Crude Oil Price Rides With The Asset Bubble - But Not Forever / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Andrew_McKillop

BUBBLE TROUBLE
Indicators as wide-ranging as real-versus-official inflation indexes, T-bond fundamentals against daytrade technicals and all major stock markets hitting the roof have a faithful tracker in the paper oil asset boom. For many, the orgy of central bank "easing" is a prime mover of this megatrend, and the attitude of central bankers can be gleaned by the comment, reported by Reuters May 13, from the head of Italy's central bank, Ignazio Visco, who is also a policymaker of the European Central Bank. Visco suggests that the ECB could cut its deposit rate below zero, effectively charging banks for parking any spare cash they do not lend. Although paper gold has now wilted, with plenty of help from market manipulators oil has temporarily, only temporarily gone the other way.

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Commodities

Sunday, May 12, 2013

Will Crude Oil Futures Stop the Fed’s QE Program? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: J_W_Jones

The sell-side analysts and economists are reminding retail investors that risk assets in the United States have been on quite a tear to the upside recently. A correction now lasts a matter of days, if not hours before the bulls push equity prices even higher.

The Federal Reserve is winning the reflation war using cheap money and massive levels of liquidity to help drive risk assets higher and interest rates artificially lower. Unfortunately for domestic investors searching for yield, they find that they are forced to incur higher levels of risk in order to satisfy their growth and income needs. There are significant risks associated with higher than average fixed income returns and the cost will be felt should we see any correction in the future.

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Commodities

Wednesday, May 08, 2013

Peak Oil Revisited - Oil Limits Are Now Debt Limits / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Andrew_McKillop

LIMITS TO GROWTH
Oil and energy limits are more complex than what we have imagined so far. The crossover from OECD Old World dominance of oil market demand, to Rest Of World dominance was more than 7 years ago, but the perception of what this means has been slow. Very slow.

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Commodities

Monday, April 29, 2013

CRUDE OIL Turns Bullish, Could See $95.00 / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: ForexPros

OIL accelerated higher on Thursday, and more importantly closed well above the upper parallel trend-line of a base channel. That's a very strong indication of an impulsive recovery, as this break (circled) usually occurs in the middle of a wave three of a five wave rally.

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Commodities

Friday, April 26, 2013

The Crude Oil Price Crash Of 2013 / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Andrew_McKillop

GOLD, OIL AND THE "SURPRISINGLY STRONG" DOLLAR
To this heavyweight trio for deciding investor sentiment in the commodities space, we can add sovereign debt, interest rates and currency valuations, in a cocktail mix that reads badly for oil above $85 per barrel - for Brent.

Exactly like gold, market manipulation to generate a Fool's Bounce and drag in latecomer investors to shred and shear, is heavily evident in the oil market. Now traditional, the short term bounces in commodity prices driven by the Eurozone merry-go-round of ECB rate easing, and the linked but totally irrational strengthening of the euro, are able to be promoted as "realistic" or "fact based".

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Commodities

Friday, April 26, 2013

Crude Oil Targets Rally to $93 / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: ForexPros

Crude Oil Is Looking Impulsive On the Intra-day Basis; Could See $93.00

Oil is forming an impulsive price action from an 87.87 swing low. The reason is recent strong reaction towards the 92.00 figure yesterday - very strong and sharp in a short period of time. That’s the personality of a third wave, so we think that the market is forming a five wave pattern. With that in mind, be aware of more upside, this time towards the 93.00 mark.

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Commodities

Wednesday, April 10, 2013

A Major Breakthrough in U.S. Oil Exports May Be Coming / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Money_Morning

Dr. Kent Moors writes: As the crude market continues to show considerable volatility, price gyrations are prompting another round of concerns over supply and production.

There isn't a shortage to worry about right now.

But whenever we have some issues on the demand side, attention shifts to the supply currently available on the market. And it's in this repetitive exercise that one of the major errors by analysts always occurs.

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Commodities

Wednesday, April 03, 2013

Bullish on Oil Prices? Two Reasons You Might Change Your Mind / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: The_Energy_Report

The downturn beginning in 2008 triggered a macroeconomic meltdown that would disrupt all markets, domestic and global. Demand for petroleum diminished just as new technologies were beginning to gush out oil and gas in never-before-seen volumes, creating a perfect storm that would depress prices. Now that oil prices have rebounded, is the worst behind us? In this interview with The Energy Report, Director of Energy Research Marshall Adkins of Raymond James & Associates discusses the events of the last five years and the near-term prospects for energy-related investments.

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Commodities

Thursday, March 28, 2013

Why Death of Peak Oil Still Won't Mean Cheap Crude Oil Prices / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Money_Morning

David Zeiler writes: Today (Wednesday) an analyst from Citigroup became the latest lemming to declare the death of peak oil.

In a report entitled "The End is Nigh," Seth Kleinman says a combination of flattening demand and rising supply will cause oil prices to slide slightly by the end of the decade to $80-$90 a barrel.

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Commodities

Monday, March 11, 2013

Why I Continue to Like Black Gold / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: InvestmentContrarian

George Leong writes: Oil is one of the most volatile of the commodities and fluctuates with the prospects of the global economy and of course the happenings in the Middle East.

Yet, if you really look forward, how can you not like oil given the growth in China and, more importantly, the emerging growth in India?

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Commodities

Wednesday, March 06, 2013

Peak Oil Is Almost Here and There's No Magic To Counter It / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

This where we stand, and it's a fairly bleak view: Peak oil is almost here, and nothing new (with the possible but unlikely exception of Iraq) is coming online anytime soon and while the clock is ticking - forward movement on developing renewable energy resources has been sadly inadequate. In the meantime, the idea that shale reservoirs will lead the US to energy independence will soon enough be recognized as unrealistic hype. There are no easy solutions, no viable quick fixes, and no magic fluids. Yet the future isn't all doom and gloom - certain energy technologies do show promise. We had a chance to speak with well known energy expert Dave Summers where we cut through the media noise and take a realistic look at what our energy future holds.

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Commodities

Tuesday, February 26, 2013

Australia Set for Largest Shale Oil Find of All Time / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Money_Morning

Dr. Kent Moors writes: Over the past few days, I have released information on what could be the largest shale oil find ever recorded.

It's located in an area of Australia called the Arckaringa Basin and contains as much as 233 billion barrels (or more) of recoverable shale oil.

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Commodities

Thursday, February 21, 2013

Why China and Saudi Arabia Mean You Should Bet on Higher Crude Oil Prices / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Money_Morning

Tony Daltorio writes: As Money Morning Global Energy Strategist Dr. Kent Moors pointed out not long ago, the sky is not falling on oil prices despite what the doomsayers believe.

There are two crucial countries that are behind the recent rise in oil prices: China and Saudi Arabia.

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Commodities

Wednesday, February 20, 2013

The Most Important Chart for Oil Investors to See / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: GrowthStockWire

Matt Badiali writes: Each new number out of the oil sector is bigger than the last...

As longtime readers know, we're in the middle of an energy revolution. The technology is advancing so quickly, it's like moving from the Model T to the Ferrari in just a few years.

And it's helping the U.S. tap incredible reserves of oil and natural gas. The latest forecasts are out... and they're shocking.

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Commodities

Monday, February 18, 2013

Crude Oil Price BUBBLEOMIX Forecast 2013 / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Andrew_Butter

When the Penny Drops that U.S.A. will be Energy Independent by 2030…

There is an excellent presentation by BP’s Chief Economist which you can find on their website http://www.bp.com...

He hits all the right nails bang on the head; (1) over the past decade 50% of America’s trade deficit was the cost of buying energy abroad, mainly oil; (2) the amount of GDP you can get from burning one barrel of oil is going up, (3) within ten-years and perhaps sooner, U.S.A. will become energy independent for the first time in fifty years (5) Peak Oil isn’t even worth talking about (6) the reason U.S.A. got into shale-gas and then tight-oil before everyone else is that in spite of all the hand-wringing and leaving aside George-W as an isolated exception-to-the-rule, economically it is still the most free place with the lowest level of government-sponsored stupidity and/or cronyism, in the world; apart from isolated pockets such as Hong-Kong, Singapore and Dubai. Well he didn’t actually say that, but in so many words, and (7) implicitly, one of these days that technology is going to be exported.

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Commodities

Tuesday, February 12, 2013

Two Reasons to Expect Greater Volatility in Crude Oil Prices / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Money_Morning

Dr. Kent Moors, A combination of rising demand and tension in the Middle East means oil prices will continue to climb.

How this plays out in the short term will have a primary impact on the profitability of oil sector investments. One conclusion is already clear. This will once again be a volatile market.

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Commodities

Tuesday, February 12, 2013

Fears aside, the Black Gold Will Prevail / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Submissions

Brentt Taylor  writes: As snowstorms rage in the U.S. Northeast, heating oil rose to its highest level in almost four months prompting discussions and predictions over the likelihood of heating oil becoming an increasingly sought-after commodity in the next few years.

Such talks have also impelled speculations about global warming being a real threat in the near future. If the cooling trend of the past few years will continue, it is unlikely that heating oil will become a superfluous commodity any time soon. If the cold winters of the past decade persist, the demand for oil will intensify and consequently push oil prices up.

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Commodities

Monday, February 11, 2013

High Crude Oil Prices And The Threat Of Market Collapse / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Andrew_McKillop

WHY DOES THE IEA WANT HIGH PRICED OIL?
The IEA, which is the "oil and energy watchdog agency" of the OECD group of countries still consuming about 50% of world total oil production and importing over 60% of world total export supplies of oil, is now actively promoting high-priced oil. It forecasts year average prices around $175 per barrel by 2017. It also militates for extreme high carbon taxes on all fossil energy, which for oil would mean a new and additional carbon tax for consumers of about $500 per tonne of CO2 emitted, that is $215 per barrel or $5 per US gallon.

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Commodities

Wednesday, February 06, 2013

Why The IEA Wants High Priced Oil / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Andrew_McKillop

THE IEA' S NEWLY FASHIONABLE QUEST
Claiming his views "are not very fashionable", the Turkish-born chief economist of the IEA, Fatih Birol, also describes the IEA's annual flagship reports the World Energy Outlook as "designed and directed" by himself - and his WEO is obliged to reflect "unfashionable" theories and goals.

These new theories and goals are: universal energy supplies for all, and massive worldwide response to the crisis of global warming. Reconciling these two themes or memes needs high priced oil. Regarding the market price for oil, the IEA pitches for $175 per barrel; concerning new energy taxes in the form of carbon taxes "to fight global warming", taxes of $500 per tonne of CO2 on all fossil energy, possibly by 2020 or shortly after, are no problem for Fatih Birol.

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Commodities

Wednesday, January 30, 2013

Why Doomsayers Are Wrong About Crude Oil Prices, Up 11% Since December / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Money_Morning

Dr. Kent Moors writes: The stock market is not the only thing that is up. Crude oil prices have jumped as well rising faster than the S&P for the past month.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) next month futures contract prices for crude oil on the NYMEX increased again last week. That marked the seventh consecutive week oil prices have gained, the first time that has happened since 2009. Overall, WTI pricing level has risen 11% since mid-December.

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Commodities

Tuesday, January 29, 2013

Blatant Price Manipulation Takes Place Every Day in Crude Oil Markets / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: EconMatters

License to steal

Every single day the oil market is manipulated, it is easy to see, right out in the open, and nobody does anything about it. It literally is like having a license to rob banks right in front of everybody, including the armed security guards.

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Commodities

Monday, January 28, 2013

Crude Oil and Energy Stocks Trend Forecast / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Crude oil has been trading ways for the past year between the 2011 high and low. The trading range through 2012 has been contracting with a series of lower highs and higher lows. This pennant formation because it is taking place after an uptrend is a bullish pattern with $110 and possibly even $140+ per barrel in the next 6-18 months.

If you look at the weekly investing chart of crude oil the key support and resistance levels area clearly marked. A breakout of the white pennant will trigger a move to the next support or resistance level. And judging from the positive economic numbers not only form the USA but globally the odds are increased for the $110+ price target to be reached sooner than later.

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Commodities

Monday, January 28, 2013

Is "Saudi America" Oil Becoming a Reality? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Money_Morning

Tony Daltorio writes: U.S. energy independence has been a dream since the oil embargoes of the 1970s. But this vision of a "Saudi America" has always been just a dream.

Investors and non-investors alike started talking in earnest about realizing that dream last November. That was after the International Energy Agency's (IEA) latest World Energy Outlook said that the U.S. would overtake both Saudi Arabia and Russia in oil output by the second half of this decade.

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Commodities

Tuesday, January 22, 2013

Why Crude Oil Prices Could Soar 40% by Summer 2013 / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Money_Morning

Ben Gersten writes: Oil prices have continued their upward move that began at the end of 2012, gaining over 8% in the past month.

Now, an oil analyst with Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (NYSE: GS) predicts Brent crude could soar much higher in the next few months.

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Politics

Monday, January 21, 2013

The Next Oil War Will be Different, China versus USA / Politics / Crude Oil

By: Andrew_McKillop

WAS IRAQ AN OIL WAR?
Probably in 50 years time, academics but not many other persons will still be talking about the subject. For plenty of historians, journalists, writers, paywrights and movie makers there is no problem at all: since the 1991 Liberation of Kuwait, the birth of al Qaeda and terror war, the 9/11 atrocities in the US, the Afghan war, the second Iraq war, and the overthrow and killing of Khadafi we have had a succession of Oil Wars either directly caused or promoted by the US. This is always denied, of course.

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Commodities

Sunday, January 20, 2013

Will Crude Oil Prices Fall In 2013? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Andrew_McKillop

LIKE GLOBAL WARMING
Recent news from scientists of the British Antarctic Survey and partner research institutions examining ice cores showing the climate record for tens of thousand of years is that ice sheet retreat due to global warming often suddenly stabilises, "for decades to centuries”, despite the warming still going on. This is also what is happening in the oil patch: all the supply-demand fundamentals say that prices should decline - but they stay high or go on growing.

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Commodities

Monday, January 14, 2013

Why You Shouldn’t Sell Crude Oil / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: InvestmentContrarian

George Leong writes: When oil prices recently fell to below $80.00, I said don’t sell.

The U.S. Energy Department increased its projections for crude oil prices for this year, adding that global oil consumption will rise to a record high in 2013. (Source: “U.S. Energy Department Raises 2013 Oil Forecast,” Bloomberg, January 8, 2012.)

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Commodities

Sunday, December 30, 2012

Nuclear Failure Sparks New Era of Oil Renaissance, $45 Oil Price / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: EconMatters

In a continuation of our series on the state of the oil industry we look at some of the other ramifications of what we are labeling the Oil Renaissance in the US, and around the world for that matter. This phrase was first proposed regarding the potential Nuclear turnaround here in the US, where companies like NRG Energy, Toshiba and many more players all along the supply chain were positioning themselves for the Nuclear Renaissance of cheap, and abundant Nuclear energy for the next 50 years.

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Commodities

Sunday, December 30, 2012

Crude Oil & Gasoline Markets End 2012 with Swollen Inventory Levels / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: EconMatters

EIA Inventory Data

In analyzing the last EIA report of the year it is noteworthy that gasoline stocks really rose the last 5 weeks of the year. The takeaway isn`t so much that gasoline inventories rose 23 million barrels the last 5 weeks of the year, wow that is some build in inventories, but the fact that Oil inventories barely budged at all during the process.

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Commodities

Sunday, December 30, 2012

Crude Oil Prices and the Fiscal Cliff / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Money_Morning

Dr. Kent Moors writes: You have heard all the stories of what will happen when the U.S. economy falls over the fiscal cliff.

As I write this, it appears that will happen--at least on paper.

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Commodities

Thursday, December 20, 2012

The Relationship between Gold and Crude Oil Price / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: P_Radomski_CFA

In the financial markets, gold is usually ascribed to the commodities category. In this group of assets you will find your good old friend, silver, along with several others metals like platinum, palladium, copper etc. Apart from that, commodities encompass a broad range of other products in the like of corn, but also crude oil, gas, minerals and other. Such groups of assets are usually traded on commodity exchanges specialized in this kind of products, for instance on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange or the London Metal Exchange.

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Commodities

Wednesday, December 12, 2012

Crude Oil Price Forecast 2013 / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Money_Morning

Dr. Kent Moors writes: One of the most important topics we discussed in Moscow last week were the various forecasts of where crude oil prices are likely to be in 2013.

These 2013 oil price forecasts were all over the place, owing to the high level of uncertainty on a number of basic elements.

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Commodities

Tuesday, December 11, 2012

Why Crude Oil Prices Could Drop Substantially / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

There's been plenty of talk about potentially radical US foreign policy changes as a result of the shale boom. While one shouldn't expect any dramatic US foreign policy move away from the Middle East, factors are influencing a greater focus on Asia. Only one thing is certain in this transforming world: The shale boom is real and the implications are many and difficult to predict.

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Commodities

Tuesday, December 11, 2012

Peak Oil or Peak Energy? – Global Shale Oil Solution / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: John_Mauldin

A consistent theme in this letter has been the connections between items that may seem to be far removed from each other but are actually linked at the very core. If you push on one end you get a reaction in what would seem to be the most unlikely spots. Today we explore the connection between the fiscal deficit and energy policy. Everyone in Washington is starting to “get religion” about wanting to fix the deficit, with serious thinkers on all sides acknowledging that there must be reform and a path to a balanced budget. Burgeoning healthcare and Social Security costs are rightly pointed to as the problem, and entitlement reform will soon be front and center.

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Commodities

Wednesday, December 05, 2012

Are the Russians on the Verge of a Major Arctic Oil Coup? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Money_Morning

Dr. Kent Moors writes: As I move into the main meetings here in Moscow, something unexpected has joined the conversations on oil prices, European pipeline prospects, liquefied natural gas (LNG) trading scenarios, and the prospects of unconventional shale.

That something is venture capital funding.

The Kremlin has developed several venture capital funds with potential state-supported investments amounting to at least $12 billion.

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Commodities

Monday, December 03, 2012

The Significant Impact of U.S. Crude Oil Production / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Frank_Holmes

The Eagle Ford shale formation lies south of our headquarters in San Antonio, Texas, giving the U.S. Global investment team a firsthand, tacit perspective on the oil and gas industry's growing natural resources phenomenon. We've witnessed how the oil activity is boosting the local economy with solid-paying jobs, a healthy housing market and strong consumer sentiment, as oil giants such as Schlumberger and Halliburton take a bigger stake in the area.

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Commodities

Sunday, December 02, 2012

WTI Crude Oil Price To Test $65 Level in 2013 / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: EconMatters

WTI closed November just shy of $89 a barrel on hopes of an improving economy. I think there is an argument for an improving economy in 2013, but it is just too early to tell how things are going to come together with the economy, and all the ramifications of basically an anti-business and social agenda political leadership of the last four years.

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Commodities

Sunday, November 18, 2012

Peak Oil And The Olduvai Gorge / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Andrew_McKillop

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe Olduvai Gorge theory of Richard Duncan was that human society would be forced back to the anthropoid ape stage of evolution by peak oil and energy scarcity, and would live like Tanzania's "Lucy" the best known precursor or human ancestor, taxonomically called "Australopithecus afarensis", of about 2 million years ago. Duncan's angle, developed in the late 1990s, was that peak oil and energy resource depletion would firstly make inevitable, then speed up this retreat and defeat of Humanity, as human society was forced back to hunting and gathering. An Internet search with Olduvai Gorge theory will produce hundreds of responses.

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Commodities

Monday, November 12, 2012

Crude Oil Price Drop Offers Investors a Discount Opportunity / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Money_Morning

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleDr. Kent Moors writes: Markets declined significantly in the wake of last Tuesday's Presidential election. In the two days that followed the S&P shed almost 3.6%.

But now the energy sector in general - and oil in particular - is poised for a major move up.

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News_Letter

Friday, November 09, 2012

Crude Oil Price and Oil Stocks Seasonality, Trend Forecast / News_Letter / Crude Oil

By: NewsLetter

The Market Oracle Newsletter October 30th , 2012 Issue #19 Vol. 6 Read full article... Read full article...

 


Commodities

Thursday, November 01, 2012

Why Crude Oil Prices Can't Collapse / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Money_Morning

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleDr. Kent Moors writes: The markets opened again yesterday after the tragic storm across the East Coast.

In a world ravaged by storms, geopolitical tensions, rising demand, supply concerns, and increasing costs, it's important to know what's really driving oil prices moving forward.

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Commodities

Wednesday, October 31, 2012

Why is Crude Oil Price Falling? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: EWI

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleAfter a losing streak, crude oil futures fell as low as $85.69 a barrel -- the lowest price since July.

Predictably, the mainstream energy market observers have blamed the drop on "global economic worries." Of course, we have pointed out before how, on one recent occasion, oil fell in the face of positive economic expectations. And on another recent occasion, oil fell despite the absence of any real news, period.

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Commodities

Tuesday, October 30, 2012

Crude Oil Price and Oil Stocks Seasonality, Trend Forecast / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleCrude oil has had some large price swings this year and another one may be on its way. This report shows the seasonality of crude oil along with where oil is trading and what the oil service stocks are telling us is likely to happen going into year end.

Since WTI Crude Oil topped out in September at the $100 resistance level (Century Number) many traders are looking for a bounce or bottom to form in the next week. Historical charts show that on average the price of oil falls during November and the first half of December.

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Commodities

Monday, October 29, 2012

Oil Prices: Global Markets Favor Brent Crude, Refineries Are Set to Advance / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Money_Morning

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleDr. Kent Moors writes: Brent and WTI crude oil prices have been on a downward trajectory. Recently Brent had declined for seven consecutive trading sessions while WTI had been down for five.

Given the importance these benchmarks have in pricing crude worldwide, it is useful to review what they are before talking about their widening spreads.

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Commodities

Sunday, October 28, 2012

Oil Nationalism: Russia Versus Saudi Arabia / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Andrew_McKillop

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleTOO MUCH
In a week where Malaysia's Petronas' buyout bid for Calgary-based Progress Energy was rejected by the Canadian government, and the rejection called "resource nationalism" by Fitch ratings, Rosneft's buyout of TMK-BP is seen as Vladimir Putin's vehicle to regain state ownership of Russia's oil fields. Rosneft was firstly handed control over Yukos Oil in 2003, by Putin's government hitting Yukos with a $26-billion tax bill which bankrupted it, followed by Putin's bundling of Yukos founder, the billionaire Mikhail Khodorkovsky, into a Siberian prison. The present buyout of TNK-BP has Rosneft acquiring BP's 50% stake of the joint venture in exchange for cash and stock, for $27 billion.

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Commodities

Friday, October 26, 2012

Crude Oil Price Falls to a 3-Month Low: Why Blaming "Soft Economy" Isn't the Answer / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: EWI

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleAfter a 4-day losing streak, on October 23 crude oil futures fell as low as $85.69 a barrel -- the lowest price since July.

Predictably, the mainstream energy market observers have blamed the drop on "global economic worries." Of course, we have pointed out before how, on one recent occasion, oil fell in the face of positive economic expectations. And on another recent occasion, oil fell despite the absence of any real news, period.

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Commodities

Friday, October 26, 2012

Putin Is the New Global Oil Shah / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Marin_Katusa

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleMarin Katusa, Casey Research : Exxon Mobil is no longer the world's number-one oil producer. As of yesterday, that title belongs to Putin Oil Corp – oh, whoops. I mean the title belongs to Rosneft, Russia's state-controlled oil company.

Rosneft is buying TNK-BP, which is a vertically integrated oil company co-owned by British oil firm BP and a group of Russian billionaires known as AAR. One of the top-ten privately owned oil producers in the world, in 2010 TNK-BP churned out 1.74 million barrels of oil equivalent per day from its assets in Russia and Ukraine and processed almost half that amount through its refineries.

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Commodities

Wednesday, October 24, 2012

Peak Price Not 'Peak Oil', Free 26 Page Report / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: EWI

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleGreetings,

In July 2008, when crude oil prices were at $148 a barrel and "peak oil" bulls were forecasting a rise to $200, even $300 a barrel, contrarian technical analyst Robert Prechter took the opposite stance:

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Commodities

Wednesday, October 24, 2012

From Bin Laden To Biofuels - Quant Easing And Energy Security / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Andrew_McKillop

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleSACRILEGE
Many times, Bin Laden and his lieutenants would issue communiques loaded on floppy disks which were intercepted, translated and very creatively interpreted by the CIA's well paid Arabists. Concerning oil, The Bearded One was severe: the impious, even sacriligious West would be punished by oil at $144 a barrel and economic ruin would ensue. In July 2008, going not one better but three dollars better, Goldman Sachs goosed oil prices to $147 a barrel but economic ruin had already ensued. Quantitative Easing was invented, another semi-mystical cultural product of the impious West, whereby about $35 trillion of "new money" was invented since 2008, but disappeared like Bin Laden. To be sure there are differences between the two stories: Goldman Sachs did not receive a helicopter visit from Navy SEALS for its oil price-gouging tricks, but that is only a detail of history.

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Commodities

Thursday, October 18, 2012

Will an OPEC Nation's Runaway Inflation Spark an Crude Oil Bull Market? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Marin_Katusa

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleMarin Katusa, Casey Research writes: In the third century, greed got the best of Rome's emperors. As they spent through the silver in the treasury, one emperor after another reduced the amount of precious metal in each denarius until the coins contained almost no silver whatsoever.

It was the world's first experience with currency debasement and hyperinflation. As people saw the value of their savings evaporate, society grew angry and demanded a scapegoat. Christians became that scapegoat, and Romans turned on them with incredible violence.

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Commodities

Thursday, October 18, 2012

Crude Oil Prices - Goldman Revises Down / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Andrew_McKillop

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIce sheets retreating due to global warming often suddenly stabilise for “decades to centuries” no matter that the warming is still going on, scientists of the British Antarctic Survey and partner research institutions have found. It would seem that current predictions of sea level rises to be expected on a given timescale with a given amount of global warming will need to be revised - downwards. System stability is much higher than previously thought - or hoped by global warming hysterics.

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Commodities

Thursday, October 18, 2012

Obama And His Oil Pipelines / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Andrew_McKillop

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe Romney-Obama debate this week and once again featured attempts by both candidates to work "energy crisis" into the sparring and thrusting, to show how badly the opponent got his facts wrong and will only let things get worse if he either stays president, or becomes president. Obama kicked off with the one-liner that "because the economy was collapsing when I took office", gasoline prices in the US averaged a low $1.86 a gallon. Higher prices today are obviously a proof the economy is doing nicely, in fact using Obama's metrics, more than twice a nicely as in 2009 ! Economists might not agree.

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Commodities

Wednesday, October 17, 2012

Forget Renewable Energy, We Need Cheap Oil / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleWhat does our world's energy future look like? Does renewable energy feature as much in the energy production mix as many hope it will? Will natural gas and fracking help reduce our dependence upon oil and how will the world economy and trade fare as supplies of cheap oil continue to dwindle?

To help us take a look at this future scenario we had a chance to chat with Gail Tverberg - a well known commentator on energy issues and author of the popular blog, Our Finite World

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Commodities

Sunday, October 14, 2012

IEA Still Drumming For High Priced Crude Oil / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Andrew_McKillop

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe IEA's latest Oil Market Report, released 12 October, maintains the IEA storyline of global oil shortage and extreme high prices being almost certain - by about 2017 - unless and until the 28 OECD member countries of the IEA enact and pay for a whole range of new energy policies and programs.  For a flavor of these heavily promoted big-spending policies and programs from the IEA, high level conferences like its 'Clean Energy Future' ministerial meeting held in London, 25 April (for which the IEA Web page no longer exists) provide all that is needed.

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Commodities

Saturday, October 06, 2012

Syrian Civil War Impact On Crude Oil / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

There is a popular belief in the Middle East that Washington's foreign policy, particularly as it relates to this precarious region, is largely driven by America's dependency on, and insatiable appetite for Arab oil. One can make a good argument for that.

Had Syria been a major oil producing country chances are the US would have already dispatched military forces to impose a pax Americana and to put a stop to the horrific fighting that has been slowly, but without any doubt, ripping Syria apart and dismantling the infrastructures that make the Syrian state what it is today. Even if the war was to end today it would take years for Syria to return to its pre-war position from an economic and military perspective.

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Commodities

Friday, October 05, 2012

Crude Oil Fundamentals And Overpriced Oil / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Andrew_McKillop

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleFUNDAMENTALS?
After another "severe correction" on 3 October, another magnificent dead tiger bounce in oil prices as traders decided the correction had been "overdone". The Syrian crisis is looking to spill over the Middle East, Iran bombing is back on the menu, US gasoline supplies are down a little due to a refinery fire - but above all the oil trading and financial community, and Big Energy need overpriced oil.

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Commodities

Wednesday, October 03, 2012

Why Crude Oil Prices Are Entering a "New Normal" / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Money_Morning

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleDr. Kent Moors writes: One of the things I have learned from almost four decades of doing this is that oil and gas specialists know a great deal about what they do for a living.

However, few of these specialists really understand enough about what the person to the right or left of them does. This tends to breed tunnel vision.

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Commodities

Monday, October 01, 2012

Crude Oil New $75 Floor Price / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Andrew_McKillop

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleOil analysts, pundits and commentators are getting a hold on the rising threat of what is called "severe correction" hitting oil markets. The 2008-2009 sequence where Nymex prices crashed from a peak around $147 a barrel to about $40 are relatively fresh in the mind. The rebound was also dramatic, pushing prices through 2010 back over the 100-dollar mark into low triple digits by Q1 2011.

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Commodities

Sunday, September 30, 2012

Islamic Revolution in Saudi Arabia Would Send Crude Oil to $300 / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Marin_Katusa

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleMarin Katusa, Casey Research writes: There is little that would rock the oil world more than a revolution in Saudi Arabia.

But with a coming leadership crisis, it is becoming all too likely.

Saudi is facing major economic challenges as dramatic increases in social spending and domestic fuel consumption eat through the kingdom's all-important oil revenues.

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Commodities

Sunday, September 30, 2012

Are Falling Crude Oil Prices Predicting A Stock Market Fall? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Sy_Harding

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleWhen the economy slowed in the summer of 2010 and the Fed launched QE2, commodity prices took off like a SpaceX rocket. The price of crude oil reversed to the upside along with the stock market, surging up 64%, from $70 a barrel to $114 a barrel eight months later in April, 2011.

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Commodities

Sunday, September 30, 2012

Crude Oil And The Dead Cat Bounce / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Andrew_McKillop

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleFUNDAMENTALS
What crisis? Nymex and ICE oil price movement shows how oil prices can be moved anywhere as long as its up, except of course when its down, where fundamentals point with stubborn determination.

Recent weeks, especially the last show that sometimes the oil bulls can get dispirited and run out of news support, and be forced to take a cut in their boundless optimism which says we really can have $130 a barrel for Brent and $125 for WTI like Goldman Sachs tells us we can - this year, in 2012. When the markets take an especially hard hit, like the recent loss of $10 off the barrel price, the dead cat bounce can take the shape of a Goldman tiger bounce - paper tiger of course.

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Commodities

Thursday, September 27, 2012

QE3, SPR Release and Gasoline Prices / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: EconMatters

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleWith crude oil accounting for 65% of the price of gasoline, there's typically a high correlation between the price of oil and gasoline. However, there's been a disconnect between the two for the most part of this year. The main reason for the disconnect is the divergence of supply market fundamentals.

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Commodities

Wednesday, September 26, 2012

Crude Oil Prices are Headed Higher / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Money_Morning

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleDr. Kent Moors writes: My latest trip to London may have centered on the briefings I gave on Iranian oil sanctions, but I also did a number of media appearances.

As I have mentioned before, questions from European interviewers are generally more knowledgeable and to the point than in the states. This may be because places like London are much closer to the events directly affecting oil prices.

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Politics

Tuesday, September 25, 2012

Oil Shocks From The Lost Ark / Politics / Crude Oil

By: Andrew_McKillop

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleTIME WAS
On Sept 24, 2012 Bloomberg ran an article probably written way back in the 20th century - perhaps 1974 - but strangely lost in transmission to Bloomberg's editorial offices. For reasons best known to Bloomberg, it decided to publish this article unchanged with all its original, laughable errors.

The article by Jeff Rubin starts by telling us that "for most of the last century" (probably not the 19thC), cheap oil powered global economic growth. Rubin adds that when oil prices doubled, and then doubled again, this "permanently shackles the growth potential of the world’s economies". He adeptly forgot to mention that when oil prices halved, and halved again little or nothing happens to un-shackling economic growth.

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Commodities

Thursday, September 20, 2012

You Can Drill All You Want, Oil Prices Are Still Headed Higher / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Money_Morning

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleDr. Kent Moors writes: Today I want to focus again on oil prices. It seems that some TV pundits have never heard (with apologies to Alexander Pope) that a little knowledge is a dangerous thing.

Some people on Wall Street believe that by scaring the individual investor they stand to make a greater profit for themselves.

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Commodities

Wednesday, September 19, 2012

Why Bernanke Refuses to Let Crude Oil Prices Fall / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Clif_Droke

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleA prominent symptom of the final deflationary phase of the 60-year/120-year cycle scheduled to bottom in 2014 is, ironically, asset price inflation. While this may seem contradictory at first glance, it makes perfect sense after closer scrutiny. Asset price inflation is the central bank’s response to the destructive undercurrent of economic deflation. It requires a decisive action, as the recent QE3 initiative showed.

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Commodities

Tuesday, September 18, 2012

Arab Spring and Crude Oil Prices / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Crude oil prices hit a four-month high this week on the back of rising tensions in the Middle East and North Africa and the unfortunate murder of the U.S. ambassador to Libya. Added impetus on the upside was given to oil by the announcement of more money printing (QE3) by the Federal Reserve which said it would launch an open-ended  commitment to purchase $40 billion of mortgage-backed securities monthly.

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Commodities

Sunday, September 16, 2012

The Next Recession Will Be Triggered By Crude Oil / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Toby_Connor

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleI was confident that the Fed had already begun printing. That seemed quite evident by the overall action in the commodity markets, the dollar, and the fact that stocks were unable to correct in the normal timing band for a daily cycle low. However, I didn’t really expect Ben would come out and publicly admit it. That one took me by surprise Thursday. I guess Bernanke wants to get full value for his attack on the dollar and make sure that markets are rising into the election.

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Commodities

Wednesday, September 05, 2012

U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserves: The New Monetary Tool? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: EconMatters

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleOil and commodities are rising with renewed talk of buying bonds in Europe and future stimulus from the Federal Reserve in the United States. The problem of course is that higher oil prices partially offsets some of the benefits of these Monetary Initiatives by leaders (It is debatable how effective these policies actually are in solving the real issues and problems).

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Commodities

Friday, August 31, 2012

The Real Cause of High Oil Prices / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleNowadays the energy picture is confusing at best as the more information we are shown the more blurred our vision seems to become. Mixed messages, poor reporting and a media hungry to sensationalize anything it thinks can grab a headline have led to many wondering what the true energy situation is. We hear numerous reports on how the shale revolution will transform the energy sector, why alternatives are just around the corner, why advances in oilfield extraction techniques and new finds will help to lower oil prices. Yet no sooner have we read these rosy reports than we are bombarded with negative news on the Middle East, on why alternatives will never compete, on peak oil and declining oil production.

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Commodities

Wednesday, August 29, 2012

Uncovering the Real Price of Peak Oil / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Casey_Research

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleDoug Casey, chairman of Casey Research and expert on crisis investing, is on the search for real wealth – not investments in companies that push around paper. In this exclusive interview with The Energy Report, Casey shares his pragmatic take on what's next for oil, gas, and nuclear power.

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Commodities

Tuesday, August 28, 2012

Ignore the Crude Oil 40 Doom-and-Gloom Crowd / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Money_Morning

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleDr. Kent Moors writes: I just returned from a week down South with a few of my energy clients. It's good to get my hands dirty and remind myself firsthand what is going on at the project level of some of the country's top energy companies.

But when I returned home this weekend, I made the mistake of flicking on the television and opening the newspaper.
I can't believe that the pundits are now predicting that oil will fall to $40 a barrel. They also are projecting that the entire natural gas sector is going to collapse.

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Commodities

Thursday, August 23, 2012

The Most Important Economic Event of Your Lifetime Is Now Underway / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: DailyWealth

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticlePorter Stansberry writes: You're not hearing about it in the mainstream press, but I believe the most important economic event of our lifetimes is now underway...

This event has been spurred on by a widespread belief that oil and natural-gas resources were in a permanent decline (the concept known as "Peak Oil").

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Politics

Thursday, August 23, 2012

Unsettling Development for Washington, Venezuela Ramps Up China Oil Exports / Politics / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

The biggest geostrategic change of the past decade overlooked by Washington policy wonks in their fixation on their self-proclaimed "war on terror" is that Latin America has been throwing off the shackles of the Monroe Doctrine.

These ignored developments may well soon refocus Washington's attention on the Southern Hemisphere, as Venezuela's President Hugo Chavez reorients his country's to China.

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Commodities

Tuesday, August 21, 2012

Why a Strategic Petroleum Reserve Release Won't Help Crude Oil Prices or President Obama / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Money_Morning

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleDr. Kent Moors writes: With oil prices showing no signs of retreat during the final months of the U.S. presidential campaign, beltway insiders are turning to one misguided solution to combat rising oil prices.

Releasing oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR).

Trial balloons floated all over Washington during the past few days. The only reason politicians didn't move on this sooner (say a few months ago) was the price level.

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Commodities

Saturday, August 11, 2012

Crude Oil Price Spike on QE3 Expectations Should be a Warning to the Fed / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: EconMatters

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleCrude Oil prices for WTI were just $78 dollars in July, a month later they are $93.40 with supplies well above their five year average range, China decelerating at a rate not seen since the financial crisis, and US gasoline demand down 4.2 percent year-on-year and distillates down 2.8 percent.

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Commodities

Tuesday, July 31, 2012

Where Are Oil Prices Headed? Is the Eurozone Doomed? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleAs markets continue to yo-yo and commentators deliver mixed forecasts, investors are faced with some tough decisions and have a number of important questions that need answering. On a daily basis we are asked what's happening with oil prices alongside questions on China's slowdown, which commodities or instruments will provide safety in the current environment, will the Euro-zone split in the future and what impact the presidential election is going to have on the economy and markets?

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Commodities

Thursday, July 26, 2012

Gold and Silver Jump to 3-Week Highs as ECB Chief Draghi Promises to Print Euro's / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Adrian_Ash

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe WHOLESALE-MARKET gold price leapt more than 1% inside an hour in London trade Thursday morning, setting 3-week highs above $1620 per ounce after European Central Bank chief Mario Draghi said "The ECB is ready to do whatever it takes to preserve" the single Euro currency.

"And believe me, it will be enough."

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Commodities

Thursday, July 26, 2012

The Hidden Cost of Peak Oil / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Money_Morning

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleDon Miller writes: Most of what you've heard about "peak oil" is wrong.

In fact, there's a hidden cost to peak oil that's very real. And it's coming to a pump near you any day now.

I know you've read the same headlines that I have...how we are going to "frack" our way to energy independence by exploiting shale oil and other unconventional sources.

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Commodities

Monday, July 23, 2012

Crude Oil Prices Heading For A Fall / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Andrew_McKillop

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe week ending 20 July had vintage scenes from the 2008 epoch, as oil boomers bid up prices with such gusto they were able to grab 3%-a-day rises, midweek, but by weekend the cold chill of reality was trmming their sails. Although this was a vintage spectacle for a global oil market where the biggest brokers, bankers and traders both need and want higher oil prices, oil prices are set on greasy skids, oiled by a slew of so-called fundamentals. These include stubbornly slowing world demand, growing stocks, OPEC overproduction, increasing NOPEC output, large new finds of shale oil and stranded "greasy gas" able to yield NGL output, and oil's declining share in the global energy mix.

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Commodities

Wednesday, July 18, 2012

Whatever Happened to $200 Crude Oil? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Raul_I_Meijer

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleJeff Rubin, former chief economist with Canadian bank CIBC, is very well known for his predictions of exponentially increasing oil prices (see for instance this 2009 lecture). Mr Rubin’s position was that prices would continue their rise due to a confluence of circumstances - that conventional supplies have peaked, that unconventional sources are expensive to produce and that demand would continue to grow with the energy requirement inherent in expanding global trade.

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Commodities

Tuesday, July 17, 2012

Are Crude Oil Prices Also Manipulated Like LIBOR? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: DK_Matai

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleA critical report commissioned by the G20 group of the world's biggest economies has warned oil prices could be vulnerable to a LIBOR-style rigging scandal.  The G20 study conducted by the Madrid-based International Organisation of Securities Commissions (IOSCO) has found that the current system of oil price reporting is "susceptible to manipulation or distortion".  The report for global finance ministers states that:

1. Bank traders;

2. Oil companies; and

3. Hedge funds

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Commodities

Monday, July 16, 2012

The Big Problem for Energy Investors / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: DailyWealth

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleMatt Badiali writes: Oil prices are going to fall lower than you can imagine.

They've already dropped from nearly $110 a barrel in February to under $80 late last month. They've since staged a recovery to the $85 area. But the drop is not over. In fact, I think there could be more than 50% downside from these levels.

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Commodities

Friday, July 13, 2012

The Supply Side of Crude Oil / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Elliot_H_Gue

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleOil supply growth from countries outside OPEC should grow by roughly 660,000 barrels per day, with North America accounting for much of this uptick in production. Preliminary data from the US Energy Information Administration indicates that domestic crude oil production in April surged by 567,000 barrels per day from year ago levels. Robust drilling activity in unconventional plays such as the Bakken Shale in North Dakota and the Eagle Ford Shale in south Texas fueled much of this growth.

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Commodities

Friday, July 13, 2012

Crude Oil on the Slippery Slope / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Andrew_McKillop

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleOPEC NEWS IS NO NEWS
Oil output by the producer states in the cartel is falling, with the largest loss by Iran, for highly obvious reasons - the western embargo - but not at all so obvious, Iran's large cutback in crude oil exports, due to the embargo, will be joined by a significant fall in Iranian imports of refined products, especially middle distillates and gasoline. For the more-than-somewhat oversupplied and nearby European market for these products, the price impact can only be downward, with the leading indicator being stocks and refinery runs in Europe. Refinery runs, already low, and stocks which are high, will likely go further down and up with European refiners trying to recoup some of their losses by exporting more gasoline to the US, impacting US crude demand for refining.

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Commodities

Tuesday, July 10, 2012

Four Things Suppressing Crude Oil Prices Today / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Money_Morning

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleDr. Kent Moors writes: The collapse of talks between Iran and the "Big 6" (the five permanent members of the UN Security Council plus Germany) should have accelerated international crude oil prices.

And yes, they are higher.

But the real spike hasn't hit. Not yet.

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Politics

Monday, July 09, 2012

Crude Oil And National Security / Politics / Crude Oil

By: Andrew_McKillop

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleTHE WIDENING GULF
Oil and national security were at one time treated like they meant the same thing, using the extra loop of logic that cheap oil = economic security. Today, Goldman Sachs, and other major financial market players are pulling out all the stops, using all the tricks to try and stop oil prices from falling. High oil prices are now a critical prop to the world's failing financial, banking, monetary and trading systems.

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Commodities

Wednesday, July 04, 2012

The Godmother Ran Out Of Luck: Saudi And Global Oil / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Andrew_McKillop

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIn a recent (29 June) Market Oracle article, Andrew Butter writes: "One suspects that behind the Saudi rhetoric about keeping oil prices fair for the sake of the world economy and world peace…like a modern day fairy-godmother-of-last-resort, there is the thought that if prices stay above $120 or so for long then some serious E&P investment is going to get directed into that area, rather like the investment in the North Sea in the 1970’s which kept prices a long way lower than “fair”…until that oil ran out".
Quite right, but the not-so-new Saudi Nice Price of $75 is now cheap oil, and itself proves we have Peak Oil in a wholly unexpected way.

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Commodities

Wednesday, July 04, 2012

Unconventional Oil is NOT a Game Changer / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Raul_I_Meijer

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleOil prices have been falling.

This is no surprise to us here at The Automatic Earth, as our position is that the 2008 price peak will stand for a very long time, and that the rise from the 2009 low has been a counter-trend rally. Prices of many assets have been moving with the ebb and flow of confidence, and therefore of liquidity, in this era of extreme financialization, and commodities are no exception.

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Commodities

Monday, July 02, 2012

Is Oil Overvalued? Or are we just seeing temporary weakness in the Price of Crude Oil / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Submissions

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleBy Larry Cyna:

Canadian Oil Sands Prices as an Indicator
In recent months there has been an anomaly between world oil prices and the price of oil coming out of the Canadian Oil Sands. Because of transportation issues Canadian heavy oil has been receiving less value than the world price of oil. They say that this is a temporary anomaly and perhaps it is so. But this differential is but an indication of weakness in the price of oil everywhere.

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Commodities

Friday, June 29, 2012

Shale Oil Stocks are Poised to Earn Investors Big Profits / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Money_Morning

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleDon Miller writes: With oil production soaring in the United States, shale oil stocks will be pumping out profits for years to come.

It's all thanks to huge deposits of shale oil.

At least four new major shale oil plays including the Bakken in Montana and North Dakota, the Eagle Ford in Texas, and the Marcellus in Pennsylvania and New York, may have more than 20 billion barrels each of recoverable oil.

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Commodities

Friday, June 29, 2012

Crude Oil Price Bubbleomics Impact on EP Valuations / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Andrew_Butter

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleJust so you know, my interest in oil prices is not because I trade (I don’t), or that I care about global warming, tree-hugging, or America’s bill to buy oil, all I care about is the price; because that drives the value of companies and projects I’m involved in.

This is an update on an article posted eighteen months ago called Crude Oil Price Forecast to 2020. The issue then was the specter of Peak Oil.

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Commodities

Tuesday, June 26, 2012

Waiting For Russia And Saudi Arabia: Crude Oil Prices Will Fall / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Andrew_McKillop

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleAs of June 25, Brent and WTI grade crudes continue to show weaker price trends despite one or two previously sure-and-certain price tweakers towards the upside, that no longer work today. In fact, the biggest should-be tweaker, tropical storm Debby, itself shows how fundamentals are stacking up and driving down oil prices. When prices attain about $75 per barrel for WTI, and more for Brent, this will draw squeals, threats, promises and posing from Saudi Arabia and Russia.

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Commodities

Sunday, June 24, 2012

Crude Oil Price To Fall Further? Saudi Seeks To Checkmate Iran and Russia / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: DK_Matai

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleForget the plunge to $80 a barrel, there are new predictions emerging that oil could fall further to between $60 and $40 per barrel by this autumn.  Why? There are many factors at work and Saudi Arabia is one of them.  Saudi oil minister Ali al-Naimi has made no secret of his desire to curb high oil prices in order to provide a "stimulus" for the stalling global economies.  If the price of oil continues to fall that is obviously great news for motorists around the world but this is not so good for Russia and Iran because their budget trajectories don't balance below $100+ a barrel.  Countering the threat from those two countries is very important to the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia because:

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Commodities

Wednesday, June 20, 2012

Oil Price Differentials: Caught Between the Sands and the Pipelines / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Marin_Katusa

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleMarin Katusa, Casey Research writes: One of oil's most important characteristics is its fungibility, which means that a barrel of refined oil from Texas is equivalent to one from Saudi Arabia or Nigeria or anywhere else in the world. The global oil machine is built upon this premise – tankers take oil wherever it is needed, and one country pays almost the same as the next for this valuable commodity.

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Commodities

Sunday, June 17, 2012

Crude Oil Demand Recovery Is Unlikely / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Andrew_McKillop

Best Financial Markets Analysis Article"World oil consumption will rebound next year as the global economy recovers, according to a report released by the Paris-based International Energy Agency which said it expects global oil demand to grow 1.7%, for an increase of 350,000 barrels per day from its previous estimate".

The only problem with the serial oil demand growth-forecasting reports from the IEA is the above example dates from.... September 2009. At that time, crude for November delivery was trading around $71.75 a barrel for WTI grade.

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Commodities

Wednesday, June 13, 2012

Why We Need Expensive Oil / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Andrew_McKillop

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleTo some it can seem a joke, but the new definition of "expensive oil" is about $75 a barrel. Even worse fol oil producers, $75 a barrel is rapidly becoming the base price for financially feasible oil production development strategies. Above all, the old paradigm of extreme high oil prices is long dead.

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Commodities

Friday, June 08, 2012

The Best ETFs for Any Move in Crude Oil Prices / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Money_Morning

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleLarry D. Spears writes: Crude oil prices have been hammered of late.

The cost of oil fell 21.8% between May 1 and June 1 - from $106.50 to $83.23 a barrel - the sharpest monthly drop since December 2008.

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Commodities

Tuesday, June 05, 2012

Disruptive Economics Accelerating Global Energy Change / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Andrew_McKillop

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleOil analysts already integrate “disruptive technology” in the shape of hybrid and all-electric cars in their forecasts of probable, at least possible decline in the total oil demand of the world's two-largest car fleets - in the EU27 and USA - and in the world's fastest-growing fleets of China, India and other smaller emerging economies.

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Commodities

Monday, June 04, 2012

Will the Oil Bubble Pop Down to $67 This Time: If so that’s Good News / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Andrew_Butter

Best Financial Markets Analysis Article The story so far:

1: There was a bubble in oil prices in 2008. The evidence for that is it popped which is a pretty good clue; although so far no one has figured out what drove the bubble. Yes it was probably speculators with access to easy money, but sadly no smoking gun has been found, although one gets the impression no one looked very hard.

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